The Guardian - 30.08.2019

Section:GDN 1N PaGe:5 Edition Date:190830 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 29/8/2019 20:57 cYanmaGentaYellowbl

Friday 30 Aug ust 2019 The Guardian •

5

Source: Deutsche Bank

50%

Successful no confidence vote

30%

Unity government; new elections

30%

No deal Brexit then snap election

10%

Renegotiated Johnson deal ratified

5%

Parliament blocks

no deal Brexit.

Election pre 31 October

5%

Parliament blocks

no deal Brexit.

Article 50 extension

20%

No unity government; no deal Brexit

50%

Other scenarios

Deutsche Bank analysts have estimated the percentage

Momentum likelihood of various Brexit outcomes

Call for street protests

Momentum, the grassroots group

set up to support Jeremy Corbyn,

yesterday called for street protests

and road blockades to stop what it

calls a coup. Advocating action with

parallels to the Extinction Rebellion

environmental protests, Laura

Parker, the national coordinator,

said: “Our message to Johnson is

this: if you steal our democracy,

we’ll shut down the streets.”

Momentum, together with trade

unions, has organised protests

in Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool,

London, Manchester, Newcastle,

Nottingham, Oxford, Sheffi eld and

York on Saturday and a further

demonstration in London next

Tuesday when parliament returns.

“There are thousands of us

who will join an occupation of

parliament,” Parker said. By last

night a petition asking MPs to stop

the prorogation of parliament had

reached 1.5m signatories.

Sajid Javid

‘You don’t deliver on

democracy by trashing

democracy’

16 June

No comment

Yesterday

Amber Rudd

‘Nobody should consider

involving the Queen’

16 June

‘I’m here on a visit to work

out what’s going on in my

department’

Yesterday

Seeking answers, the Guardian
found a clutch of remain protesters
outside the Cabinet Offi ce , where
Gove was meeting union leaders
from Unite and the GMB to discuss
their concerns about a no-deal Brexit
on manufacturing. Unite the Union
assistant general secretary, Steve
Turner, condemned proroguing
parliament as an “outrage” and a
“silencing mechanism”.
Asked to clarify his position,
Gove’s spokesman pointed to
an i nterview the minister had
conducted with the BBC on
Wednesday. Pressed on whether
proroguing parliament was a
political attempt to stop debate
on Brexit and block MPs from
preventing the UK leaving the EU
without a deal, Gove replied: “It’s
certainly not. The prime minister
is clear that he wants to use a new
parliamentary session in order to
ensure that the people’s priorities
are met. It’s also the case that
parliamentarians will have plenty of
time when we come back next week
to debate Brexit.”

Amber Rudd
In June, the work and pensions
secretary described suspending
parliament as “absolutely
outrageous”. “To consider closing
parliament is the most extraordinary
idea I’ve ever heard,” she went on.
“It is a ridiculous suggestion. For a
start it would involve approaching
the Queen ... nobody should
consider doing that.”
Did she still think approaching the
Queen would be an outrage when
Jacob Rees-Mogg went to see her on
Wednesday? Such questions did not
seem to please her during a visit to
Belfast. Still, at least she retained a
laser focus on her day job.
Asked about proroguing
parliament, she replied: “I’m here
on a visit to work out what’s going
on in my department, how people
are helping people into work. And
what I’ve seen today has been really
reassuring.” Asked again about the
suspension of parliament as she
got into a waiting car, she said: “I’m
going to continue doing my job .”

Sajid Javid

The chancellor was fi ercely against

shutting down parliament during

the Tory leadership campaign,

saying: “You don’t deliver on

democracy by trashing democracy ...

we are not selecting a dictator of our

country.” But yesterday , Javid was

nowhere to be seen or heard.

A government spokesperson said

yesterday : “We are currently in the

longest parliamentary session in

almost 400 years and it’s crucial

that we put a bold and ambitious

domestic programme to MPs so that

we can deliver on people’s priorities

across the country.

“To do this we need a Queen’s

speech. This is about providing

parliament with a new legislative

programme that will help the NHS,

fi ght crime, invest in infrastructure

and cut the cost of living.”

The spokesperson added: “As we

have said previously, prorogation to

suspend parliament, to block MPs’

further consideration of Brexit is not

something we support.”

a parliamentary majority you control
everything, you control the timeta-
ble. There’s no written separation, so
... you pretty much are in command of
the whole thing. And we’ve suddenly
found ourselves with no majority and
a coalition and that’s not easy for our
system.” Downing Street later said
Wallace “misspoke”.
It is unclear how Johnson would
respond if an anti no-deal bill is passed,
mandating him to extend Article 50

• but it is widely believed at Westmin-
  ster that No 10 is working up plans for
  a general election, after 31 October if
  possible, but beforehand if necessary.
  Cabinet ministers who had pre-
  viously been outspoken in their
  opposition to prorogation, including
  Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock, have
  been kept on board by the hope that
  Johnson can strike a reworked Brexit
  deal. They believe the real prospect
  of a no-deal Brexit will strengthen his
  hand in the negotiations – and then
  persuade sceptical Labour MPs to sup-
  port a deal, rather than risk crashing
  out on 31 October.
  According to a diplomatic note of
  Frost’s meeting in Brussels, seen by

the Guardian, he played down the sus-

pension of parliament, describing it as

normal. He also told his interlocutors

that Johnson wanted a deal, but was

not afraid of no deal.

