The Washington Post - 07.09.2019

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7 , 2019. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

THE MARKETS

6 M onitor your investments at washingtonpost.com/markets Data and graphics by

15-Yr Fixe d mtge

3 3..0 04 4%%

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Lannett Co Inc13.16 48.

Owens &Minor Inc7.0743.

Endo International 3.49 41.

Comty Health Systems2.9838.

Michaels Cos Inc/The7.7635.

EmergentBioSol utions 56.08 32.

Briggs & Stratton5.4931.

Valar is plc5.9826.

Lumber Liquidators11.80 24.

Amer Axle & Mfg7.6820.

Adient PLC23.92 19.

Delphi Technologie s15.65 19.

Noble Corp plc1.7519.

Conn's Inc24.15 18.

G-III Apparel Group24.18 17.

Zumiez Inc30.71 17.

RRDonnelley &SonsCo 2.74 17.

RenewableEnergyGroup 14.08 17.

Green Plains Inc9.2717.

Tapestry Inc23.69 16.

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Mallinckrodt PLC1.87-39. 3

Ulta Beauty Inc233.10 -30.

Mere dith Corp 34.40 -21.

Acorda Therapeutics 2.80 -18.

InnovativeIndstrProp 83.30 -18.

Kirk land's Inc1.21-16.

Vera Bradley Inc8.85-15.

Matrix Service Co 18.46 -15.

Coca-Cola Cons 298.51 -13.

AssertioTherapeut ics1.27-13.

Meri tMedicalSystems30.62 -12.

Clearwater Paper14.37 -11.

USSilica Inc9.45-10.

Unit Corp 2.89 -10.

Akorn Inc2.65-9.

Cantel Medical Corp 83.59-9.

Arrowhead Pharma 31.51 -9.

REGE NXBIO Inc31.84 -9.

Hibbett Sports Inc15.49 -9.

Boot Barn Inc32.04 -9.

30-Yr Fixed mtge

3 3..7 72 2%%

AAssiiaaPPaacciiffiicc --3 31 1..22%% ++3 31 1..22%%

S&P/AS X200 INDEX6647.33 0.

CSI 300 INDEX3948.51 3.

HANG SENG INDEX26690.76 3.

NIKKEI 225 21199.57 2.

5Yr CD Nat l

1 1..7 711

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Copper (COPA.L) 3.

Corn (CORN.L)-5.

Cotton (COTN.L) -0.

Crude Oil (CRUD.L) 1.

Gaso line (UGAS.L) 3.

Gold (BULL.L) -0.

Natural Gas (NGAS.L) 9.

Silver (SLVR.L) 1.

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BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX 102935.40 1.

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE IN DEX16535.33 0.

S&P/BMV IPC42707.66 0.

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3M Co 163.94 2.2 -0.

AmerExpCo120.19 -0.5 0.

Appl eInc213.26 2.0 15.

Boeing 363.00 0.1 3.

Caterpillr 122.70 4.2 -0.

Chevron118.26 0.6 -2.

Cisc o Sys48.84 3.3 -11. 4

Coca-Cola55.23 0.3 7.

Dow Inc43.24 2.1 -15. 3

Exx onMobil70.93 3.7 -4.

Gldman Schs 20 7.21 1.9 9.

Home Depot231.13 1.7 17.

IBM140.57 4.2 6.

Inte l Corp 50.92 8.6 12.

J&J128.21 0.0 -6.

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JPMo rgan 112.61 3. 12.

McDonald's220.03 -0.2 8.

Merck &Co 86.57 -0.2 6.

Microsof t139.10 0. 78.

NIKE Inc88.69 3. 97.

Pfizer Inc36.50 3.3-14.

Prcter& Gmbl 122.87 1.414.

Travel ersCos I 152.84 4. 02.

UnitedTech 133.69 3. 21.

UntdHlthGr 229.00 -0.7 -5.

Verz nComm 59.06 1. 92.

Visa Inc 185.74 2.511. 3

Walgreen s 52.56 4. 33.

Walmar t 114.73 0. 69.

Walt Disney 139.55 1. 21.

Bank Prime

5 5..2 25 5%%

Britain £

0 0..8 811

Federal Funds

2 2..2 25 5%%

Mexico$

119 9..5 544

Canada $

1 1..3 322

COMMODITIES

DOWJONES STANDARD&POOR'S

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1 1..5 56 6%%

LIBOR 3-Month

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Home Equity Loan Natl

6 6..3 344

NASDAQCOMPOSITEINDEX

Note: Bank prime isfrom 10 majorbanks. Federal Funds rateis the

market rate, w hichcanvary from the federal target rate. LIBOR is the

London Interbank Offered Rate. Consumer rates are from Bankrate. All

figures as of 4:30 p.m. New Yorktime.

