The New York Times - 12.09.2019

A24 0 N THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALTHURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2019

ROCKINGHAM, N.C. — The
red is getting redder and the blue
is getting bluer.
The special congressional elec-
tion in North Carolina may have
involved just about 190,000 voters,
but it showed that the class, racial
and regional divides among vot-
ers have only hardened since that
demographic chasm helped drive
President Trump’s election in 2016
and the Democratic rebound in
the House in 2018.
Dan Bishop, a Republican state
lawmaker, eked out a two-point
victory in a historically conserva-
tive seat because he improved on
his party’s performance with
working-class whites in more
lightly populated parts of the dis-
trict. And even though Democrats
nominated a Marine veteran, Dan
McCready, who highlighted his
baptism while serving in Iraq, his
gains in Charlotte, the state’s big-
gest city, were not enough to offset
the drop-off he suffered across
several hundred miles of sprawl-
ing farms and small towns.
The bracing takeaway for Re-
publicans is that their tightening
embrace of Mr. Trump and his of-
ten demagogic politics is further
alienating the upper middle-class
voters — many in cities and their
suburbs— who once were central
to their base. At the same time, the
Democrats are continuing to
struggle with the working-class
whites who once represented a
pillar of their own coalition.
The results here in a district
stretching from Charlotte to Fay-
etteville presage a brutal, national
campaign that seems destined to
become the political equivalent of
trench warfare, with the two par-
ties rallying their supporters but
clashing over a vanishingly small
slice of contested electoral ter-
rain.
Such a contest could prove diffi-
cult for Mr. Trump because his
core support may well be insuffi-
cient to win him a second term
without improving his standing
with the suburbanites and women
who reluctantly backed him in
2016.
Even as the president and his
top aides crowed over their role in
securing Mr. Bishop a two-point
win in a seat Mr. Trump carried by
12 points, their next-day glow was

jarred by a new Washington Post-

ABC poll that delivered grim tid-

ings. Mr. Trump would lose to a

handful of the Democratic candi-

dates, the survey indicated, and a

trial heat between the president

and Joseph R. Biden Jr. showed

Mr. Biden thrashing Mr. Trump

55-40 among registered voters.

But Republicans note that the

election will not be held this week

and they believe Mr. Trump can

pull out another Electoral College

victory if the Democrats veer out

of the political mainstream next

year and send just enough of those

political moderates scrambling

back to the G.O.P.

“Their run to the left is the great

opportunity for us to get back the

majority and for the president to

get re-elected,” said Representa-

tive Patrick McHenry of North

Carolina, pointing to how many

more House seats are now held by

Democrats in districts won by Mr.

Trump than by Republicans in

seats Hillary Clinton carried.

More striking than Mr. McHen-

ry’s rosy assessment is what he

and other political veterans from

both parties are now willing to ac-

knowledge: that new lines of de-

marcation are making Democrats

out of college-educated voters

tooling around Charlotte in BMWs

and Republicans out of blue-collar

workers further out on Tobacco

Road. And those lines are now

fixed.

“We are living in, to take an old

John Edwards term, Two Ameri-

cas,” Mr. McHenry said, alluding

to the former North Carolina sen-

ator. He added that “the view of

the president is cemented in vot-

ers’ minds” and conceded that Mr.

Trump can only improve his

standing in the suburbs “along the

margins.”

Former Representative Brad

Miller, a longtime North Carolina

Democrat with ancestral roots in

this district, was just as blunt.

“It does grieve me greatly that

the areas where my family was

from have gone so Republican,”

said Mr. Miller, noting that many

of the voters who cast Republican

ballots Tuesday “probably had

grandparents with pictures of

F.D.R. up in their living room.”

But Mr. Miller said the implica-

tions from Tuesday’s special elec-

tion and last year’s midterms

were undeniable if demoralizing

in some ways.

“Democrats have a clear advan-

tage in 2020, but there is no way to

break into a lot of the folks who are

for Trump. They’re just not going

to vote for a Democrat, doesn’t

matter who it is,” he said. “So

Democrats can still win and prob-

ably will win but we’re going to be

a very divided nation.”

