Daily Mail, Friday, August 30, 2019 Page 11THE MOB
What could
happen next
... and what
are the odds?
Protesters
hound Tory
at his office
In June, Boris Johnson claimed
that the odds on Britain
leaving the EU without a deal
were ‘a million to one against’.
They appear to have shortened
since then. Bookmakers
including Betfair and Paddy
Power currently put the
chances of No Deal at about
50-50, as does Germany’s
Deutsche Bank.
Whether or not we leave theEU with or without a deal may
depend on the result of any
no-confidence vote in Boris’
government. Bookies see this
as highly likely, with chances of
it happening at 93 per cent.
Whether or not Boris would
survive such a vote seems less
clear-cut.
So how likely are other
scenarios, according to the
experts?LEAVE WITH NO DEAL
ON OCTOBER 31:
30% CHANCE
ROUTE: Boris either survives or does
not face a no-confidence vote. He
fails to negotiate a new deal with the
EU or persuades the Commons to
vote for one. As a result, his
government leads Britain out of the
EU on October 31 without a deal.
COMMENT: That would not be the
end of the story. Boris might then
call or otherwise be forced into a
general election soon after.LEAVE WITH A DEAL
ON OCTOBER 31:
10% CHANCE
ROUTE: Boris would have to survive
a no-confidence vote or not face one
at all. He would then need to
renegotiate Theresa May’s Brexit
deal, have Parliament ratify it and
allow Britain to leave on time.
COMMENT: Deutsche Bank says the
chances of this scenario are just one
in ten. Others think even that is
optimistic, believing the EU will
stubbornly refuse to renegotiate or
the Commons will again vote down a
newly negotiated deal.‘UNITY’ GOVERNMENT
TO STOP NO DEAL:
30% CHANCE
ROUTE: Boris loses a no-confidence
vote. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn,
veteran Tory Europhile Ken Clarke
or someone else forms a ‘unity’
government to cancel or postpone
Brexit before a general election.
COMMENT: Remainers seem to have
pulled back from this, after –
ironically – failing to decide what
form their government of ‘national
unity’ would take and who would lead
it. Lib Dems, Greens and pro-EU
Tories are adamant they don’t want
Corbyn in No10, even for a few weeks.‘MESSY’ NO DEAL AND
NO ONE IN CHARGE:
20% CHANCE
ROUTE: Boris loses a no-confidence
vote but opposition forces cannotagree on an alternative government
in the 14 days required by law. An
election is called and we leave with
no deal during the campaign.
COMMENT: This is the nightmare
scenario for Remainers and is more
likely than many might admit.SNAP ELECTION:
5% CHANCE
ROUTE: Opposition MPs pass
legislation to prevent No Deal, but
Boris refuses to abide by it. Instead,
he calls an election before October
31, promising to overturn the
legislation if he wins. If Labour wins
or Parliament is hung, the result
could be No Deal, no Brexit or a
second referendum.
COMMENT: This might seem low,
given the fevered speculation in
Remain-leaning media. But these
long odds are for an imminent
election that follows legislation to
prevent No Deal. Such a move would
play into Jeremy Corbyn’s hands. He
has long yearned to exploit the
political chaos of Brexit to impose
his socialist experiment on the
British people. William Hill is offering
4/9 odds against a general election
being held later this year.EXTENSION TO ARTICLE
50: 5% CHANCE
ROUTE: Opposition MPs and Tory
rebels vote to pass legislation in the
Commons blocking No Deal. Boris
reluctantly troops to Brussels to beg
for another extension for Article 50
and once again delay Britain’s
departure from the EU.
COMMENT: As of this week, this is
Jeremy Corbyn’s preferred route,
rather than seeking to form a
government of national unity.
Deutsche Bank’s research, however,
may make him question whether this
is the right call – the bank sees only a
one in 20 chance of Remainers
pulling this off. Even if Article 50 was
again extended, Britain might still
leave without a deal in the future.By Ross
Clark
ANGRY crowds of anti-Brexit protesters
targeted a Tory MP at his constituency
office yesterday.
Dozens of activists from the group ‘Defend
Our Democracy’ held a rally outside Chelten-
ham MP Alex Chalk’s office, where they
hounded the politician until he came out and
tried to calm them down.
He told them he was against the decision to
prorogue Parliament – but said he would not
be resigning as aide to Foreign Secretary
Dominic Raab.
The MP – who voted Remain – was met with
roars of cheers when he joked: ‘What can you
do, bring down the Government?’. He said he
had ‘always’ been in favour of a ‘compromise
solution’ and warned those who ‘insist on
absolute victory risk absolute defeat’.
Tory MP Paul Masterton later tweeted: ‘Alex
is one of the nicest, most intelligent, sensible
MPs I work with. Wonder how many of those
demanding answers then interrupting and
booing him helped when he was slogging his
guts for Remain, or supported his immenseattempts to find compromise in the indica-
tive votes process.
‘Or how many have the self-awareness to
recognise the role their rigid position, their
refusal from the start to accept any outcome
other than the overturning of the referen-
dum, and their unwillingness to contemplate
compromise that mirrors the other side, has
played in where we are.’
Addressing the rally, Gloucester Labour
councillor Kevin Stephens said: ‘We’ve seen
the rise of far-right in this country via Nigel
Farage, Boris Johnson et al.
‘Gloucester has defended democracy in
the past, we will defend it in the future and
we will win.’Plea: MP Alex Chalk addresses the
activists, top, outside his office yesterday