44 The Americas The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019
2Bello Will the “pink tide” return?
F
our yearsago the unexpected victory
of Mauricio Macri in Argentina’s
presidential election marked the ebbing
of the “pink tide”, a long period of hege-
mony of the left in South America. In its
wake centre-right candidates went on to
triumph in Peru, Ecuador, Chile and
Colombia (although in Ecuador Lenín
Moreno moved right only when in of-
fice). In Brazil last year a far-rightist, Jair
Bolsonaro, won the presidency. Shortly
after Mr Macri’s victory, in Venezuela the
opposition trounced the United Socialist
Party of Nicolás Maduro in a parliamen-
tary election, the last free contest that
country has seen. And Evo Morales,
Bolivia’s leftist president since 2006, lost
a referendum to change the constitution
to allow him to run for a fourth term.
Last month Mr Macri’s bid for a sec-
ond term foundered when he fared badly
in “primary” elections (in reality, a dress
rehearsal). Everything suggests that in
the real thing in October the Peronists
will return to power in the form of Al-
berto Fernández, a social democrat, and
his running-mate, Cristina Fernández de
Kirchner, who ruled as a leftist populist
from 2007 to 2015. Will Argentina once
again portend a broader shift in the
region’s political weather?
Some analysts think so. Noting that
leftists had lost in the recent past be-
cause they were incumbents rather than
because voters had become more conser-
vative, Christopher Garman of Eurasia
Group, a consultancy, wrote that “anti-
establishment, or change” elections risk
ending market-friendly policies in sever-
al South American countries over the
next three years.
He has a point. Leftist presidents were
popular in part because the pink tide
coincided with a commodity boom.
Their successors did not have their luck.Governing is hard in South America nowa-
days. Voters are angry about a mixture of
slower growth or economic stagnation,
corruption scandals, crime and poor pub-
lic services (see Graphic Detail). The fake
news, “alternative facts” and smears of
social media have damaged the faith of
citizens in their leaders and institutions.
Political fragmentation means that several
current presidents lack the legislative
majority required to enact needed re-
forms. That applies in particular to Sebas-
tián Piñera in Chile, Martín Vizcarra in
Peru and Iván Duque in Colombia. In
several cases, political honeymoons have
been short. Mr Duque’s approval rating is
in the mid-30s, while those of Mr Piñera,
Mr Moreno and Mr Bolsonaro languish in
the 20s.
Yet none of this translates automatical-
ly into a return of the left. Argentina is a
special case. The failure of Mr Macri’s
attempt to clean up the economic mess left
by Ms Fernández, and a consequent de-
scent into recession and inflation, explain
why voters have deserted him (see Finance
section). Perhaps the only potential paral-lel is with Ecuador, where Mr Moreno,
like Mr Macri, has turned to the imfand
growth is mediocre. It is not hard to see a
candidate backed by Rafael Correa, Ecua-
dor’s former populist strongman, win-
ning in 2021.
But the left has its own problems. In
Uruguay, after 14 years in power, the
Broad Front looks tired. An election in
October could bring victory for the cen-
tre-right. In Chile and Peru, the left is
divided. Everywhere the Venezuelan
catastrophe is a propaganda tool against
left-wingers who have failed to keep
their distance from Mr Maduro or to
smash the icon of Hugo Chávez, his
mentor and predecessor. And just like
the swing to the right, the pink tide
originally owed more to anti-incumbent
feeling than to an ideological shift
among voters.
Populists tend to be more successful
than moderates in riding out hard times.
Take Mexico, which elected Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, a left-wing popu-
list, last year. He remains liked, mainly
because carefully marketed social pro-
grammes and other gestures persuade
many Mexicans that he is on their side.
In Bolivia, having disregarded the refer-
endum result, Mr Morales may win
another term in October, partly because
he controls the state. But eventually, if
they are allowed to, voters turn against
populists who fail. That applied to Ms
Fernández and Mr Maduro.
Rather than a shift back to the left,
South American politics is moving into a
pattern of volatility, with short cycles of
change. That is a mixed blessing. It will
make it harder for would-be imitators of
Chávez and Mr Morales to establish
lasting hegemony. But it impedes the
long-term investment and continuity of
good policy that South America needs.Argentina’s lurch to the left, and what it means for South Americawarnings to evacuate low-lying areas. The
government wants such advice to be man-
datory in future storms, but that might not
help much. On small islands escape is not
easy. Dorian ripped roofs off shelters and
flooded the hospital on Grand Bahama.
Reconstruction will be slow and expen-
sive. The government plans to appeal for
“hundreds of millions, if not billions” of
dollars of aid. The economy, based on tou-
rism and offshore banking, could take
years to recover. The Royal Oasis resort on
Grand Bahama, wrecked in 2004 by hurri-
canes Frances and Jeanne, is still derelict.Matthew shut down the Grand Lucayan on
the same island in 2016. Still mostly closed,
its ballroom sheltered people from Dorian.
The first half of this year’s hurricane
season was quiet. Among the far-flung ef-
fects of El Niño events, which are oscilla-
tions in climate caused by changes in the
Pacific, are stronger upper-level westerly
winds in the Atlantic, which prevent hurri-
canes from forming. But the effects of this
year’s El Niño diminished in July, allowing
Dorian to form. More ferocity may be in
store. Tropical Storm Fernand has reached
the Mexican coast.The Caribbean may have to come to
terms with more destructive storms. In
2017 Irma smashed up the north-eastern
Caribbean, then Maria devastated Puerto
Rico and Dominica. By warming the sur-
face of the Atlantic, climate change should
make hurricanes stronger. It may have
played a role in slowing Dorian to a cruel
crawl. A recent study by nasaand the Na-
tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
tration found that the number of slow-
moving hurricanes in the North Atlantic
has been climbing since the 1940s. Dorian
is unlikely to be the last of its kind. 7