ScAm - 09.2019

(vip2019) #1
September 2019, ScientificAmerican.com 83

=yŸ‘›ï

130

140

150

160

170

30 40 50 60

yŸ‘›ï

 ́D ́D ́Ÿ®Dïym
mŸåÈ ̈DĂjï›y
̈Ÿ ́yåàDȟm ̈Ă
DÈÈyDàD ́m
mŸåDÈÈyD๠́y
DïDyÎ

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

–1

–2

–3

–4

–5

–6

–7
2006 2008 2010 2012

0yà`y ́ï›D ́‘yŸ ́à¹åå¹®yåïŸ`0à¹mù`ïÊ0Ëj?yDà¹ÿyà?yDà

0àŸ¹àUD ́§yåDïy幆‘à¹Āï› 0๦y`ïym‘à¹Āï›

0ùU ̈Ÿå›ymmDïD

3›DmŸ ́‘囹Āå
ï›yUD ́§ßå
ÈàymŸ` ́幆
›¹ĀÈùU ̈Ÿå›ym
mDïD®Ÿ‘›ïUy
àyÿŸåymÎ

›D ́`y¹†ĀŸ ́ ́Ÿ ́‘y ̈y` ́

 ́D ́Æùïùày
ï›àyyž®¹ ́ï›
ÈyàŸ¹mjï›y
Èyà`y ́ï`›D ́‘y
Ÿ ́0囹ù ̈m
̈Ÿyå¹®yĀ›yày
Ÿ ́ï›yàym
å›DmymDàyD
¹ ́μĈ¹ù﹆
ÀĈĈ¹``D培 ́åÎ

Illustration by Tiffany Farrant-Gonzalez (election needle)

MULTIPLE SAMPLES IN TIME
0 ̈¹ïïŸ ́‘®ù ̈ïŸÈ ̈yȹååŸU ̈y¹ùï`¹®yåDå†àD®yåŸ ́D ́D ́Ÿ®D ́®D§yåù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂÿŸå`yàD ̈D ́m
®ù`››Dàmyà﹟‘ ́¹àyÎ5›Ÿåïy`› ́ŸÕùyj`D ̈ ̈ym›Ăȹï›yïŸ`D ̈¹ùï`¹®yÈ ̈¹ïåj`D ́Uyùåym†¹à
åŸ®È ̈yD ́m`¹®È ̈yāÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́åÎ0yà`yÈïùD ̈åïùmŸyåŸ ́mŸ`Dïyï›DïÈy¹È ̈yDàyåùàÈàŸåŸ ́‘ ̈Ă
DmyÈïDïŸ ́†yààŸ ́‘ï›ymŸåïàŸUù ́¹†mDïD†à¹®ï›y†àyÕùy ́`Ă¹†¹``ùàày ́`yåiĀym¹ ́¹ï ́y`yåž
åDàŸ ̈Ă ́yymï¹`¹ù ́ïï›y ́ù®UyๆyåD ́yÿy ́ï¹``ùàåï¹yåDïyŸïåÈà¹UDUŸ ̈ŸïĂÎ' ́y
Ÿ®È¹à ïD ́ï†D` ï¹àŸåï›yåÈyym¹†yÿy ́ïåjĀ›Ÿ`›®ùåïUy†Dåïy ́¹ù‘›å¹ï›DïÈy¹È ̈y`D ́åyyD
åùˆ`Ÿy ́ï ́ù®UyๆåD®È ̈yåĂyïå ̈¹Āy ́¹ù‘›†¹àï›y®ï¹`¹ ́å`Ÿ¹ùå ̈Ăày‘ŸåïyàĀ›Dïï›yĂåDĀÎ