Those divisions were easy to

detect Wednesday in Rocking-

ham, a county seat community

well east of Charlotte best known

for its famed NASCAR track. Mr.

McCready won the surrounding

county by 2.5 percent last year but

on Tuesday Mr. Bishop carried it

by 5 percent.

Standing behind the counter at

Iconic Wellness CBD, and sur-

rounded by tasteful posters extol-

ling the benefits of legal cannabis

products, Pam Mizzell said she

voted for Mr. Bishop in part be-

cause he had the strong backing of

Mr. Trump.

Ms. Mizzell, who is white, said

she wanted more Republicans in

Washington supporting the presi-

dent’s agenda. She accused for-

mer President Barack Obama of

pitting “one race against the other

race” (she did not cite any exam-

ples) and said she hoped that the

Trump administration would help

bring about an era of racial heal-

ing.

Diane McDonald, a school cafe-

teria worker who is African-

American, offered a markedly dif-

ferent viewpoint, saying she was

worried that Mr. Trump is promot-

ing racism. “And they’re letting

him get away with it,” Ms. McDon-

ald said of Washington Republi-

cans. “I thought McCready would

make a difference.”

In Charlotte, it was not difficult

to find white, Republican-leaning

voters who also backed Mr. Mc-

Cready.

Chris Daleus, a salesman, said

he backed the Democrat Tuesday

even though he supported Mr.

Trump three years ago. “He

seems to have embarrassed us in

a lot of ways,” Mr. Daleus said of

the president.

National Democrats took heart

in such sentiments, believing

their narrow defeat in a district

they have not held since the 1960s

foreshadows how a Trumpified

Republican Party will run into the

same suburban wall in 2020 as

they did last year.

“There are 34 seats held by Re-

publicans that are better pick-up

opportunities for Democrats than

this seat,” said Lucinda Guinn, a

Democratic strategist. “Demo-

crats can grow their majority.”

The more pressing matter for

Democrats, though, may be

whether they can improve their

performance with working-class

whites to reclaim the Senate and

presidency in 2020, a question

that will turn in part on whether

they can defeat the North Carolina

Republican Senator Thom Tillis

and reclaim this state from Mr.

Trump, who won here by 3.6

points in 2016.

“Back in the 80s and 90s, North

Carolina Democrats who bucked

party affiliation were called Jes-

secrats,” said Doug Heye, a North

Carolina-reared Republican con-

sultant, referring to the late Sena-

tor Jesse Helms. “Now we may

have to called them Trumpocrats.

And if Democrats want North Car-

olina to truly be in play, they have

to figure out how to appeal to

these voters.”

Mr. Bishop’s campaign cor-

rectly determined that these

mostly rural Democrats would

hold the key to their success, even

though their candidate’s state

senate district includes parts of

Charlotte. Jim Blaine, one of Mr.

Bishop’s top aides, said that 75 to

80 percent of their paid advertis-

ing was directed toward the east-

ern, and more sparsely-popu-

lated, part of the district.

He said their job was made easi-

er in part because of the national

Democratic Party’s drift left, but

also because Mr. McCready did

not make any major break from

party orthodoxy that would have

allowed him to present himself as

a different sort of Democrat.

Mr. Trump’s high command, not

surprisingly, had their own theory

of why Republicans won here: Mr.

Trump.

Brad Parscale, the president’s

campaign manager, told reporters

on a conference call Wednesday

that the president’s election eve

rally in Fayetteville was pivotal to

Mr. Bishop’s success in energizing

Election Day voters.

“There’s no question that he is

the congressman-elect this morn-

ing because of the personal efforts

of President Trump,” Mr. Parscale

said of Mr. Bishop.

But in between the credit-claim-

ing, one of Mr. Trump’s top politi-

cal advisers, Bill Stepien, offered a

bit of bravado that doubled as the

bet on which the president is ap-

parently staking his re-election.

“I think too often people in this

city, in the Beltway, rely on old

math and old math equations for

how this president changed the

way politics is done,” said Mr.

Stepien, adding: “There’s a new

math spurred by a new candidate

at the top of the ticket and I think

we need to throw out the old way”

of how “elections are won and

lost.”

