26 Britain The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019
2 seems likely to end in no-deal, leaves a qui-
et majority of the parliamentary party un-
easy. No-dealers make up only a small frac-
tion of Tory mps. A cabinet member who
enthusiastically campaigned for Brexit ad-
mits that no-deal would be a catastrophe.
But mps are willing to serve, partly because
Mr Johnson seems determined to move
things forward one way or another. “They
may not agree, but they are happy for the
direction,” says one cabinet minister.
Setting the route is Dominic Cum-
mings, the prime minister’s chief adviser,
who will not even say whether he is a mem-
ber of the Conservatives. When running for
office, Mr Johnson promised an inclusive,
“one nation” style of government. Instead,
he has set about shaking the country’s in-
stitutions, suspending Parliament for the
longest period since 1945 in order to reduce
the time mps have to debate Brexit. Hither-
to unimaginable tactics, such as asking the
queen to veto anti-no-deal legislation, are
now openly discussed. “This Conservative
government...seems to not be very conser-
vative, fiscally or institutionally,” noted
Ryan Shorthouse of Bright Blue, a liberal
Tory think-tank.
The strong-arm techniques are in stark
contrast to the days when David Cameron
ran the party, and Eurosceptic rebels ran
amok. Under Mr Johnson, such sedition is
not acceptable, as this week’s purge was in-
tended to show. Figures from Vote Leave,
the main campaigning group behind the
Brexit vote, call the shots in Downing
Street, causing long-serving Tory mps to
shake their jowls at the state of affairs. Sir
Roger Gale, an mpsince 1983, declared: “You
have, at the heart of Number 10, as the
prime minister’s senior adviser, an un-
elected, foul-mouthed oaf.” A “One Nation”
group of about 100 moderate Conservative
mps have demanded that Mr Johnson rein-
state their sacked colleagues.
Yet for all the fury over the deselections,
Mr Cummings’s strategy remains just
about intact. The prime minister and his
aides want an election in which Mr John-
son is portrayed as the champion of a peo-
ple defied by wily politicians, with the pro-
mise of a cash tsunami about to break over
Britain’s public services if people vote Tory.
“He gets the election he wanted and the
framing he wanted,” says one former
Downing Street aide. Nor will the revolu-
tion necessarily be permanent. A socially
conservative offer to voters tempted by Ni-
gel Farage’s Brexit Party may last only until
the next general election, says Tim Bale of
Queen Mary University of London.
“What this country needs is sensible,
moderate, progressive Conservative gov-
ernment,” declared Mr Johnson during a
stilted performance in prime minister’s
questions on September 4th. Yet with the
Tory party in its current state, Britain will
have to wait. 7T
he returnof mps to Westminster this
week could hardly have been more dra-
matic. Boris Johnson started on September
3rd with a working majority of one and a
policy of leaving the European Union at the
end of October no matter what. By day’s end
he had lost a first Commons vote against
his Brexit plans by the surprisingly large
margin of 27. And after the ostentatious de-
fection of Phillip Lee, who crossed the floor
to join the Liberal Democrat benches even
as Mr Johnson was speaking, a rebellion by
21 other Tories had reduced his notional
majority from plus one to minus 43.
mps’ vote to take control of the agenda
was but a first step. A day later they voted
through all its Commons stages the so-
called Benn-Burt bill seeking to stop Brit-
ain leaving the euwithout a deal. The bill
provides that, if the prime minister has not
done a deal with the euby October 19th, he
must seek an extension of the October 31st
deadline, initially to January 31st 2020. As
we went to press it was moving to the
Lords, where the government appeared to
be willing to let it pass. Most observers now
expect Benn-Burt to become law by early
next week.
Mr Johnson and his advisers have
shown little feel for how to handle the
Commons. The prime minister barely eventried to answer questions from Jeremy Cor-
byn, the Labour leader, and other mps
about his Brexit strategy. Instead he blus-
tered that what he dubbed “Corbyn’s sur-
render bill” would undercut his negotiat-
ing position, making it impossible to win
concessions in Brussels. This claim was
disbelieved by opponents, including many
Tories, who say no negotiations are hap-
pening, partly because Mr Johnson has
made no clear proposals to replace the
backstop to avert a hard border in Ireland.
If the tactic of threatening no-deal to le-
ver concessions out of the euhas failed, so
have attempts to bully mps. Mr Johnson’s
high-handed suspension of Parliament
from September 9th for almost five weeks
was followed by threats to reimpose disci-
pline lost under Theresa May by deselect-
ing Tory mps who defied the whip (which
Mr Johnson himself did twice earlier this
year). Yet the effect was just to strengthen
the rebels. In April Mrs May lost an earlier
version of the Benn-Burt bill by just one
vote, compared with Mr Johnson’s 27.
Mr Johnson responded to his defeat
with characteristic belligerence. Although
he conceded that he was bound to observe
the law, he also said there were no circum-
stances in which he would ask for an exten-
sion of the October 31st deadline. The sol-
ution, he suggested, was to hold an
election before then, to let the people de-
cide who should be negotiating with the
eu. He let it be known that October 15th was
his preferred date.
His problem is that, under the Fixed-
term Parliaments Act (ftpa) of 2011, prime
ministers can no longer call an election
when they want. Doing so needs a two-
thirds majority of mps, so Mr Johnson re-
quires Labour support. Although Mr Cor-
byn has long called for an election, he now
insists the Benn-Burt bill to stop no-deal
must become law first. Late on September
4th, a motion by Mr Johnson calling for an
election duly failed because it passed with
too small a majority. There are ways round
the ftpa, however. A one-sentence motion
calling for an election despite the act might
get a simple majority. Or Mr Johnson could
engineer defeat via a vote of no confidence.
With his majority shot, an election seems
to be coming. Can he win it?
Here Mr Johnson is bullish. The latest
polls give the Tories a ten-point lead over
Labour. Yet elections go wrong, as Mrs May
found when squandering an even bigger
lead in 2017. Without a pact with Nigel Far-
age’s Brexit Party, which may be hard to
agree, it could take Tory votes. The Tories
may lose seats in Scotland, London and the
south. To win a majority, they must make
big gains in the midlands and north. These
regions have many pro-Brexit voters, but
they are by instinct anti-Tory. An election
could be harder for Mr Johnson to win than
some of his advisers think. 7After a tumultuous week for Boris
Johnson, an election is on the cardsParliament and governmentJohnson’s baby
takes a bath
No more tears