PROS
●5›y›ù®D ́ÿŸåùD ̈åĂåïy®`D ́yåDïyÈà¹UDUŸ ̈ŸïÆDŸà ̈ĂD``ùàDïy ̈ĂĀŸï›¹ùï›DÿŸ ́‘ï¹my ̈ŸUyàDïy ̈Ă
`¹ù ́ïï›yŸïy®åÈàyåy ́ïymÎ
● D ́UyDÈÈ ̈ŸymĀŸmy ̈ĂD`à¹ååmŸ‡yày ́ïmDïDïĂÈyåD ́mÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́åïĂ ̈yåÎ
● ́Ÿ®D ́®D§yåŸïȹååŸU ̈yï¹yåDïyÈà¹UDUŸ ̈ŸïŸyåŸ ́ÿ¹ ̈ÿŸ ́‘®ù ̈ïŸÈ ̈yÿDàŸDU ̈yåjĀ›Ÿ`›
ŸåmŸˆ`ù ̈ïĀŸï›åïDïŸ`È ̈¹ïåÎ
CONS
●3D®È ̈Ÿ ́‘Ÿ ́ïà¹mù`y埮Èày`ŸåŸ¹ ́jyåÈy`ŸD ̈ ̈ĂŸ†ï›ymŸåïàŸUù ́Ÿå›yDÿŸ ̈Ăå§yĀymUĂ¹ùï ̈ŸyàåÎ
●%¹‘ùDàD ́ïyyå¹ ́›¹Ā®D ́ĂŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈åD®È ̈yåDùåyàĀŸ ̈ ̈ÈDĂDïïy ́ ́ï¹Î
●2yÕùŸàyå`àyDïŸ ́‘DmĂ ́D®Ÿ`¹àD ́Ÿ®DïymÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́jĀ›Ÿ`›å¹®y†¹à®Dïååù`›Dåå`Ÿy ́ž
`ÈDÈyàå®DĂ ́¹ïĂyïyDåŸ ̈ĂåùÈȹàïÎ

A JITTERY ELECTION NIGHT NEEDLE
3¹®yyåD ́ù ́`yà ïDŸ ́ïĂÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́Ÿå`¹ ́ïà¹ÿyàåŸD ̈Î' ́ï›y ́Ÿ‘›ï¹†ï›y÷ĈÀê
ÈàyåŸmy ́ïŸD ̈y ̈y` ́Ÿ ́ï›y7Î 3Îjï›y o m Ÿ ́ïà¹mù`ymD ́D ́Ÿ®Dïym‘Dù‘y
¹ ́Ÿïå=yUåŸïyï¹mŸåÈ ̈DĂÈàymŸ` ́åDU¹ùïï›y¹ùï`¹®yÎ `¹ ́ïŸ ́ùù®¹†`¹ ̈¹àym
DàyDå®DmyùÈï›yUD`§‘à¹ù ́mj†à¹®D ̈D ́må ̈Ÿmy ̈Ÿ ́ï¹ ́ĀŸ ́Ê t Ëï¹D ̈D ́må ̈Ÿmy5àù®È
ĀŸ ́Ê  t ËÎ5›ymDïD®¹my ̈Uy›Ÿ ́mï›y‘Dù‘yùÈmDïymåyÿyàD ̈yåD®Ÿ ́ùïyDå ́yĀ
̈¹`D ̈àyåù ̈ïå`D®yŸ ́Î ́D ́Ÿ®Dïym ́yym ̈y¦Ÿ‘‘ ̈ymUD`§D ́m†¹àï›àDȟm ̈Ăjyÿy ́®¹ày
†àyÕùy ́ï ̈Ăï›D ́ï›y®¹my ̈ĀDåùÈmDïymÎ
3yyŸ ́‘D`¹ ́åïD ́ï ̈Ă®¹ÿŸ ́‘ÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́®Dmy®D ́ĂÿŸyĀyàåD ́āŸ¹ùå¹ ́D ́yÿyž
́Ÿ ́‘Ā›y ́ù ́yāÈy`ïymyÿy ́ïåïàD ́åȟàymÎ7 ́`yàž
ïDŸ ́ïĂÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́å o  Èà¹ÿ¹§yD ́āŸyïĂ
ï›DïŸåÈà¹È¹à ́D ̈ï¹ï›yù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂ
Ÿ ́ï›ymDïDÎ
ùïD† ïyàmy`Dmy幆
Èy¹È ̈yåyyŸ ́‘¹ ́ ̈ĂåïDïŸ`È๞
¦y` ́冹ày ̈y` ́¹ùï`¹®yå
ï›DïD ̈ ̈¹ĀymÿŸyĀyàåï¹¹ÿyàž
̈¹¹§ù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂjåùmmy ́ ̈Ă
囟†ïŸ ́‘ï¹DÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́
ï›DïÈà¹ÿ¹§ymDÿŸå`yàD ̈
àyD` ́ï¹ù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂ
ĀDåù ́åyïï ̈Ÿ ́‘Î

