34 Europe The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019
U
rsula von der leyenwas no one’s first choice to be president
of the European Commission. She did not run for the job dur-
ing the European election campaign in May as a “lead candidate”
representing a political grouping. Only because national leaders
could not settle on an alternative did they resort to Germany’s
now-former defence minister, a centrist Christian Democrat. The
European Parliament, newly fragmented after the elections, was
barely convinced and endorsed her candidacy with a majority of
just nine votes. When next week she presents her proposed team
of 26 commissioners (one from each other member state, minus
soon-to-exit Britain), and especially when she takes office on No-
vember 1st, questions about her authority will hang in the air.
Nor can she expect a honeymoon. Mrs von der Leyen formally
takes the reins of the eu’s executive at midnight on October 31st,
the precise moment when Britain is due to leave the eu. That could
make for a busy first day. Then there is the teetering pile in her in-
tray: a looming economic downturn, disputes over the eu’s next
seven-year budget, unresolved problems in the euro zone, splits
on migration and law and order, trade wars and an altogether
daunting wider world. Her handling of these will depend especial-
ly on how political she is willing and able to be.
The job of commission president has evolved. The eu’s execu-
tive combines the roles of “guardian of the treaties” (enforcer of
rules and arbiter in disputes), initiator of legislation and imple-
menter of decisions taken by the European Parliament and nation-
al governments. It once seemed like little more than a glorified
secretariat. Roy Jenkins, the incumbent from 1977 to 1981, called his
position “the impossible job.” “Indeed, it can hardly be called a job
at all,” wrote his biographer in 1983: “The president has a number of
conflicting responsibilities but no power. By no stretch of the
imagination does [he] resemble the prime minister of Europe.”
That has changed. Successive treaties have made the president
more accountable to the European Parliament, more powerful
over ordinary commissioners and better able to set the agenda.
The latest stage of the process came in 2014 when the “lead candi-
date” convention came in, offering voters a chance to endorse a
prospective president by voting for his or her party family. Jean-
Claude Juncker “won” in that his centre-right European People’sParty came first, and claimed this as a mandate to create a “political
commission”. That turned out to mean a tighter list of priorities,
more control from the centre, new vice-presidents leading groups
of commissioners and a greater willingness to apply political rath-
er than merely technical judgments—for example by allowing Ita-
ly to bend budget rules in order to calm relations with its Euroscep-
tic government.
Mrs von der Leyen, a wonkish and unflashy type, cannot point
to much of a mandate from the parliament. It is thus tempting to
assume that she will ditch the “political commission”, subordi-
nate herself more to national leaders and restore the eu’s top job to
its more technocratic roots.
The early evidence suggests otherwise. From the start, Mrs von
der Leyen has sought to put her political stamp on the next com-
mission. She has insisted on there being more female commis-
sioners. Twelve of the 26 nominated so far are women; Romania,
the remaining member state, has proposed a man and a woman be-
tween whom Mrs von der Leyen can choose. So the next commis-
sion will be 44% or 48% female. And Mrs von der Leyen is also
planning to give the vice-presidents greater powers and resources.
Frans Timmermans, a Dutch socialist, and Margrethe Vestager, a
Danish liberal, are earmarked for cross-cutting responsibilities for
climate change and the digital economy; a central or eastern Euro-
pean, perhaps Vera Jourova of the Czech Republic, will also get a
weighty vice-presidential role.
Those pending appointments point to three other emerging
features of Mrs von der Leyen’s commission. First, she is keen not
to reverse but to extend the Juncker-era politicisation. Second, the
new commission will have a leftish hue on many big issues. In her
first 100 days Mrs von der Leyen will table a “green new deal”, new
minimum wage protections, pay-transparency measures and a
new strategy on the ethics of artificial intelligence; she has also
called for more “growth-friendly” (that is, looser) fiscal policies in
the euro area. Third, Mrs von der Leyen is determined to bind in
those eastern member states that feel unfairly treated in the eu;
making conciliatory noises about rule-of-law infringements in
countries like Poland and Hungary, and calling for a reset on the
divisive issue of accepting and distributing migrants who cross
the Mediterranean.Not to everyone’s taste
All of which alarms some. In February Stef Blok, the Dutch foreign
minister, argued that: “A commission that prides itself on being
political undermines its own objectivity.” In his view, the institu-
tion’s primary role is to be a neutral arbiter between member
states, and it cannot do that if it is constantly taking positions on
things. It is indeed troubling that the incoming president seems
inclined, for diplomatic reasons, to bend the expectations of free-
dom and democracy that the euhas for its member states.
However, it makes little sense to hark back to a halcyon era of
technocratic, supposedly dispassionate decision-making. Jen-
kins’ Europe was a simpler, more homogeneous, more harmoni-
ous place. By contrast Mrs von der Leyen inherits a sprawling, plu-
ral club riven with differences and bombarded with events. The
measures her commission proposes will probably have to com-
mand support spanning three, four or even five party groups in the
fragmented European Parliament. Her tenure, like that of Mr
Juncker, will probably be defined by how she reacts to unexpected
crises. One can take issue with political decisions that she takes.
But her right to take them is clear. 7Charlemagne No place for a technocrat
The incoming European Commission will be the most political yet