The Economist UK - 07.09.2019

The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019 The Americas 43

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government. In April, according to Colom-

bian military intelligence, Mr Márquez met

elncommanders in Venezuela.

This alliance raises the risk of a con-

frontation between Colombia and Venezu-

ela. Mr Duque, who calls farc2 a “gang of

narco-terrorists” sheltered by Venezuela,

may be tempted to strike its bases inside

that country. This would follow an example

set by Álvaro Uribe, a former president and

Mr Duque’s political mentor. In 2008 Mr

Uribe ordered the bombing of a farcbase

just over the border with Ecuador. Rafael

Correa, Ecuador’s then-president, did not

strike back. Mr Maduro, a dictator in charge

of a collapsing economy, might.

Mr Márquez’s return to battle will make

it harder for the government to implement

the peace agreement. Signed by Mr Duque’s

predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos, it was

narrowly rejected in a referendum. Mr San-

tos eventually rammed it through con-

gress. Mr Duque won last year’s election in

part because of his alliance with Mr Uribe, a

fierce foe of the agreement. Mr Márquez’s

gun-toting appearance is certain further to

undermine public support for the deal.

In office Mr Duque has tried to please

sceptics while taking steps endorsed by the

accord’s supporters. He has given priority

to those parts that deter former fighters

from returning to violence. The govern-

ment extended beyond the terms set in the

accord both stipends of former fighters and

payment for leases on the transition zones

where some live. It seems to be making

progress in bringing development to rural

areas hardest hit by the war and in updat-

ing the land registry, a precondition for

such development.

But Mr Duque has been half-hearted

about putting into effect many other provi-

sions. The government is moving slowly to

fulfil its commitment to hand out within

ten years title to 7m hectares (17m acres) of

land, mainly to poor farmers. It claims to

have given titles for 300,000 hectares, but

nearly all are to indigenous groups on re-

serves. Few farmers have received the tech-

nical assistance they need to switch from

growing coca, the raw material for cocaine,

to other crops. Short of money, the govern-

ment has slashed by 10% or more the bud-

gets of agencies in charge of such areas as

rural development. Mr Duque has yet to

send to congress a single bill to implement

the agreement. More than half the needed

legislation has not been passed.

The part of the deal to which he is most

hostile is the “transitional justice” tribu-

nal, called the jep, which investigates war

crimes and crimes against humanity. He,

along with many Colombians, regards the

sentences it can hand out as too lenient

and its judges as too sympathetic to the de-

fendants. The tribunal seemed to confirm

those suspicions in May when it freed Mr

Santrich as he was facing extradition. Mr

Duque thinks it outrageous that accused

farcmembers can sit in congress. He filed

six objections to the law under which the

jepoperates, which were overruled by the

constitutional court. For the deal’s suppor-

ters, transitional justice is a painful com-

promise that made peace possible.

The government’s most damaging fail-

ure has been to protect former combatants,

as well as activists working on behalf of the

poor. Around 130 demobilised guerrillas

have been killed since the signing of the

peace deal, mainly by dissidentfarcsol-

diers and by members of militias spawned

by right-wing paramilitary groups. Around

290 activists have also been murdered. Mr

Márquez cited that to justify his own return

to violence (ignoring the fact that some of

the killers are his prospective allies). The

number of murders in areas where armed

groups are still active rose in 2018 but ap-

pears to have fallen this year. Even so, the

end of the war has not brought tranquility

to those regions. While Mr Duque fights the

menace of Mr Márquez, he must do more to

strengthen Colombia’s fragile peace. 7

A

ny category-fivehurricane is terrify-

ing and dangerous for people in its

path. Dorian, which devastated parts of the

Bahamas on September 1st-3rd, seemed to

take pleasure in its malice. Equal in

strength to the worst Atlantic storm to

make landfall ever recorded (the Labour

Day hurricane of 1935), it struck the Abaco

islands and then Grand Bahama with sus-

tained winds of 300kph (185mph) and

brought sea surges of nearly eight metres

(26 feet). It lingered to inflict punishment,

slowing down to 1mph near Grand Bahama.

As The Economistwent to press Dorian

had caused 20 confirmed deaths, most in

the Abaco islands, home to 17,000 people.

The toll is bound to rise. The northern Ba-

hamas had suffered a “historic tragedy”,

said the prime minister, Hubert Minnis.

Dorian’s first victims were the largely

white residents of prosperous Man-O-War

Cay and Elbow Cay. (Many are descendants

of New England loyalists who joined the

losing side in the American revolution.) It

moved west to Marsh Harbour on Great Ab-

aco, where it flattened the shantytowns of

The Mudd and Pigeon Pea, settled by peo-

ple of Haitian origin. Then it crawled past

Grand Bahama, which has 52,000 inhabit-

ants, inundating 60% of the island.

Most of the Bahamas’ 400,000 people

live in the capital, Nassau, on the island of

New Providence, 240km south of Dorian’s

eye. Even there, the lights went out island-

wide and low-lying districts flooded. In all,

more than 60,000 people will need food

and clean drinking water, according to the

unand the Red Cross. As Dorian at last

moved away and up the coast of the United

States, it weakened.

Bahamians largely ignored government

PORT OF SPAIN

A slow-moving storm devastates the

northern Bahamas

Hurricanes

Dorian’s wrath

Florida

UNITED

STATES

BAHAMAS

Abaco

Islands

Grand

Bahama

CUBA

Straits

of Florida

Nassau

Elbow

Miami HarbourMarsh Cay

Man-O-War Cay

Sep 5th,

05:00 EDT

Aug 31st,

17:00 EDT

150 km

Source: NOAA

Hurricane Dorian

Wind strength

Tropical storm

Over 63kph

Hurricane

Over 119kph

No harbour was safe from Dorian