The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019 Britain 271I
s little scotland’svoice about to be
heard at last? In the Brexit referendum of
2016, fully 62% of Scots backed Remain. To
no avail—England’s vastly greater size en-
sured that a narrow majority for Leave in
the south dictated Britain’s exit from the
European Union. Since then, Scotland’s
politicians have largely played the role of
bystanders as the Conservatives and La-
bour in Westminster have scrapped with
each other, and between themselves, for
control of the Brexit agenda. Scotland’s in-
fluence, so heavily felt in the cabinets of
Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, has
waned sharply.
The arrival of Boris Johnson in 10 Down-
ing Street suggests that a strain of English
nationalism, embraced by Mr Johnson in
an attempt to see off the threat of Nigel Far-
age and his Brexit Party, is to play a promi-
nent role in Tory thinking. This has proved
too much for Ruth Davidson, the popular
leader of Scotland’s Conservatives, who
last week announced her departure.
In her resignation speech on August
29th Ms Davidson stressed the pressure
that political leadership has placed on her
family (she recently returned from mater-
nity leave) more than any conflict with her
Westminster colleagues. But her personal
relationship with Mr Johnson has long
been poor, and her brand of liberal Conser-vatism—she regularly cites Sir John Major,
prime minister in 1990-97, as a touch-
stone—is suddenly unfashionable. Any
possibility that she might unseat Nicola
Sturgeon, first minister and leader of the
Scottish National Party (snp), at the next
election to the devolved parliament in
2021, was becoming slimmer by the day.
Yet her departure carries significant
danger for the Conservative Party on both
sides of the border. Under her eight-year
leadership, driven by her distinctive ener-
gy, forthrightness and wit, the Scottish To-ries returned from the electoral dead. In
2011, the year she took over, they had 15
seats in the Scottish Parliament and one at
Westminster. She leaves the party as the of-
ficial opposition at Holyrood, with 31 seats,
and with 13 seats at Westminster.
Mr Johnson needs those Westminster
seats to stay blue in the general election
that is expected to be called soon. In the
election of 2017, a disastrous night for the
Tories in England, the strong showing of
the Scottish Conservatives was crucial to
keeping the party in government. But theEDINBURGH
A popular leader’s exit will make it
harder to win a majority down southScottish ConservativesA warning blast
W
hen thefood riots start, says
Linda, a university administrator
from Brighton, “I plan to watch them on
tvenjoying a nice puttanescawhipped up
from the Brexit cupboard.” Often includ-
ed on no-deal-Brexit recipe lists, the fiery
pasta dish from Naples requires nothing
fresh. From her stash of tins and frozen
veg, Linda is self-sufficient for up to
three weeks. Stockpilers are seen as a bit
crackers, but the chance of a disorderly
exit from the European Union is prompt-
ing more people to take precautions.
One survey in August by him, a shop-
per-research firm, found that 61% of
consumers expect Brexit-related food
shortages. Nearly a third of people plan
to stockpile and 14% are already doing so.
Anecdotal evidence of hoarding is plenti-
ful. A manager of a big Waitrose store in
London says he has seen a rise in pur-
chases of tins and frozen veg. Does he, a
supermarket insider, plan to stockpile?
“Absolutely,” comes the answer. Shop-
pers who have done no hoarding plan to
go into panic-buying mode later if no-
deal stays on the cards.
The government’s “Get ready for
Brexit” campaign, launched this week by
Michael Gove, the minister in charge of
preparing for no-deal, will spur them on
(though the associated website makes no
mention of provisioning, focusing on
health certificates for eu-bound pets, not
what to do if the dog food runs out).
But the food industry has driven
home the relevant facts. Britain imports
between two-fifths and half of its food,
mostly from the eu. That supply could be
halved because 50% of lorries coming
from Calais into Dover are expected to
get blocked by border checks and traffic
chaos, says Tim Rycroft of the Food &
Drink Federation, which represents giant
food manufacturers. There are plans to
fly in vital medicines, but not food.Stockpiling groups are aware of the
risk of exacerbating shortages. A promi-
nent, 10,960-strong Facebook group, 48%
Preppers—a reference to the share of
people who voted Remain in 2016—has
stopped talking publicly about its activ-
ities. Jo Elgarf, an administrator, explains
that it is now too late to stock up bit by
bit. “Anything now will be panic.”
Nor are stockpilers all nervy Remoan-
ers. Zoe, an entrepreneur from Lewes,
wants a no-deal Brexit and believes in
self-reliance. She is using her five acres
to raise animals for meat to supply fam-
ily, friends and neighbours through any
disruption. She has pigs booked into an
abattoir in the first week of October—it
takes time to process the meat. “I was
gutted when we didn’t leave in March,”
she says. “I was so prepared.”Cupboard love
Brexit stockpilingConsumers squirrelling away food are looking a bit less battyDig for victory