Los Angeles Times - 08.09.2019

A6 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2019 S LATIMES.COM

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Your

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2. 
   

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APR

peatedly saying a partial
pullout was all but assured.
But on Saturday he sug-
gested he was prepared to
keep fighting America’s
longest war, and questioned
whether the Taliban would
as well.
“How many more dec-
ades are they willing to
fight?” he tweeted.
A durable peace agree-
ment was hardly a certainty
before Trump’s announce-
ments on Saturday.
On Monday, Zalmay
Khalilzad, the top U.S. envoy
to the peace process, an-
nounced in Kabul that an
“agreement in principle”
had been reached with the
Taliban. But he faced stiff
pushback from the Afghan
government, which feared
that a declining American
presence would embolden
Taliban forces who continue
to terrorize the capital and
other areas.
A massive car bomb dur-
ing morning rush hour
Thursday killed 12 people,
including a Romanian sol-
dier and a U.S. Army para-
trooper, near the U.S. Em-
bassy and the NATO mis-
sion in Kabul. It brought the
number of American mili-
tary deaths in Afghanistan
this year to 16.
“Peace with a group that
is still killing innocent peo-
ple is meaningless,” Ghani
said in a statement as at
least three car bombs left
scores of civilians dead. By
Friday, Khalilzad was back
in Qatar to talk to the Tali-
ban.
The draft deal would
have allowed the Pentagon
to withdraw about 5,
troops by next spring, leav-
ing roughly 8,600 in place.
The remaining U.S. forces
would support Afghan
troops with training,
airstrikes and special forces
operations, but could be
withdrawn in phases if the
Taliban met its promises not
to allow operations by Is-
lamic State, Al Qaeda or
other terrorist groups in
areas it controls.
The Taliban has de-
manded the immediate
withdrawal of all U.S. and
NATO troops, and it has re-

fused to conduct formal ne-

gotiations with Ghani’s gov-

ernment, which it considers

illegitimate. The militants

also have refused, at least for

now, to a cease-fire in a con-

flict that has seen a surge of

both U.S. airstrikes and Tali-

ban attacks this year.

The draft deal reportedly

calls for negotiations in Nor-

way between the Taliban

and an Afghan delegation

that includes government

officials. The goal of the

Afghan talks would be to ne-

gotiate a cease-fire and de-

cide the country’s political

future, a far more compli-

cated challenge given the

country’s bloody past.

Analysts and Afghan

government officials warn

that a weak deal could allow

the country to backslide

into civil war — like the anar-

chic conflict that raged in

the 1990s after Soviet forces

withdrew and fueled the

Taliban’s rise to power —

or again become a haven

for terrorist groups like

Al Qaeda.

“The people of Af-

ghanistan have been bitten

by this snake before,” Wa-

heed Omer, director of pub-

lic and strategic affairs, told

reporters Thursday in

Kabul. “They have seen the

results of hasty deals, of

deals they and their voices

weren’t part of.”

The best-case political

scenario — some type of

eventual power-sharing ar-

rangement between an

elected Afghan government

and the Taliban — would be

a sober reminder of the limi-

tations of U.S. power.

“It’s not going to become

Switzerland in the Hindu

Kush,” said Luke Coffey, a

former U.S. Army officer

who served in Afghanistan

and now researches foreign

policy issues for the Herit-

age Foundation, a conserva-

tive think tank in Washing-

ton. “This isn’t defeat. It’s a

reality.”

Leon Panetta, who

served as Defense secretary

under President Obama, de-

scribed the Trump adminis-

tration’s talks with the Tali-

ban as “the most screwed-

up negotiations I’ve seen

take place” and said he

doubted they could produce

a durable outcome to the

conflict.

“If this is just a cover to

get the hell out of Af-

ghanistan, I guess that’s one

path,” he said. “But if this is a

serious effort to produce

some stability in Af-

ghanistan, so you’re not go-

ing to have another terror-

ism base created, I think

they’re a long way from that

result.”

Trump initially wanted

to withdraw all U.S. troops,

and he once complained

that the United States has

“wasted an enormous

amount of blood and treas-

ure” in Afghanistan. In all,

about 2,300 U.S. troops have

been killed in the war, and an

additional 20,000 wounded.

About 1,100 NATO troops

also have been killed.

But after taking office,

Trump faced a quandary

similar to Obama, who

balked at a full withdrawal

over fears that Afghanistan

could spiral into chaos.

Like Obama, Trump in-

stead wound up sending in

more forces in his first year,

deploying 3,000 extra U.S.

troops to bolster Afghan se-

curity forces who have strug-

gled to secure the country.

“I hoped that could turn

the tide of battle,” said

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior

fellow at the Brookings In-

stitution, a nonpartisan

think tank in Washington.

“From what I can tell, it

really hasn’t.”

Although Afghan troops

have managed to fend off

Taliban advances or retake

many towns from Taliban

control, U.S. officials say the

war is at best a precarious

stalemate.

The Taliban controls 66

of the country’s 397 districts,

most of them in rural, lightly

populated areas in the east

and south, while the Kabul

government controls 138, ac-

cording to an analysis for the

Foundation for Defense of

Democracies, a Washington

think tank that tracks the

conflict.

That leaves 193 districts

— nearly half the total —

that the foundation de-

scribes as “contested.”

The primary role for U.S.

forces has been advising and

training Afghan troops. But

under Gen. Austin “Scott”

Miller, the commander of

U.S.-led coalition forces in

Afghanistan for the last year,

they also have increased

airstrikes and deployed spe-

cial operations units to tar-

get Taliban leaders as well as

Al Qaeda and Islamic State

forces.

The U.S. and its allies

conducted 1,302 airstrikes in

the first seven months of

2019, more than any full year

since 2013. The goal has been

to raise pressure on the Tali-

ban to reach a deal, accord-

ing to a Pentagon official fa-

miliar with the strategy who

spoke on condition of ano-

nymity.

“The conflict continues

on,” Secretary of Defense

Mark Esper, who briefed al-

lies in Europe last week, told

reporters traveling with

him. “The [Taliban] are con-

ducting attacks. The

Afghans are conducting at-

tacks. We’re supporting

Afghan attacks. That’s why

we think the best way for-

ward — if we can get the right

deal — is a political agree-

ment that leads to a viable

outcome.”

U.S. officials say the Tali-

ban isn’t strong enough to

immediately threaten

Kabul, but Afghan forces

have suffered enormous cas-

ualties as the U.S. reduced

combat operations in recent

years, raising fears about

how long they could survive

without continued U.S.

backing. More than 45,

Afghan security personnel

were reported killed be-

tween 2014 and 2018.

Trump has been clear

about what he wants.

“It’s been a long time. We

have great warriors there,

we have great soldiers, but

Trump cancels U.S. sit-down with Taliban

[Trump, from A1]

[SeeTrump,A7]

AFGHAN SECURITYforces clean up the day after Monday’s deadly explosion in Kabul. On Thursday, a mas-

sive car bomb during morning rush hour in the capital killed 12 people, including a U.S. Army paratrooper.

AFP/Getty Images