6 | New Scientist | 14 September 2019
HOPES of a breakthrough in
international climate change
ambitions are being downplayed
for a meeting in New York in two
weeks’ time. The United Nations
Climate Action summit looks
likely to disappoint the thousands
of campaigners set to take to the
city’s streets just days before.
The summit is arguably the
most important moment for
action on climate change since the
Paris climate deal was agreed in- A key part of that agreement
was that by 2020, countries would
“ratchet up” the carbon-curbing
plans they put forward in Paris,
which were insufficient to meet
the agreement’s goals.
UN secretary general António
Guterres has called on leaders to
form concrete, realistic plans,
rather than “beautiful speeches”.
He has set the bar high for heads
of state, who are expected to
include Narendra Modi of India,
Emmanuel Macron of France,
Angela Merkel of Germany and
the UK’s Boris Johnson. US
president Donald Trump is
expected to snub the event.
Guterres has made four specific
requests: carbon neutrality plans
for 2050, ways to tackle fossil fuel
subsidies, taxing carbon and no
new coal power beyond 2020.
Three days before the meeting,
Swedish campaigner Greta
Thunberg will be among the
thousands expected on New York’s
streets for a “global climate strike”,
with potentially millions more
joining worldwide. Two days after
the summit, scientists will issuea report on how global warming
will affect the planet’s oceans
and frozen regions.
Although these events will
shine a spotlight on the summit,
expectations are relatively low.
“I don’t think we should expect
some huge breakthrough,” says
Nicholas Stern at the London
School of Economics.
“It is not quite where
everybody hoped it would be at
this point,” says a source close to
the UK government, who doesn’t
want to be named.
This is partly due to the EU
and the US. The leadership role
that the latter played ahead of
the Paris summit was crucial to
securing commitments fromChina, but such guidance has
been absent under Donald Trump,
who has started the process of
withdrawing the US from the
Paris agreement in 2020. The EU’s
failure this summer to adopt a
goal of net zero emissions for
2050 also hurt momentum.
Despite the gloom, anywhere
between 60 and 100 countries
are expected to arrive with a
plan on 23 September. No major
economies are expected to
announce stronger nationally
determined contributions (NDCs),
UN jargon for carbon-curbing
plans, but some smaller ones
may. Many will come with a
“commitment to commit” later.
“For me, it’s a really important
staging post, an inflection point
where, at leader level, we get a
sense of how transformational
this can be for economies,”
says Nick Bridge, the UK’s top
climate envoy. He believes
Guterres is right to make bold
demands. “A lot of this is getting
back to the evidence and the
science. Are we meeting what
we need to do? No,” he says.
The ambition of existing NDCs
needs to increase five times for the
world to limit temperature rises to
1.5°C and three times for 2°C, theParis deal’s tougher and minimum
targets, says Niklas Hagelberg of
the UN Environment Programme.
Most countries are expected to
submit a new NDC in the first half
of next year, ahead of a key UN
climate conference in November
2020 that is likely to be co-hosted
by the UK and Italy.
If current pledges are delivered,
the world will warm by around 3°C
by 2100, says Niklas Höhne of
Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
Those pledges, including China’semissions peaking by around
2030, will see emissions continue
to rise for the next 10 years. For a
2°C limit, they must fall by 30 per
cent over that period and by
50 per cent for a 1.5°C limit.
“We are not a little bit off, we are
really far off,” says Höhne. At best,
the new NDCs in aggregate might
shave something in the order of
0.1°C off future warming, rather
than a dramatic change like 0.5°C,
he says. However, he sees reasons
for optimism beyond national
governments. An analysis by CAT
found that if cities, regions and
business deliver all the emissions
cuts they have promised by 2030,
the world could still stay under the
2°C limit, albeit not under 1.5°C.
“That is encouraging,” he says.
Stern doesn’t think this month’s
summit will be when promises
materialise that close the gap
between 3°C and “well below”
2°C, as Paris demands. “The most
important thing is the shared
recognition of the magnitude
of the task ahead,” he says. ❚Critically insufficient (4°C+)Compatible (<2°C)Highly insufficient (<4°C)Compatible (1.5°C)
No dataInsufficient (<3°C)The current carbon-cutting
plans of most countries are
insufficient to meet the UN’s
Paris agreement to limit
global warming to 2°C, with
many predicted to cause
higher temperature risesSOURCE: CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER, JUNE 2019“Greta Thunberg will be
among the thousands
expected in New York for
a global climate strike”News
UN climate summitMICHAEL GOTTSCHALK/GETTYCrunch time for climate change
Heads of state will meet to discuss how to ramp up efforts to tackle global
warming, but few are expecting much progress, reports Adam VaughanBetween
60 and 100
countries
will attend
the UN
summit in
New York