The Economist UK - 07.09.2019

48 The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019

1

R

igid andaustere, King Chulalongkorn,

the fifth monarch of Thailand’s Chakri

dynasty, gazes across Bangkok’s Royal Pla-

za from a gleaming steed. The bronze stat-

ue is just one immovable legacy of the Thai

monarchy. The mindset of the country’s

armed forces is another. The king over-

hauled them late in the 19th century,

founding a military and naval academy,

creating a ministry of defence and indeli-

bly associating them with the crown.

Thailand’s generals have seized power

12 times since a revolution brought an end

to absolute monarchy in 1932. The most re-

cent coup was in 2014. The general who led

it, Prayuth Chan-ocha, has remained prime

minister ever since. But his authority over

the army he once commanded is fading. In-

stead it is King Maha Vajiralongkorn who is

fast becoming the biggest influence over

Thailand’s men and women in uniform.

The armed forces have never really

proved themselves in war. Instead they

have focused on battling their country’s

politicians. Their most fearsome foe was

Thaksin Shinawatra, whom they ousted as

prime minister in 2006. The feud between

his supporters and opponents has tortured

Thai politics ever since. But the army ap-

pears finally to have bested its enemy, pre-

siding over a rigged election in March that

relegated the Thaksinites to a parliamenta-

ry minority for the first time since 2001.

Politicians backing the army have formed a

coalition government led by Mr Prayuth.

But the coalition is a rickety one, composed

of 18 different parties. That leaves Mr Pra-

yuth ever more dependent on the veneer of

legitimacy provided by the king.

The army’s penchant for politics has al-

ways been tied to the prestige of the monar-

chy. “The consent of the governed is less

important than the imprimatur of the

monarch,” explains Gregory Raymond of

the Australian National University. Mili-

tary regimes bolster their legitimacy by

slavish devotion to the crown. A symbiotic

relationship between the barracks and the

palace has endured since the 1950s, each

defending the other’s standing.

Close ties to the royals help the armed

forces avoid change. The last coup voided a

constitution which had established legis-

lative scrutiny over defence policy. Modest

reforms occurred after soldiers killed doz-

ens of democratic protesters in 1992 and

again after the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

Mr Thaksin managed to reduce the army’s

budget and placed allies in senior military

posts, but achieved little lasting change.

Governments which make serious at-

tempts to clip the army’s wings tend to get

ousted, as Mr Thaksin’s was. Even so, a

popular new party, Future Forward, wants

to reduce the number of generals, end con-

scription and cut military budgets.

The main impetus for change is coming

from the palace itself, however. King Vaji-

ralongkorn, who attended an Australian

military academy, served in the army and

holds the ranks of field marshal, admiral

and air marshal, is obsessed with military

titles, training and hierarchy. He expects

others to share his passion. The queen, a

former flight attendant, has risen through

the ranks of his personal guard. Her ascent

Thailand’s armed forces

Changing of the guard

BANGKOK

The symbiotic relationship between the army and the king is becoming one-sided

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