HYBRID APPROACHES
y埑 ́yàå`D ́`àyDïyy‡y`ïŸÿyù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́åUĂ`¹®UŸ ́Ÿ ́‘
mŸ‡yày ́ïïy`› ́ŸÕùyåàDï›yàï›D ́`›¹¹åŸ ́‘DåïD ́mDàm`›DàïÚïĂÈyÎÛ
' ́yyāD®È ̈yŸåD†D ́`›Dàïj®Dmy†D®¹ùåUĂï›y
D ́§¹† ́‘ ̈D ́m
Ê o  ËÎïmyȟ`ïåmDïDùÈï¹ï›yÈàyåy ́ïÊ  t    o  ott    Ëjï›y ́
È๦y` ́åŸ ́ï¹ï›y†ùïùàyÊ   t    Ëèù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂDU¹ùïï›yÈDåïŸå
D ́Ÿ®È¹àïD ́ï`¹®È¹ ́y ́ïŸ ́DååyååŸ ́‘ù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂDU¹ùïï›y†ùïùàyÎ
5›y†D ́`›Dà ïÈàyåy ́ïåÈà¹UDUŸ ̈ŸïĂ†à¹®›Ÿ‘›yà`›D ́`yÊ  )
ï¹ ̈yååyà`›D ́`yÊ  t       ËŸ ́®ù ̈ïŸÈ ̈yUD ́måï›DïàyÈàyåy ́ïmŸ‡yàž
y ́ï ̈yÿy ̈幆`¹ ́Šmy ́`yjĀ›Ÿ`›ï›yàyDmyà`D ́`›¹¹åy†à¹®Î2yDmyàå
`D ́Èyà`yŸÿyï›yŸ ́†¹à®D ́ï›à¹ù‘›ï›yȹåŸïŸ¹ ́¹†ï›yym‘y幆ï›y
UD ́måjDåĀy ̈ ̈Då ̈Ÿ‘›ï ́yååÿyàåùåmDৠ́yååÎ3¹®y®¹myà ́幆ïĀDày
ÈD`§D‘y冹àåïDïŸåïŸ`D ̈‘àDțŸ`åD ́m®¹my ̈Ÿ ́‘®D§yŸïyDåĂï¹
`¹®UŸ ́yù ́`yàïDŸ ́ïĂÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́DÈÈà¹D`›yåÎ

MORE TO EXPLORE
Picturing the Uncertain World: How to Understand, Communicate,
and Control Uncertainty through Graphical Display. Harold Wainer.
Princeton University Press, 2009.
Visualizing Uncertainty. Claus O. Wilke in Fundamentals of Data
Visualization. O’Reilly Media, 2019.
Uncertainty + Visualization, Explained. Blog series by Jessica Hullman
and Matthew Kay. ›ïïÈåiëë®ymŸù®Î¹®ë®ù ̈ïŸÈ ̈yžÿŸyĀåžÿŸåùD ̈ŸĆD ́ž àyåyDà›žyāÈ ̈DŸ ́ym
FROM OUR ARCHIVES
Saving Big Data from Itself. Alex “Sandy” Pentland; August 2014.
scientificamerican.com/magazine/sa
SOURCE:


INFLATION REPORT


. BANK OF ENGLAND, FEBRUARY 2010 (


GDP chart


)

Free download pdf