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  Auto Components 6 6..9 9
  Energy Equipment &Svcs 5 5..5 5
  Semiconductors& Semi Eqp55..4 4
  Textiles & Apparel 5 5..0 0
  Electrical Equipment44..9 9
  Health Care Technology --22..4 4
  Diversified Consumer Svcs --00..9 9
  Gas Utilitie s--00..8 8
  Metals& Mining --00..6 6
  Multi-Utilitie s--00..4 4

EU€

0 0..9 911

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Copper2.6 3 2.

Crud eOil56.52 -0.

Gold 1515. 50 -1.

Natura lGas2.50 8.

Orange Juice1.0 2 -5.

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Silver 18. 12 -1.

Sugar11.02 -1.

Soybean8.58-1.

Wheat4.64-1.

Corn 3.56 -4.

Japan ¥

11006 6..9 911

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EEuurrooppee --1 18 8..55%% ++1 18 8..55%%

STXE 600 €Pr 387.14 2.

CAC 40 INDEX5603.99 2.

DAX INDEX12191.73 2.

FTSE 100 INDEX7282.34 1.

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1Yr CD Natl

1 1..4 411

INTERNATIONALSTOCKMARKETS

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BY HEATHER LONG

Hiring cooled in August, the
latest in a long line of data
released this summer that indi-
cates President Trump’s trade
war is starting to bite into an
economy that could be on the
verge of entering a rough patch.
The U. S. economy added
130,000 jobs in August, the La-
bor Department said Friday, be-
low expectations of 160,000 job
gains. The numbers were padded
in part because the government
hired a large number of tempo-
rary workers for the 2020 Cen-
sus.
The hiring slowdown c omes a s
broader economic growth has
softened this year. The manufac-
turing sector is in a recession,
and businesses have curtailed
spending, largely as a result of
head winds from abroad and
Trump’s trade policy whiplash.
This is a “murky” time for the
economy with “significant risks,”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H.
Powell said Friday during re-
marks in Switzerland.
Trump tweeted that the Fed
and the media are to blame for
the uncertainty that is causing
business leaders to slow spend-
ing, but executives point to the
rounds of tariffs imposed by the
White House as the major prob-
lem. Forty-three percent of For-
tune 500 l eaders h ave spoken out
about trade uncertainty since
June 1, according to the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce.
The U.S. economy is driven
primarily by consumer spend-
ing, and so far that remains
strong as workers continue to get
pay raises and don’t see much
reason to worry about losing
their jobs. But the pace of job
creation has slowed this year.
The unemployment rate re-
mained at 3.7 percent in August,
the lowest in nearly a hal-
f-century. Business leaders com-
plain frequently that they can’t
find enough workers to fill open
jobs, and people are being lured
off their couches or out of school
and into the workforce at record
rates. “We’re hiring” signs are
plentiful in many parts of the
country.
But in a sign economic forces
have begun to change, most
companies have scaled back
spending on buildings and
equipment, and there is concern
that they will now cease hiring, a

move that could have harmful

consequences because consumer

spending drives so much of the

U. S. economy. When Americans

are fearful of losing their jobs,

they tend to c ut back o n purchas-

es.

So far this year, job gains have

averaged 1 43,000 a month, a

noticeable downgrade from last

year, when they averaged

192,000 a month, said Lakshman

Achuthan, co-founder o f the E co-

nomic Cycle Research Institute.

“While I’m not concerned

about a downturn lurking just

around the corner today, it re-

mains a very real possibility

further down the line,” Steve

Rick, chief economist at CUNA

Mutual Group, said in an email.

Trump has pinned his reelec-

tion on a strong economy in

2020. White House officials have
      moved aggressively in recent
      days to highlight good economic
      news and say the U.S.-China
      trade talks are going well, even
      though substantive progress has
      not occurred.
      Despite the White House’s ef-

forts to tout good news, many

business executives remain on

edge. Private-sector companies

added only 96,000 jobs in Au-

gust, one of the weakest gains in

the past few years.

The United States is a tale of

two economies. The service sec-

tor remains relatively strong,

driven by consumer spending.

Health care and businesses con-

tinued to add a lot of jobs in

August. But industries such as

mining, manufacturing, retail

and trucking t hat are m ore c lose-

ly tied to selling items overseas

are struggling. Mining employ-

ment fell by 6,000 jobs, and

trucking by 4,500. Manufactur-

ing hiring also has cooled this

year, a trend that continued last

month.

