Private Individuals 197While many studies exploring groupthink apply the concept to small groups during
crises, recent work has expanded the application of groupthink to explaining long- term
changes in ideas. One po liti cal scientist examines group decision making surrounding
the decision of the Bush administration to see Saddam Hussein not just as a difficult
dictator but also as a major threat to U.S. national security following 9/11. President
George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld
drove policy, influencing the other members. Following the trauma of 9/11, there was
increasing conformity of ideas consistent with the hawks. Moved by that cohesiveness,
“the illusion of una nim i ty then involved little examination of alternative courses of
ac t ion.”^14 Mindguards controlled the flow of information, and dissenters self- censored.
Participants in small groups, then, are likely to employ the same psychological
techniques, such as the evoked set and the mirror image, to pro cess new incoming
information at the individual level. But additional distorting tendencies affect small
groups, such as the pressure for group conformity and solidarity. Larger groups seek-
ing accommodation look for what is pos si ble within the bounds of their situation,
searching for a “good enough” solution, rather than an optimal one. Herbert Simon
has labeled this trait satisficing, as introduced in Chapter 5.^15
Po liti cal scientist Robert Jervis offers suggestions on how decision makers can safe-
guard their thinking and minimize mistakes due to vari ous kinds of misperceptions.^16
They need to make their assumptions and beliefs as explicit as pos si ble, be cognizant
of the pitfall of interpreting data only as consistent with one’s own theory, and be will-
ing to consider information from diff er ent angles. Yet even this awareness does not
necessarily lead to a rational model of decision making. It is not just the authoritari-
ans (Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe or Hun Sen of Cambodia) but also the visionaries
(Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere, India’s Mohandas Gandhi), and the po liti cal pragmatists
(Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, or Germany’s Angela Merkel),
who make an impact on the basis of their perceptions and misperceptions.
Private Individuals
Although leaders holding formal positions have more opportunity not only to partici-
pate in but also to shape international relations, private individuals can and do play key
roles. Private individuals, in de pen dent of any official role, may by virtue of circum-
stances, skills, or resources carry out in de pen dent actions in international relations.
They are less bound by the rules of the game and institutional norms. Many of these
individual voices can magnify their impact through social media, including Facebook,
Twitter, and blogs. From Tunisia to Colombia, Iran, and China, individuals have used
blogs and Facebook to expose grievances and corruption and or ga nize protests and
demonstrations in support of their individual position.