would reluctantly go along with it and agree an extension with the EU before asking for an election. Once
Brexit had been postponed again, lifting the threat of no deal, MPs would vote for an early election, and
Johnson could fight it on the side of “the people” against a parliament that had thwarted Brexit.
But that would be dangerous for him, and leave him wide open to attack by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
Once again a prime minister would have gone back on their word to get us out by the deadline.
So it is more likely that Johnson would simply resign. The convention is that he should advise the Queen
whom to invite to try to form a government. But he might refuse to do so, saying simply that he thinks there
should be an election, whatever the Fixed-term Parliaments Act says. He would then fight the election as an
outsider rather than as prime minister.
A caretaker prime minister could not be avoided in such a situation. If there is a vacancy it would have to be
filled somehow.
Of course, it is possible that there will be a last-moment agreement with the EU. Or that EU leaders have
had enough and refuse to cooperate with the anti-no-dealers by offering a simple extension while we fight a
general election. Or that Tory rebels fail to vote in sufficient numbers for an anti-no-deal bill.
But otherwise, it seems surprisingly likely that for Kenneth Clarke, 79, former home secretary, chancellor
and three-time Tory leadership candidate, this could be his moment.