Richard Fausset reported from
Charlotte, and Jonathan Martin
and Maggie Haberman from
Washington.

Republican’s Victory Reveals a Bitter Divide Among Voters Is Only Growing Wider

This article is by Richard Fausset,
Jonathan Martinand Maggie Ha-
berman.

President Trump and Dan Bishop on Monday, a day before Mr. Bishop won a special election against the Democrat Dan McCready, above right with his wife, Laura.

KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS LOGAN R. CYRUS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Demographic changes

that strike at the roots

of both parties.

WASHINGTON — One Demo-
cratic candidate would post asy-
lum officers at the border to de-
cide immigration cases on the
spot. Others would create an en-
tirely new court system outside
the Justice Department. Some
have suggested reinstating a pro-
gram that would allow Central
American minors to apply for ref-
ugee status in their home coun-
tries.
The Democrats running for the
White House do not lack ideas on
the hot-button issues of immigra-
tion and border control. But as
they prepare to take the stage on
Thursday for their debate in
Houston, most would rather talk
about the hard-line policies of the
man they seek to replace, Presi-
dent Trump.
Revealing specific details on
immigration could undoubtedly
backfire because “it is in many
ways a third rail in our politics”
now, said Doris Meisner, a former
commissioner of the Immigration
and Naturalization Service, the
agency that was responsible for
immigration enforcement in the
United States before ceasing oper-
ations in 2003.
But, she added: “It’s not enough
to be against things. You have to
figure out what you’re for, and you
have to make a case for why you
think things should be different.”
An examination of the candi-
dates’ immigration policies and
stances shows they have spent
most of their efforts on disman-
tling the Trump administration’s
policies, without really laying out
how, if elected, they would handle
illegal border crossings, eliminate
a growing immigration court
backlog, direct immigration en-
forcement or address the root
causes of migration from Central
America.
Four of the leading candidates
who will debate on Thursday —
former Representative Beto
O’Rourke, Senator Elizabeth War-
ren, former Housing Secretary
Julián Castro and Senator Cory
Booker — have released plans
touching on each of those ques-
tions. The former technology ex-
ecutive Andrew Yang and Senator
Kamala Harris have issued more
limited plans, with Ms. Harris’s fo-
cusing on providing protections
for young immigrants brought
here illegally as children, known

as Dreamers. Campaign advisers

for former Vice President Joseph

R. Biden Jr. and Senator Bernie

Sanders said the candidates were

set to issue plans in the coming

weeks.

But the candidates are largely

refraining from going in depth on

the most salient issues of immi-

gration policy, including whom

they would deport and whom they

would let into the country.

The “open borders candidate”

label — already applied to the field

by Mr. Trump — could alienate

voters otherwise open to the Dem-

ocratic pitch.

“The Democrats’ strategy is to

make white women in the suburbs

cry about Trump’s treatment of

migrants and then pivot to health

care,” said Chris Newman, the le-

gal director for the National Day

Laborer Organizing Network, a

pro-immigration group. “That ap-

proach might have worked in

2018, but I don’t think it will work

in 2020, in part because Trump

won’t let them pivot to health

care.”

The immigration issue already

had a noticeable impact on the

race during the first round of

Democratic debates in June. On

the first night, Mr. Castro point-

edly asked the other candidates to

join him in supporting the repeal

of a statute that makes crossing

the border without permission a

criminal offense. The next night,

with another 10 presidential can-

didates onstage, moderators

asked for a show of hands of those

who agreed with Mr. Castro and

supported decriminalizing the of-

fense. Eight hands rose. Some

candidates added that they also

supported providing undocu-

mented immigrants with health

care.

The next day, Mr. Trump took

advantage. “That’s the end of that

race!” he tweeted.

Mr. Biden, the early front-run-

ner for the Democratic nomina-

tion, has spent most of his time fo-

cusing on Mr. Trump’s policies

through campaign videos, state-

ments and essays. In an opinion

piece in The Miami Herald, Mr. Bi-

den targeted Mr. Trump’s threat to

deport millions of immigrants and

restrict temporary protections for

migrants fleeing disasters. He

also blamed Mr. Trump for dam-

aging the United States’ relation-

ship with Mexico.

