TOPLINE
W
hen Taylor Swift’s Lover album
comes out Aug. 23, many in the
music business will be watching
closely to see if she can once again
hit the industry’s iconic benchmark for success:
1 million U.S. sales in the first week.
The last time an artist sold 1 million copies of an
album in the United States in a single week was in
2017, when Swift’s reputation sold 1.2 million in the
period ending Nov. 16, according to Nielsen Music.
Her three previous releases — 1989 , Red and Speak
Now — also sold over 1 million, making her the only
artist in history with four albums to cross the million-
sales mark in his or her first week (or any week). In
this business climate, the only other act who could
probably do so is Adele, whose last set, 25 , moved
3.4 million copies in its first week back in 2015.
Since then, the downturn in album sales — which
have dropped 35% since 2017 — coupled with the
rise of streaming, have made hitting the million-
sales mark almost impossible. This year, the Jonas
Brothers came closest with Happiness Begins, which
sold 357,000 its opening week.Lover’s first week will serve as a bellwether for
the health of music purchases as a business model,
and several executives and retail merchants think
sales could reach 500,000 to 600,000. Republic and
Universal Music Group — with which Swift signed in
2018 — already have shipped over 600,000 physical
copies to retailers, according to industry sources.
Swift also will rack up plenty of streams and could
close in on 1 million album-equivalent units, which
combine sales, streams and track downloads. Lover is
her first album to be available on streaming services
the day it arrives and is expected to generate another
125,000 to 150,000 album-consumption units.
“I don’t think Taylor will get to the million-unit mark
in sales alone or with album-consumption units,”
says an executive at another label. “But she’ll get a lot
closer than others.”
The majority of sales are expected to come from
Target, where Swift has an exclusive packaging deal;
the iTunes Store; Amazon, which has placed promos
for Lover on its Prime shipments; and Walmart.
Industry executives expect her to sell 400,000 copies
combined at Target and iTunes alone.As with all of her other albums, Swift is treating
Lover like a box-set release: Her site boasts dozens
of merchandise bundles, and Target will sell four
deluxe packages for $16.99 apiece, complete with
a CD, photos, a lyric book, journal entries and two
audio messages Swift recorded of herself while
writing Lover. (The only sales-boosting strategy that
Swift neglected is announcing an album redemption
offer with a ticket purchase to a tour.) She’s also
in a Capital One commercial and has scheduled
appearances on Good Morning America and at MTV’s
Video Music Awards during release week.
It’s hard to predict whether all of this will add up
to 1 million in sales. But it seems certain that in two
weeks, Lover will be floating on a pastel cloud atop
the Billboard 200.20 BILLBOARD | AUGUST 24, 2019
Will Lover Conquer All?
BY ED CHRISTMANMusic executives say the days of million-selling debut weeks are
over — but they’re still hoping Taylor Swift proves them wrongwhich are already paying for travel.
Fox News is divided into news
and opinion operations, and Fox &
Friends falls under the latter,
alongside shows hosted by Sean
Hannity and Tucker Carlson,
each of which have faced calls for
advertiser boycotts over comments
made in the past few years.
Fox & Friends’ often right-leaning
perspective makes it a no-go zone for
some artists, says one publicist who
represents some top pop and country
acts. “Even my country artists won’t
go on their show because of the
political affiliation,” she says. An
artist manager observes, “I think
there are artists that just don’t even
want to go in that space.”
Fox & Friends’ hosts and guests
have questioned the motives of
musicians with progressive views. On
Aug. 7, co-host Ainsley Earhardt
asked, “What is happening to country
music?” after Kacey Musgraves
cursed while lamenting the mass
shootings in El Paso, Texas, and
Dayton, Ohio, during Lollapalooza.
In May, when Swift said that hernew album would have “political
overtones,” reporter Carley Shimkus
suggested that such moves represent
a “business strategy for some
celebrities. They know they’re going
to get ... glowing praise if they support
liberal causes, so some celebrities
might feel pressured into it.”The musical performances
represent “a break from the news
of the day,” says Hall. “When we
reach out to artists, this isn’t about
politics — this is about their music.”
He adds that he has never had a
publicist tell him an act is passing
for political reasons. “Friday
during the summer is tough,” he
says, citing scheduling as a leading
reason acts decline. “This isn’t oneor two songs. Some artists come on
the show and perform a one-hour
set. That’s a lot to ask.”
For some artists, though, getting
in front of fans is what matters
most. TV appearances are “tough
to get, so we take them as we get
them for the exposure, without a
lot of consideration for political
affiliation,” says Peter Hartung,
manager of country act Justin
Moore, who played Fox & Friends
on Aug. 2, the day his new album
came out. It debuted at No. 2 on the
Top Country Albums chart.
Another manager adds that Fox’s
audience is important for many
country artists. “I don’t have an
issue with doing Fox & Friends even
though it’s a little bit more politically
charged than the other shows,” the
manager says. “As long as we’re not
part of the political part of it, it’s a
viable way of getting to our fan base.”
Fox News’ ties to country artists
extend beyond the All-American
Summer Concert Series. John Rich,
whose duo Big & Rich played the
series for the first time this year,co-wrote the song “Shut Up About
Politics” with Greg Gutfeld, a
co-host of Fox News’ The Five.
Proceeds from sales of the track,
which reached No. 1 on the Country
Digital Song Sales chart in June and
features all of The Five’s co-hosts,
go to Folds of Honor, which
provides scholarships to children
and spouses of disabled and fallen
service members. In August, Rich
announced that he and The Five have
given the charity over $50,000.
While Skillet’s John Cooper
acknowledges that some fans may
consider the act of playing the
concert series a political statement
— “You would have to be naive
as an artist to not know that’s a
possibility,” he says — he stresses
that it was a no-politics zone for the
band’s appearance. “Nobody asked
me anything about immigration,
who did you vote for,” he says. For
Skillet, it was simply an opportunity
to get exposure. “I would go play on
MSNBC or CNN. It’s America. We’re
all capitalists here. We all want to
sell records.”“It’s America. We’re
all capitalists
here. We all want
to sell records.”
—John Cooper, Skillet
VALHERIA ROCHASwift is the only
artist to have
four albums hit
1 million in sales
in their first week.