12 Leaders The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019
1I
f mario draghihad been hoping for a quiet few months be-
fore he retires from the European Central Bank (ecb)at the end
of October, he has been disappointed. He has been in charge for
eight high-wire years. In 2012 he quelled panic about the
break-up of the euro zone by pledging to do “whatever it takes” to
save the single currency. In 2015 he introduced quantitative eas-
ing (qe, creating money to buy bonds) in the face of fierce oppo-
sition from northern member states. Now the euro zone is flirt-
ing with recession and governments are not helping by being
slow to loosen fiscal policy. At the central bank’s meeting on Sep-
tember 12th, Mr Draghi must dust himself down one last time.Investors’ jitters about a recession and the impact of the trade
war have sent bond yields tumbling. The ecb’s hawks—such as
Jens Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank, and Klaas Knot, of
the Dutch central bank—caution against overreacting with a
large stimulus. But the economic data are dreadful. Output in
Germany shrank in the second quarter, and some economists are
pencilling in another contraction in the third. Italy is stagnating.
According to a survey of purchasing managers released on Sep-
tember 2nd, Europe’s manufacturing decline shows no sign of
abating. The deeper it is and the longer it lasts, the more likely
that trouble brims over into the rest of the economy. In GermanyParting gifts
Before he steps down, Mario Draghi must make one last standThe European Central BankB
oris johnsonhas been Conservative leader for little more
than a month, and until this week had appeared in Parlia-
ment as prime minister only once. But that did not stop him car-
rying out the biggest purge in the party’s history on September
3rd. After a backbench rebellion led to a resounding defeat of his
uncompromising Brexit policy, 21 moderate Conservative mps,
including seven former cabinet members and a grandson of
Winston Churchill, had the whip withdrawn and were told they
would not be allowed to stand as Tories at the next election.
It was the most dramatic step in a long process: the transfor-
mation of Britain’s ruling party from conservatives into radical
populists (see Britain section). The capture of the Tories by fanat-
ics determined to pursue a no-deal Brexit has caused the party to
abandon the principles by which it has governed
Britain for most of the past century. With an
election looming, and the Labour opposition
captured by an equally radical hard-left, the
Tories’ sinister metamorphosis is terrible news.
Junking more than 40 years of cautious pro-
Europeanism after the referendum of 2016 was
itself a big change. But under Mr Johnson and
his Svengali-like adviser, Dominic Cummings,
who masterminded the Leave campaign, the Tory party has be-
come not just pro-Brexit but pro-no-deal. Mr Johnson claims he
is working flat-out to get a better withdrawal agreement from the
eu. Yet in his flailing performance before mps this week, like an
undergraduate bluffing his way through a viva, he was found out.
He has no real proposal for replacing the contested Irish back-
stop. Reports that Mr Cummings privately admitted the negotia-
tions in Brussels are a “sham” ring all too true. Mr Johnson’s un-
conservative plan seems to be to win a quick election, either after
crashing out with no deal or, as it has turned out, claiming to
have been thwarted by “enemies of the people” in Parliament.
The religion of no-deal has wrecked other Conservative prin-
ciples. Sajid Javid, the fiscally prudent chancellor, this weekdished out billions of pounds worth of pre-election goodies. He
gave money to public services without demanding much in the
way of reform, and focused on day-to-day spending rather than
investing for the future. Spending power was supposedly being
kept aside to cope with a no-deal crash-out. But faith dictates
that no-deal will do no great harm to the economy, so no safety-
net is required. To show any such caution, as Mr Javid’s predeces-
sor (now an ex-Tory) did, is a form of heresy.
The most unconservative behaviour of Mr Johnson’s govern-
ment has been its constitutional recklessness. Not only has it
suspended Parliament (having said that it would not), so as to
limit mps’ time to legislate on Brexit (which, again, it said was
unconnected). It also toyed with using even more underhand
tactics, such as recommending that the queen
not enact legislation passed by Parliament.
Would the government abide by the law, a cabi-
net ally of Mr Johnson was asked? “We will see
what the legislation says,” he replied. In a coun-
try whose constitution depends on a willing-
ness to follow convention and tradition, even
making such a threat weakens the rules—and
paves the way for the next round of abuses, be it
by a Labour or Tory government.
This week there were still just enough conservatives in the
Conservative Party to block the most dangerous part of Mr John-
son’s Brexit policy. As we went to press, a bill designed to stop no-
deal was making its way through the House of Lords. But the de-
feat of the government, and its loss of any sort of majority, points
towards an election. It will be a contest in which, for the first
time in living memory, Britain has no centre-right party. Nor,
thanks to Labour’s far-left leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will it have a
mainstream opposition. Instead the two leading parties will, in
their different ways, be bent on damaging the economy; and
both will pose a threat to Britain’s institutions. Brexit’s dreadful
consequences continue. 7The Unconservative Party
The Tories’ tightening embrace of radical populism sets Britain up for a dangerously polarised electionBritish politics