POLITICS | JAMES FORSYTH
that looking like Corbyn’s enablers would
be problematic for them. At the same time,
it isn’t in Corbyn’s interests to allow any-
one else to become prime minister. As one
cabinet minister argues, a legislative attempt
to block no deal only works if you’re also
prepared to change the government —
but doing that makes an election and —
because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act
— a 31 October departure much more likely.
Another challenge for those who want
parliament to move as soon as it returns in
September is that a deal still seems possi-
ble. Boris Johnson is adamant that his pref-
erence is to leave with an agreement. He
has told MPs that the number one legisla-
tive priority for his Queen’s Speech will be a
new Brexit deal, if one can be agreed.After the G7 summit in Biarritz, this
seems slightly more likely than it did previ-
ously. The EU’s position that the withdraw-
al agreement cannot be reopened does not
appear as set in stone as it once did, and the
talks between the UK government and the
EU are becoming more serious.
There is, of course, a distance to go from
reopening the withdrawal agreement to
Boris Johnson’s demand that the ‘undemo-
cratic backstop’ be scrapped. I understand
that the Downing Street view is that even an
agriculture-only Northern Ireland backstop
must have some form of exit mechanism.
But the suggestion that Johnson’s
approach might just be working will make
some Tory MPs inclined to give him moretime. They’ll be loth to join in any effort
to bring down the government next week,
and will take the view that the time to act is
nearer the Brexit deadline when it is clear
whether Johnson has succeeded in getting a
deal or not.
This does not leave much time. Boris
Johnson’s first EU Council meeting is not
until 17 October, a mere fortnight away from
the date for the UK’s departure. This means
that it will be late October before anyone
can say with certainty that there will defi-
nitely be no deal, unless there is an extension.
No. 10 has been pointing out to Tory MPs
that Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson at
their meeting last week that if a deal was
going to be done, it would be late in the day
— and not before the October EU Coun-
cil meeting. The argument is that MPs must
let Boris Johnson go to that meeting with
the ability to walk away from the table. At
the same time, No. 10 is warning them that
if they legislate to block no deal they won’t
stop it but guarantee it. Why? Because that
would lead to an election that wouldn’t take
place until after 31 October.
Even those in No. 10 who were previously
sceptical about a deal ever being reached are
slightly more optimistic now. But it is worth
remembering that the government’s Brexit
planning committees are still operating on
the assumption that no deal will happen. A
deal would also present political challenges
to the government. Right now, the cabinet
is surprisingly united. But a genuine offer
from the EU would undermine that. A large
chunk of ministers would be inclined to take
a deal that severely limited the backstop
even if that would require Labour votes to
get it through the Commons. Others, though,
would be more concerned about preserving
Tory unity and denying the Brexit party any
political space. Interestingly, those ministers
who are keenest on a deal feel that Boris
Johnson is moving their way. Set against this
is the fact that there is barely any time to
get a new deal onto the statute book before
31 October.
The summer has been Boris Johnson’s
honeymoon. But he will spend this autumn
fighting for his premiership, his political life
and his vision for Brexit Britain. The stakes
could not be higher for him, his party or his
country.SPECTATOR.CO.UK/COFFEEHOUSE
Hourly updates from Parliament and beyond.P
arliament has not yet returned from
its summer break but we are already
in a bitter constitutional battle, with
the Prime Minister pitted against the Speak-
er of the House of Commons and the oppo-
sition parties. Boris Johnson’s decision to
prorogue parliament is a deliberate attempt
to raise the stakes. He wants to deny time
to any effort by MPs to pass a law forcing
him to request a Brexit extension. His mes-
sage to them: bring me down or let me get
on with Brexit.
When parliament returns on Tuesday for
a two-week session, MPs will have to decide
how to respond to Johnson’s move. Opposi-
tion MPs had previously agreed to try to use
legislative means to compel the government
to seek an extension, as they did before the
last Brexit deadline with Yvette Cooper’s
bill. But Johnson’s actions show that such an
effect is unlikely to succeed; he won’t play
by the same rules that Theresa May did.
If proroguing isn’t enough to stop these
legislative sallies, then the government has
other devices to neuter them. As a new Poli-
cy Exchange paper from the Oxford law pro-
fessor Richard Ekins shows, making these
efforts watertight is more difficult than MPs
might think. Just look at how Boris John-
son has got around the bar on prorogation
that Dominic Grieve’s amendments to the
Northern Ireland executive formation bill
supposedly created.
What would the Commons do if Boris
Johnson fulfilled the legal requirement to
request an extension but did so in a man-
ner that made it almost certain that the EU
would reject it? This would not be hard for
him; he would just have to promise to be as
disruptive a member as possible. In these
circumstances, at least one of the EU 27
would veto the request.
Or Johnson could simply say that he
was not going to do it and that if parlia-
ment wants to ask for an extension, then it
needs to replace him as prime minister. The
only way that MPs could do that is through
a no confidence vote. We know that Boris
Johnson would not resign on losing such a
vote but would instead seek to call an elec-
tion for after Britain left the EU. Thwarting
this approach would require an alternative
government that could clearly command
the support of the Commons. But this runs
into a problem: there aren’t many Tory MPs
who would want to put Jeremy Corbyn in
No. 10, while the Liberal Democrats know
Might there be a deal after all?
Those in No. 10 who were previously
sceptical about a deal being reached
are slightly more opt imist ic now‘I hope this Brexit drama ends soon.’