Mr. Biden has made clear that

he would invest in Central Ameri-

can countries and technology at

the border and support Dreamers.

But he has released few details on

whom he would prioritize deport-

ing and how he would eliminate

the immigration court backlog.

The Biden campaign said in a

statement that the candidate is fo-

cused on addressing the root

causes of migration and would, as

president, give legal status to

Dreamers and streamline the asy-

lum process. The campaign had

harsh words for Mr. Trump’s “re-

pugnant” treatment of migrant

children and immigration policies,

which it described as “contrary to

our values as a nation.”

The Democratic candidates

have all said they would end the

Trump administration’s practices

of limiting who can apply for asy-

lum at ports of entry and return-

ing migrants to Mexico while their

cases are processed. They would

all also increase the annual cap on

refugees allowed into the United

States, which the president has

lowered significantly, and end

both the administration’s travel

ban and its policy of separating

families at the border.

“The Democrats will run on a

lesser-of-two-evils strategy as

they have been for many years,”

Mr. Newman predicted. “There’s

never been an easier time for

them to do that.”

In response to a list of ques-

tions, a campaign adviser for Mr.

Sanders specified that his admin-

istration would reinterpret the

Trafficking Victims and Protec-

tion Act, the immigration law that

previous administrations have

said categorizes children as “un-

accompanied” if they arrive at the

border with a relative that is not

their parent. Mr. Sanders said he

did not think children who arrived

with uncles, aunts or grandpar-

ents should be separated from

their companions.

Mr. Castro, the first candidate to

issue an immigration plan, has

said he would transfer enforce-

ment responsibilities within Im-

migration and Customs Enforce-

ment to other agencies, including

the Justice Department. Mr. Cas-

tro also said he would reprioritize

Customs and Border Protection to

focus on drug and human traffick-

ing as opposed to enforcement of

immigration laws in the interior of

the country through, for instance,

traffic stops.

Mr. Castro, Mr. O’Rourke, Ms.

Warren and Mr. Booker have said

in their plans that they would end

agreements allowing local police

departments to refer undocu-

mented immigrants to ICE.

It remained unclear whom the

candidates would deport, howev-

er.

Some of the candidates said

they would redirect agents to fo-

cus on undocumented immigrants

with criminal records, without

specifying what kind of criminal

histories would warrant detain-

ment or deportation.

An adviser for Mr. O’Rourke’s

campaign said he would focus on

detaining smugglers. “Yes, fam-

ilies will be released into our com-

munities,” the campaign said in

response to questions.

The former congressman and

other candidates also said they

would support releasing families

into the public, instead of holding

them in detention facilities at the

border. Families would be as-

signed a case manager and re-

leased as their claims were pro-

cessed.

Mr. Yang said he would create a

new program that would provide

protections for undocumented im-

migrants “who have been here a

substantial amount of time” to

work and live in the country for 18

years while pursuing citizenship

as long as they paid their taxes

and avoided felony crimes. Immi-

grants who did not enroll in the

program would be deported, ac-

cording to his plan.

Mr. Castro said he would create

a “Marshall Plan” for the develop-

ment of Central American coun-

tries. Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign

specified that he would invest $5

billion in Central American coun-

tries through public and private

partnerships. Ms. Warren said

she would invest $1.5 billion annu-

ally in the countries. Mr. Booker

said he would appoint a special en-

voy to address corruption and vio-

lence in the region.

At the border, Mr. O’Rourke said

he would empower asylum offi-

cers to adjudicate cases them-

selves and would deploy 2,000

lawyers to the border.

But the public is unlikely to hear

about those details during the de-

bate Thursday, according to The-

resa Cardinal Brown, a former De-

partment of Homeland Security

official under Presidents Barack

Obama and George W. Bush.

“There is political wisdom in

Washington that says the less de-

tail you put out there the better,”

Ms. Cardinal Brown said. “That

may be true for politics, but it

doesn’t help people get a good un-

derstanding of what you’re for.”

On the border in Texas. The Democratic candidates have largely spoken of immigration in terms of opposing Trump policies.

JOHN MOORE/GETTY IMAGES

On Immigration Policy,

Democrats Are Hazy

On the Way Forward

By ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS