The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019 391F
or three years President Donald
Trump’s foreign policy has seesawed
between threats to bomb enemies and
moon-shot diplomacy. The president has
flirted with nuclear war with North Korea,
only to become the first sitting president to
step onto its soil. He has strangled Iran’s
economy and ordered bombers into the air,
then offered talks. A troop surge in Afghan-
istan gave way to a proposed summit with
the Taliban.
John Bolton’s appointment as national
security adviser in April 2018 seemed to tilt
the scales towards the hawks. His acrimo-
nious departure on September 10th—fired
by presidential tweet—suggests that Mr
Trump is now in a dealmaking mood,
ahead of next year’s election. That is likely
to have consequences for America’s rela-
tions with enemies and allies alike.
In recent months Mr Bolton has clashed
with the president on many fronts. Mr
Trump grew impatient with his adviser’s
dogged opposition to making concessions
during negotiations with Kim Jong Un of
North Korea and his fixation with sanc-
tions on Iran. Nicolás Maduro’s hold onpower in Venezuela also proved more dur-
able than Mr Bolton advertised.
Mr Trump sees economic and military
muscle-flexing as part of a bargaining pro-
cess in which foes (he hopes) morph quick-
ly into interlocutors; Mr Bolton would set-
tle for nothing less than their surrender. He
forcefully opposed Mr Trump’s proposal to
ease sanctions against Iran in order to se-
cure a meeting with Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s
president. But the last straw appears to
have been Mr Bolton’s dissent over Mr
Trump’s invitation (later rescinded) to the
Taliban to sign a peace agreement at Camp
David, the presidential retreat.Hunting for deals
Mr Bolton’s influence should not be over-
stated. He was more irritant than obstacle.
He could not prevent Mr Trump from pull-
ing troops out of Syria, pursuing talks with
the Taliban and charming Mr Kim. Even so,
his departure is a statement of presidential
intent. Though Mr Trump considers him-
self a master tactician and accomplished
dealmaker, he has yet to secure a big dip-
lomatic deal after three years in office.Meanwhile, Mr Maduro remains firmly in
power, while arms control with Russia is
collapsing. North Korea continues to churn
out bomb fuel and Iran’s nuclear pro-
gramme is expanding once more. Violence
against civilians in Afghanistan stands at
near-record levels.
Mr Trump, eager for a first-term legacy,
is therefore likely to renew his pursuit of
grand bargains, probably punctuated by set
pieces like the trio of encounters with Mr
Kim. Iran looks to be first on the list. Mike
Pompeo, the secretary of state—a hardliner
himself, who nevertheless feuded with Mr
Bolton—hinted on September 10th that Mr
Trump could meet Mr Rouhani with “no
preconditions” during the unGeneral As-
sembly, which begins on September 17th.
That would be the first meeting between
American and Iranian leaders since Iran’s
Islamic revolution in 1979, and a route to
easing six months of growing tensions.
Although Mr Trump said that talks with
the Taliban were “dead”, they may well be
resuscitated. It is hard to know why they
collapsed. Perhaps because the president
saw a deficiency in the agreement, or be-
cause of insurgent violence—which has
killed thousands of Afghans since talks be-
gan—perhaps because an American soldier
was killed at an inopportune moment or
because the poor optics of hosting the Tali-
ban at Camp David the weekend before Sep-
tember 11th.
The biggest prize of all would be Russia,
whose covert intervention in America’s
2016 election was intended to help nudgeForeign policyNew job opening
WASHINGTON, DC
John Bolton’s successor as national security adviser is unlikely to change
America’s foreign policyUnited States
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