The Economist UK - 07.09.2019

(Grace) #1
The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019 45

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year agoPresident Filipe Nyusi of Mo-
zambique went to the Vatican and an-
nounced triumphantly that he had per-
suaded the pope to visit his country. Pope
Francis retorted that he would make the
trip in 2019—if he was still alive. This week
the 82-year-old pontiff is keeping that pro-
mise, making only his second trip to sub-
Saharan Africa, which is by far the biggest
area of expansion for Christianity. His tour
also takes in Madagascar and Mauritius.
In some ways the itinerary is apt. In Mo-
zambique alone he can see many of the
woes that afflict his burgeoning flock
across Africa: terrorism, interfaith con-
flict, environmental harm and the spectre
of state failure. Madagascar, a fragile store
of biodiversity, is similarly afflicted by pov-
erty and rapid deforestation, which re-
duces nature’s resilience against disasters,
such as the cyclones that swept the region
last spring. Around 2m poor Mozambicans
were hit by storms and floods.
With the locus of Christianity moving
southward, this troubled continent repre-
sents the faith’s greatest hope. According to


Pew, an American research institute, the
share of the world’s Christians who live in
sub-Saharan Africa will surge to 42% by
2060, up from 26% in 2015 (see chart).
Without that demography-fuelled expan-
sion in Africa, Christianity would be des-
tined to fall rather swiftly behind Islam as
the world’s most popular faith. Pew pre-
dicts that by 2060 Muslim numbers will be

70% above 2015 levels, whereas the Chris-
tian flock will have risen by just 34%. As a
net result, Pew reckons, Christians will
make up 32% of the world’s population and
Muslims just one percentage point less.
But Africa also presents pastoral pro-
blems that seem at times beyond the reach
of any religious leader, no matter how char-
ismatic. Nor does Francis, despite his com-
passion for African migrants to the rich
world, find the African church easy to navi-
gate, given the doctrinal conservatism of
its leaders.
In Mozambique’s northern tip, a radical
Islamist movement has claimed hundreds
of lives, prompting at least one Catholic
bishop to excoriate the government for
failing to provide protection. Elsewhere,
too, the country looks fragile. Only last
month the government signed a final peace
accord with the guerrillas of Renamo, its
enemy in a bloody civil war that supposed-
ly ended in 1992. Some parts of Renamo
have rejected the deal, which requires
fighters to disarm and co-operate in elec-
tions in October. An independent Catholic
peacemaking agency, the Sant’Egidio com-
munity, has been deeply involved in medi-
ation in Mozambique, and Francis will add
his weight to the cause of reconciliation
with Renamo veterans.
Christian-Muslim conflict is also sput-
tering across west Africa and would now
make any papal visit there a logistical and
security challenge. In Nigeria Christians
say they are at ever-increasing risk both

The pope in Africa


Stony ground


A pontiff who professes compassion for the world’s poorest finds Africa a
surprisingly hard terrain


A cloud of witnesses

Source: Pew Research *Middle East and north Africa

World christian population, % of total

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2060 forecast

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America

Asia-Pacific Europe

North America
MENA*

Middle East & Africa


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