The UK government appears to

be seeking to convince the EU that it

can bounce parliament into accept-

ing any re-written deal. Frost told EU

offi cials that it would be possible to

ratify a Brexit deal in the second half

of October and argued that a techni-

cal extension would not be necessary.

This strategy matches Johnson’s

pledge to leave the EU on 31 October

“do or die”.

EU diplomats remain sceptical that

a solution to the thorny question of

the Irish backstop can be devised in

62 days.

Amid nerves in Dublin, the EU’s

chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier

repeated his pledge that the bloc

would stand by Ireland. “In all circum-

stances, the EU will continue to protect

the interests of its citizens and compa-

nies, as well as the conditions for peace

and stability on the island of Ireland,”

he tweeted yesterday. “It is our duty &

our responsibility.”

 Continued from page 1

Top Tor ies pledge

rapid action to

avert no-deal Brexit

former business minister who quit

to support eff orts earlier this year

to stop no deal, confi rmed he would

vote with Tory rebels next week. Har-

rington, who announced yesterday

that he would quit the Commons at

the next election, said his decision was

to retire rather than a protest at Brexit,

but said he believed he needed to make

his intentions clear because of the pos-

sibility of a snap election.

Jonathan Djanogly, one of the MPs

who backed Theresa May’s deal as well

as eff orts to stop no deal, said he was

angered by the lack of opportunity for

scrutiny. “Legalities of shutting down

parliament apart, no deal has no dem-

ocratic backing so stopping debate on

the issue is morally wrong in my book,”

he said.

Guto Bebb, one of the handful of

Conservatives who have backed the

People’s Vote campaign, said: “As Con-

servatives we prize loyalty. But it has

become increasingly clear that our loy-

alty must be to our party’s long-term

values and not to the man who leads

the party at this time. I will be using

my vote in parliament next week to

do that. I know many of my Conserv-

ative colleagues, many of whom have

never before defi ed the offi cial whip

of the party leadership, will be doing

the same.”

Ministers privately admit the bid

to block anti no-deal legislation in the

Commons next week appears all but

lost, but eff orts to frustrate the rebels

are focusing on the House of Lords.

Opposition peers are expecting Tory

peers to attempt to talk out – or fi libus-

ter – the legislation, which will need to

have passed through all its parliamen-

tary stages and received royal assent

before parliament is suspended, or

it will fall. The Lib Dem leader in the

Lords, Dick Newby, insisted the gov-

ernment could be defeated.

“The government’s tactic to stop

the bill in the Lords could be to pack

it with hostile amendments and then

attempt to fi libuster the bill.

“On our side, we can interrupt and

put the amendments to a vote, and

depending on how many there are,

we could even sit all night every day

through Thursday, Friday, Saturday

and Sunday. We have the troops and

we have the camp beds – people will

be queuing up to stay,” he said.

Several Tories said they still wanted

to give Johnson time to get a deal

before they were prepared to vote

against him. Victoria Prentis said: “I

am still likely to give him the benefi t

of the doubt next week. He has prom-

ised that he will get a deal – I want to

give him the time to get a deal.”

Others who say they will continue

to back the prime minister include

Nicholas Soames, Richard Benyon and

Tobias Ell wood, all of whom have spo-

ken out against no deal.

Downing Street was bullish about

the government’s chances of over-

coming any legal or parliamentary

challenge. “We’ve been very clear

before that we will deliver Brexit by

any means necessary and that remains

the case,” a source said.

Labour meanwhile affirmed its

intention to play a central role in any

legislative fi ghtback. Corbyn told Sky

News: “We will be back in parliament

on Tuesday to challenge Boris Johnson

on what I think is a smash-and-grab

raid against our democracy. He’s trying

to suspend parliament in order to pre-

vent a serious discussion and a serious

debate to prevent a no-deal Brexit.”

Corbyn said he thought there was

enough time to introduce legislation :

“We believe we can do it, otherwise we

wouldn’t be trying to do it .”

Labour later released a joint state-

ment with the Scottish National party,

the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Inde-

pendent Group for Change and the

Green party. The group said: “It is our

view that there is a majority in the

House of Commons that does not sup-

port this prorogation, and we demand

that the prime minister reverses this

decision immediately .”

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