deal which, despite polite words from Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron about an “amended” deal, still
seems the likely destination of Boris Johnson’s policy.
One way of stopping, or at least postponing, a no-deal Brexit would be for the House of Commons to
depose Johnson and install a caretaker prime minister, who would ask the EU for an extension and organise
an election. This is a drastic option, and it is unlikely that enough Tory opponents of no-deal will support it,
especially if Jeremy Corbyn continues to insist that the temporary prime minister should be him.
Hence Lucas’s tactful response to the Labour leader, saying she is prepared to support him, “but if he
cannot gain the support of a sufficient number of colleagues across parliament, I hope he will be prepared to
back another MP from his party, or another, who can”.
Johnson could try to suspend parliament, but not even Dominic Cummings,
the prime minister’s fierce adviser, seems to be suggesting it
She at least understands that Corbyn’s cooperation is needed for this scheme, and that friendly persuasion
is more likely to succeed than partisan confrontation. But I suspect that even her sweet reasonableness
won’t persuade Corbyn to vote for Clarke, who is after all a Tory, or for Harriet Harman, who is after all a
Blairite.
It has to be remembered that Corbyn is not afraid of a no-deal Brexit. He is afraid only of being blamed for it
by Labour members. If it happened and he could say the Tories did it, and could blame them for anything
bad that happened afterwards, he would benefit politically.
So I don’t think this plan is going to work. Why, then, do I think Clarke could be prime minister? Because
that is where the other scheme to stop no deal might end up. Let us follow through the logic of Nick Boles’s
letter to Corbyn on Thursday.
He explained how the opponents of no deal could take control of the Commons timetable to pass a law
requiring the prime minister to accept an offer of a Brexit extension from the EU. If EU leaders cooperate –
and that’s an important “if” – this could work.
But Johnson can see it coming. Boles says: “We need to be ready for the government’s inevitable response.”
If a bill to stop no deal looked like succeeding, Johnson would try to force a general election.
He could try to secure the votes of two thirds of MPs, as required for an early election under the Fixed-term
Parliaments Act. But opposition MPs are not going to vote for that, because it would mean Britain leaving
the EU on 31 October, without a deal, in the middle of an election campaign while parliament is dissolved.
Boles suggests Johnson might try to pass a motion of no confidence in his own government, because that
would force an election after a 14-day period if no alternative government is formed. But that bizarre tactic
wouldn’t work, for the same reason. If it meant a no-deal exit during an election campaign, a majority of
MPs will oppose it.
It would work only if the opposition parties and Tory rebels had already agreed to back Clarke (or Harman)
as a temporary prime minister, so we would be back to Lucas’s plan A.
Johnson could try to suspend parliament, but not even Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s fierce
adviser, seems to be suggesting it. I have no doubt that John Bercow, the speaker, would insist that the
Commons sit long enough to pass an emergency law to prevent it.
I had thought that, if it looked as if a bill to stop no deal was about to receive the royal assent, Johnson