42 The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019
1I
t was athrowback to the bad old days. In
a 32-minute video released on August
29th Iván Márquez, once the number-two
commander of the farc, a guerrilla group
that waged war against the Colombian
state for 52 years, announced that he was
taking up arms again. Appearing in combat
fatigues before a banner bearing the farc’s
old crossed-rifles logo and images of Si-
món Bolívar and Manuel Marulanda, the
group’s founder, Mr Márquez accused the
government of “shredding” the peace
agreement it signed in 2016. He promised
to “fight for a betrayed peace”.
Little in his amateurish production was
as it seemed. Footage shot from a drone
supposedly showed the jungles of eastern
Colombia, where the warrior said he would
establish his new base, but the government
thinks the video was filmed in Venezuela.
Mr Márquez does not have the means by
himself to restart the war, which killed per-
haps 220,000 people and displaced 7m.
The government’s implementation of the
peace agreement has been flawed, but that
is probably not his reason for returning to
the fight.Even so, it is bad news. Mr Márquez’s
group may add to the violence that already
plagues parts of the countryside. If it co-
alesces with other forces it could pose a se-
rious military threat to the government.
farc2 raises the risk of border skirmishes
with Venezuela. And it will further polarise
Colombia’s bitter argument about the
rights and wrongs of the peace agreement.
That may shape the regional elections due
in October, an important test for the presi-
dent, Iván Duque.
Mr Márquez, whose real name is Lu-
ciano Marín, may have chosen the jungle in
preference to an American jail cell. His
nephew, Marlon Marín, was arrested last
year along with Seuxis Hernández (aka Je-
sús Santrich), a farccommander who is
accused of conspiring to ship 10,000kg
(22,000lb) of cocaine to the United States
after the signing of the peace deal. Mr San-
trich disappeared on June 30th when Co-
lombia sought to extradite him to the Un-
ited States (and popped up in the video
alongside Mr Márquez). Marlon Marín is in
American custody and is thought to have
implicated Mr Márquez. Most leaders ofthe farc, which became a political party
and has ten seats in congress, condemned
Mr Márquez’s return to war.
He cannot wage it on a large scale. It is
hard to see the 10,000 farcfighters who
have demobilised returning to the jungle.
Mr Márquez may hope to ally with some
2,000 “dissident” farc members, who
have formed armed groups that operate
mainly in southern Colombia, where they
concentrate on trafficking drugs. But the
strongest dissident leader is Miguel Bo-
tache Santillana, known as Gentil Duarte, a
former mid-level commander who regards
Mr Márquez as a traitor because he helped
negotiate the peace deal.
The ageing guerrilla can still do dam-
age. “He has half a dozen very experienced
field commanders with him,” says a former
defence official, who sees a “serious risk of
urban terrorism”. One of Mr Márquez’s al-
lies, known as El Paisa, arranged the bomb-
ing of a social club in Bogotá in 2003 that
killed 36 people. Universities are recruiting
grounds for would-be bombers, says the
former official.
Mr Márquez wants to co-ordinate with
the eln, a guerrilla group that is still at war
with Colombia. In this, he will have help
from Venezuela’s leftist government. Hugo
Chávez, the late founder of the “Bolivarian
revolution”, was friendly to Colombia’s
guerrilla groups. The current head of the
regime, Nicolás Maduro, has gone further.
The elnand other armed groups have col-
laborated with drugs gangs facilitated by
high-ranking officials of the VenezuelanColombiaFARC, the sequel
BOGOTÁ
A former guerrilla leader takes up arms againThe Americas
43 Dorian’s wrath
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