The Environment— Protecting the Global Commons 409Mediterranean coast. And the country has been a leader in desalination: now half
of the country’s drinking water comes from seawater. With the exception of the rich
Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, who have installed desalination
plants, other states lag behind. The World Bank predicts that in the twenty- first century,
water could be the major po liti cal issue between Israel and Jordan, since Israeli author-
ities control access to scarce water on the West Bank of the Jordan River. Exacerbating
the conflict is the Israeli and Palestinian fight over water. Israel permits its own settlers
greater access to the resource, restricting access to the Palestinians in the occupied
West Bank and occasionally cutting off supplies to express po liti cal dissatisfaction. In
the Gaza Strip, where the population is growing 4.6 percent annually, resources have
been depleted and the water is polluted, intensifying the conflict with Israel. There
is no solution to the water crisis in either the West Bank or Gaza without Israel’s
participation.
Another brewing conflict over water surrounds the Grand Renaissance Dam, cur-
rently under construction in Ethiopia, the source of the Nile River. When completed
in 2018 or 2019, it will be Africa’s largest hydropower dam, encompassing 685 square
miles. Egypt, the downstream state, relies totally on the waters of the Nile, and is not
pleased by the anticipated lower river flows. With agriculture threatened, Egypt sees
access to river water as an issue of national security. Under an agreement reached dur-
ing the colonial era, Egypt and Sudan got most of the Nile’s waters for their own use.
The Grand Re nais sance Dam would change that historic allocation. No won der
during 2013 talks on the issue, Egyptian authorities reported that Egypt was keeping
all options open. While not calling for war, Egypt has made it clear that its water
security cannot be violated.
The story is much the same in Central Asia, where two upstream countries with
relatively poor land, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, are the water source for areas down-
stream with good land. Under the old system in the Soviet Union, water was freely
available for downstream users. Now, conflict has arisen because water systems are in
decay and no new system for water allocation has been developed. Disputes over fresh-
water resources are related to population trends.
Population Issues
Recognition of the potential world population prob lem occurred centuries ago. In 1798,
Thomas Malthus posited a key relationship. If population grows unchecked, it will
increase at a geometric rate (1, 2, 4, 8,... ), whereas food resources will increase at an
arithmetic rate (1, 2, 3, 4,... ). Very quickly, he postulated, population increases will
outstrip food production. This scenario is called the Malthusian dilemma. Although
Malthus did not think productivity would keep up with population growth rates, he