14 Leaders The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019
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or monthsAmerica and the Taliban had been haggling over
an agreement to end their 18-year war in Afghanistan. A deal
was in sight. But then President Donald Trump learned that a Ta-
liban bomber in Kabul had killed an American soldier, as well as
11 other people (see Asia section). “I immediately...called off
peace negotiations,” he fumed on Twitter.
The decision came as a relief to many, who had feared that Mr
Trump was ready to sign any deal with the Taliban, no matter
how humiliating for America or catastrophic for Afghanistan,
just to keep a campaign promise to stop America’s “endless wars”
and bring the troops home. As he called off the talks, the presi-
dent revealed that he had been on the verge of hosting Taliban
negotiators at Camp David, his rural retreat, in the hope of seal-
ing a deal there. Many Americans would have
been shocked by the spectacle of their president
welcoming the group that once sheltered Osama
bin Laden, just days before the anniversary of
the attacks of September 11th 2001. Instead, after
Mr Trump put his foot down, the American com-
mander in Afghanistan said he was increasing
the tempo of attacks on the Taliban. Negotia-
tions were “dead”, Mr Trump reiterated.
The deal America was on the verge of striking looked lop-
sided. It was one of the sources of disagreement between Mr
Trump and John Bolton, his national security adviser, who left
his job this week, removing the administration’s chief hawk (see
United States section). It involved America withdrawing 5,
troops without the Taliban even agreeing to a ceasefire. That is
not quite as abject as it sounds. America would still have had
enough manpower to carry on training the Afghan army and giv-
ing it air support. In the meantime, the Taliban in effect agreed to
negotiate directly with the Afghan government, although this
was dressed up as part of a national dialogue. That is something
the Taliban had until now tenaciously resisted.
The problem is that the Taliban have no incentive to make bigconcessions, such as accepting a ceasefire or moderating their
demand for a theocracy, if they believe that time is on their side.
Some suspect that Mr Trump just wants to declare victory before
the next election and leave Afghanistan to its fate come what
may. To forge a durable peace, Mr Trump must convince them
they are wrong and that he will stay if needs be. It will not be easy.
The war cannot be won by arms alone. Even when America
had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, seven times more than to-
day, it could not stamp out the Taliban. With relatively few
troops, America suffers just a dozen or so deaths a year, and still
stops the Taliban from overrunning the country. Yet thousands
of Afghans perish, and life is made miserable for the remainder.
An abrupt American pull-out would make matters worse,
dooming Afghanistan to an even bloodier civil
war and possibly to an eventual Taliban victory.
That would destabilise the region, create anoth-
er potential haven for terrorists and leave Af-
ghans at the mercy of a group that murders girls
for going to school. It is hard to imagine a worse
outcome from 18 years of war.
If military victory is unattainable and sur-
render unpalatable, that leaves only one option:
more negotiation. The Taliban say they are still open to dialogue.
Fine, let them talk with the elected government of Afghanistan.
America should use all its muscle to bring both sides to the table.
And it should make clear that it will support the regime in Kabul
until it is no longer in danger of being overthrown by jihadists.
Everyone will have to make galling compromises. The Taliban
will once again have to be allowed a prominent role in govern-
ment, because that is the way to give them a stake in the peace.
Such a deal is a long way off. It will not be settled in time for
anyone to brag about it on the campaign trail in 2020. So be it. Mr
Trump was right not to rush into a bad deal. Afghanistan’s future
and America’s credibility will depend on him, or a future presi-
dent, having the patience and resolve to strike a better one. 7Talking chop
The United States will have to resume negotiations with the Taliban eventuallyThe war in AfghanistanA
merica hasunleashed a barrage of actions against Huawei,
a Chinese telecoms giant which it believes spies for the Chi-
nese government and threatens Western interests because of its
dominant role in 5gtechnologies. Since May, American firms
have mostly been banned from supplying Huawei. The Justice
Department wants Canada to extradite a top executive who is ac-
cused of sanctions-busting. Uncle Sam’s diplomats have urged
other countries to stop using Huawei gear. America’s aim has
been to cripple a business that it views as a menace.
As we report this week from Shenzhen, where Huawei is
based, the plan has not worked (see Business section). True, Hua-wei is suffering. Western banks are wary of it. Silicon Valley sup-
pliers and the owners of datasets have shied away. And on Sep-
tember 19th Huawei, which as well as building networks is the
world’s second-biggest smartphone-maker, faces the humilia-
tion of launching a new handset that lacks popular American
apps such as Google Maps and WhatsApp.
Yet the Chinese firm is hardly on its knees. Not many 5gcon-
tracts have been cancelled. It is doing well at home and in coun-
tries that are not close American allies. The growth in its rev-
enues is stabilising, following a drop after May, and it expects to
stay profitable. It has $36bn of spare cash. The firm says it has al-A way forward?
Huawei has made a peace offering. Don’t dismiss it entirelyThe tech cold war