GUYANABELIZESURINAMEFRENCH
GUIANAAmazonCUBA↑UNITED
STATESARGENTINACHILEPERUECUADORCOLOMBIAVENEZUELAMEXICOBOLIVIAPA R AG U AYURUGUAYDOMINICAN
REPUBLICHAITIPANAMACOSTA RICANICARAGUAHONDURASEL SALVADORGUATEMALABRAZILNearly a third of Latin Americans want to emigrateGovernment is corrupt†,% agreeingReal GDP†,change on a year earlier, %Want to leave the country†,% agreeingUS & CanadaUS & CanadaUS & CanadaEast Asia & PacificEast Asia & PacificEurope2010 12 14 16 183020100EuropeEuropeMiddle East&AfricaMiddle East&AfricaSouth AsiaSouth Asia2010 12 14 16 188070600369*In previous 12 months, to July † Weighted by population
Sources:Gallup; Latinobarómetro; IMF; World Bank;
US Customs and Border Patrol; UNODC; IoM; UNHCRMiddle East & AfricaSouth AsiaVenezuelans
living abroadBrutality and economic
mismanagementby
Nicolás Maduro’s
dictatorship have
caused around 13%
of Venezuela’s
population to fleeBrazil, murder
rate per 100,000
peopleLatin America’s biggest
country has struggled
to keep criminal
gangs in check. Last
year voters elected
Jair Bolsonaro,
a strongmanApprehensions
at US-Mexico
border*The financial crisis
madethe US a less
appealing destination.
But gang violence,
graft and poverty in
Central America have
set off a new wave
of emigration2019
4.0m2000
0.3m2017
30.52000
23.72019
839k2009
555kLatin AmericaLatin America2010 12 14 16 18Latin America20 25 30 35 40 No dataWant to leave the country, 2018, % agreeingThe EconomistSeptember 7th 2019 81W
hen peoplevote with their feet, they
usually make an informed choice.
Venezuelans, for example, have many com-
pelling reasons to leave Venezuela. Its gov-
ernment admits that it killed 5,287 people
last year for “resistance to authority”, infla-
tion has reached as high as 2,700,000% and
by early 2018 the average person had lost
11kg (24lb) from hunger. Perhaps 13% of the
population have fled—over 4m people.
Citizens of El Salvador, Honduras and
Guatemala are also emigrating en masse.
They are fed up with poverty and violence,
and people-smugglers have become adept
at transporting them. This exodus is the
main reason why in the past year officers at
the United States’ southern border have de-
tained more people trying to cross than in
any 12-month period since 2009.Venezuela and Central America are
uniquely troubled. However, their citizens’
desire to get out is increasingly common.
Gallup, a pollster, asks people in 120 coun-
tries each year if they want to emigrate.
From 2010 to 2018 the share that said “yes”
rose in 15 of the 19 Latin American nations it
tracks. In 2010, 19% of people in the region
hoped to move abroad permanently, the
same as in Europe. Now 31% do, as many as
in the Middle East and Africa.
Many are afraid of being killed. In Brazil
murders hit a record high of 63,880 in 2017,
following a resurgence of fighting between
criminal gangs; the share of citizens who
wish to emigrate has tripled to 33%. The
country’s homicide rate is now roughly lev-
el with Colombia’s—where it fell as the
government’s war with the farcguerrillas
wound down, but could pick up again if
some fighters’ recent decision to abandon
the peace accord of 2016 causes a return to
war (see Americas section).
In countries where crime has not risen,
economic doldrums have been the main
driver of discontent. In 2010 Latin Ameri-
ca’s gdpgrew by 6%, well above the global
average. By 2016 it was shrinking, due to re-cessions in Brazil and Argentina—the lat-
ter of which imposed capital controls this
week (see Finance section). In Mexico, the
region’s second-biggest country, the econ-
omy has plodded along with low produc-
tivity growth and little social mobility.
Another thing making Latin America
less liveable is corruption. The region is
grubbier than you would expect, given its
relative affluence. In Brazil the Lava Jato in-
vestigation has exposed bribes paid by in-
dustrial firms to scores of politicians. Alan
García, a former president of Peru, killed
himself in April to avoid arrest in conjunc-
tion with the Brazilian scandal. According
to Latinobarómetro, an annual survey, the
share of Latin Americans dissatisfied with
how democracy works in their country has
risen from 52% in 2010 to 71% last year.
Latin Americans are not just voting with
their feet; they are venting at the ballot box,
too. In 2018 messianic populists who railed
against corruption and crime won presi-
dential elections in Brazil (the conservative
Jair Bolsonaro) and Mexico (the leftist An-
drés Manuel López Obrador). If voters re-
main this disenchanted, more leaders with
autocratic streaks are likely to follow. 7Crime, weak economies and corruption
make emigration look appealingContinent of
discontent
Graphic detailLatin America