30 Britain The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019
21N
igel faragecame bearing gifts. The
Brexit Party, jogging along at about 14%
in the polls, would step aside for the Con-
servatives in seats across the country, pro-
vided the Tories backed a no-deal exit from
the European Union, he proposed. The
price? The Conservatives would have to
give Mr Farage’s party a free run at 80-90
seats in the Midlands and the north, where
the Leave vote was strong but residual an-
tipathy to the Tories is stronger. “Does Bo-
ris have the courage?” read the kicker of a
wraparound advert by the Brexit Party on
the front page of the Daily Expresson Sep-
tember 11th.
Downing Street quickly slapped down
the idea. The Brexit Party leader and his ilk
“should never be allowed anywhere near
government”, declared one senior Tory
source. Pacts in British politics tend to
come to naught. Yet rumblings about a deal
will continue until an election is called.
The ukIndependence Party, Mr Farage’s old
outfit, came second in 120 constituencies
in 2015, with 12.6% of the vote. If current
polls bear out, the Brexit Party’s perfor-
mance could determine the winner of the
next election.
The rarity of pacts in British politics is
in some ways surprising. After all, they can
work. In a by-election in Brecon and Rad-
norshire in August, a Liberal Democrat beat
the Conservative candidate by 1,400 votes,
after the Green Party and Plaid Cymru,
which had won 3,000 votes between them
in 2015, sat it out. The Brexit Party would
have comfortably won a by-election in Pe-terborough in June if the Conservative
Party had stood aside. Instead, Labour
squeaked home by 683 votes.
Political tie-ups do not come easily.
mps, aides and activists spend all day plot-
ting against other parties. Asking them to
work together for a few months before an
election is not natural. Campaigners fear
that sitting out one election will leave them
playing catch-up in the next one. Mr Farage
is heartily disliked by Dominic Cummings,
chief adviser to the prime minister, who
sees the Brexit Party leader as political
kryptonite for middle-class voters.
Pacts also come with big risks. First-
past-the-post generously rewards the two
largest parties, providing a big incentive
for Labour and the Conservatives to stamp
out smaller challengers, lest they end up
usurping them. Nor is teaming up with an-
other party risk-free for the smaller entity.
After the Lib Dems entered a coalition with
the Conservatives in 2010, voters rewarded
them by kicking out all but eight of their 56
mps at the next election.
Party pride and political practicality
leave tactical voting as the most viable way
for parties to work together against a com-
mon enemy. In 1997, tactical voting by La-
bour and Lib Dem supporters cost the Con-
servatives about 30 seats, points out Peter
Kellner, a pollster. This year, with polls pre-
dicting a close-run election, a handful of
seats may determine the fate of the coun-
try. Well-organised campaigns that back
staying in the euare preparing a propagan-
da onslaught aimed at making RemainEven if formal pacts fail to take off, tactical voting will influence the next electionPolitical pactsDivided they fall
has long been a destination of choice for
foreign students, thanks to tuition in Eng-
lish and the cachet of its institutions.
Though it remains the second-most fa-
voured destination (see chart), it has lost
market share in recent years. Indians, in
particular, have switched to countries with
more generous options for post-study
work. Foreign students already account for
a fifth of places in Britain. The relaxed rules
should tempt many more of them.
Vice-chancellors are especially keen on
students from outside the European Un-
ion, who pay the full cost of their degree,
rather than the £9,250 ($11,400) per year
that universities can charge Britons and
other Europeans. The number of Asian stu-
dents looking to study abroad is booming,
thanks to growing wealth and connected-
ness. The British government hopes to in-
crease the number of foreign students
from about 450,000 to 600,000 by 2030.
Employers are cock-a-hoop, too. The
current rules leave them a brief window to
find good graduates to sponsor or risk them
going home. The new scheme gives firms
and graduates the time to “try before you
buy”, says Ian Robinson of Fragomen, a law
firm. The overall impact on the labour mar-
ket will be slight, since only 40,000 or so
students a year took up the two-year period
before it was abolished. But it will give
firms a bigger pool of workers with desir-
able skills. Far more international students
plump for business or engineering degrees
than courses in history or philosophy.
And the policy is the most significant
attempt yet by a Leaver to follow through
on the commitment to create an outward-
looking “global Britain” after Brexit. Ex-
porting education boosts Britain’s soft
power around the world. More heads of
state and government (58) were educated
in Britain than in any other country, ac-
cording to a study in 2017 by the Higher
Education Policy Institute, a think-tank. As
Brexit roils the country, at least there are
some lessons Britain can still teach. 7Degrees in geographySource: OECDNumber of international students
2017, m% increase
2010-1742.8
9.6
40.5
79.813.042.9119.7
27.3
119.2
39.60 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
United States
Britain
Australia
Russia
Germany
France
Canada
Japan
China
Italy