“The epic political failure to

resolve this 18-month long trade

dispute and the threat of yet

another tariff battle erupting

with Europe, India, Vietnam and

others — all act as a massive foot

on the neck of the U. S. economy,”

said Bernard Baumohl, chief

global economist at the Eco-

nomic Outlook Group. “This foot

has already starved t he U.S. man-

ufacturing sector of oxygen,

causing production and new or-

ders to plummet.”

But Powell pointed out Friday

that manufacturing is a relative-

ly small part of the U. S. economy

today. It slipped into a recession

back in 2 015 and early 2016 while

the rest of the economy contin-

ued to grow, a scenario that may

be playing out again.

Powell said he expects the

overall economy to keep growing

at a solid clip, avoiding a reces-

sion.

“We’re not forecasting or ex-

pecting a recession,” Powell said.

“The most likely outlook for our

economy remains a favorable

one with moderate growth, a

strong labor market and moder-

ate inflation.”

Economists largely agree that

the U.S. economy is slowing from

near 3 percent growth last year

to about 2 percent growth this

year. Whether the economy nose-

dives from there depends on

what happens with hiring and

consumer spending.

“The prevailing wisdom is the

consumer will ‘save the day,’ but

jobs growth and overall growth

is decelerating and that looks

like it will continue,” Achuthan

said. “Everything is not stable.”

Consumer confidence has

pulled back slightly but is not a

red flag yet. Still, there are signs

Americans are paying close at-

tention to what is happening in

the e conomy. G oogle searches for

“recession 2019 ” have spiked to

levels not seen since 2008, when

stock markets tanked and the

economy was in the midst of the

Great Recession.

Although Americans appear t o

be concerned, they have yet to

pull back on spending to the

degree that businesses have.

The job market still looks

strong, with more job openings

than unemployed people. Wages

grew at an annual pace of

3.2 percent in August, well above

inflation and a slightly better-

than-expected pace. The number

of hours that U. S. employees are

working also rose, typically a

sign that companies are asking

workers to stay later.

The U. S. economy has been

growing for more than a decade,

and the gains appear to be reach-

ing more people. The African

American unemployment rate

fell to an all-time low of 5.5 per-

cent in August, and the labor

force participation rate edged up

to 63.2 percent, one of the high-

est rates in recent years, as more

people are finding jobs.

Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top

economic adviser, called it a

“very solid” number of job gains

in various TV appearances,

stressing that he is encouraged

by strong wage growth.

But Democrats on Friday as-

sailed parts of the new data,

alleging that uncertainty about

the ongoing trade war had

caused companies to seize up

and postpone hiring decisions.

Trump announced in August

that he would put tariffs on

nearly all Chinese imports by the

end of the year, a major escala-

tion of the trade war that has left

many retailers and manufactur-

ers trying to figure o ut what t o do

ahead of the holiday shopping

season.

Big retailers, including

Macy’s, Best Buy and Home De-

pot, have warned that prices may

rise in their stores and earnings

may slip as the tariffs take effect

on a wide variety of popular

items.

White House officials said Fri-

day that top U. S. and Chinese

negotiators are set to meet next

month to discuss a possible t rade

deal. Trump and his advisers said

the economy would be a lot

better off if the Fed cuts interest

rates at i ts upcoming meeting set

for Sept. 18.

“I agree with @jimcramer, the

Fed should lower rates. They

were WAY too early to raise, and

Way too late to cut — and big

dose quantitative tightening

didn’t exactly help either. Where

did I find this guy Jerome? Oh

well, you can’t win them all!”

Trump tweeted, referring t o Pow-

ell, who Trump handpicked in

2017 for the top job at the central

bank.

The president has tweeted

more than 30 times since Aug. 1

that the Fed should cut interest

rates aggressively, a move that

typically happens when the U.S.

economy is on the verge of a

recession. The central bank is

expected to enact a modest inter-

est rate cut this month, well

short of the action Trump wants.

Trump tweeted later Friday

that “The Economy is great. The

only thing adding to ‘uncertain-

ty’ is the Fake News!”

[email protected]

In latest sign that trade war is starting to hurt, hiring cools

130,000 jobs were added

in August, below

expectations of 160,

MICHAEL NAGLE/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Monitors display stock market information as pedestrians are reflected in a window at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York. Although

Americans appear to be concerned about the economy, they have yet to pull back on spending to the degree that businesses have.