account of the unique world
soybean market. Brazil and
the U.S. are the sources
of 80% of soybeans sold
internationally, and China’s
share of the world market was
65% before the trade war. No
country had such a large share
of imports for any other major
agricultural commodity. The
U.S.-Brazil dominance of
exports was unparalleled, too.
For U.S. farmers, “prices
are lower, and anxiety is
definitely higher,” said Davie
Stephens, American Soybean
Association president, when
the trade war passed its one-
year mark. “The only action
that will truly start to repair
our industry is an agreement
between both countries to
rescind the tariffs.” President
Trump said at a Made in
America showcase that “the
biggest beneficiary will be the
farmers” when the trade war
is resolved. U.S. and Chinese
trade officials resumed talks in
July. “I’m just going to take it
a day at a time,” said Senator
Charles Grassley (R-IA) when
asked if a deal was at hand.
In the short run, trade war
will constrain soybean trade,
says USDA. In the longer
run, China is forecast to
dominate the world soybean
market and Brazil’s exports
would soar, while U.S. exports
grow slowly over the next
decade because there are
few alternative buyers of
significance.
Nor will it be easy to
unwind the trade war, say the
USDA analysts. “If China
eliminates the tariff on U.S.
soybeans, the global market is
likely to have a severe glut as
U.S. soybeans are released
from storage, Brazil produces
another large harvest, and
Argentina’s production
rebounds from a 2018
drought. A drop in soybean
prices could prompt China’s
importers to resume rapid
growth in purchases.”
Weak ethanol
demand will idle
some plants
T
he EPA approved year-round
sales of E15, but the higher-
blend biofuel won’t contribute
much to corn ethanol consumption
in the near term, says CoBank.
“Domestic U.S. ethanol demand
will likely be flat over the
F
or farmers who recall
the Russian grain
embargo, this is the
good news of the Sino-
U.S. trade war: There
are no more Brazils itching
to become an agricultural
superpower. The U.S.,
China, and Brazil are the
unbending triangle of the
soybean world.
“The interdependence
of China, Brazil and the
United States in soybean
trade is likely to persist,”
say USDA analysts Fred
Gale Constanza Valdes and
Mark Ash. “China’s demand
for soybeans is expected to
U.S.-CHINA-BRAZIL
IT’S THE ETERNAL TRIANGLE OF SOYBEANS.
12 Successful Farming at Agriculture.com | August 2019 Illustration: id-work, Getty Images
Iowa: Fenton p. 30
Kansas: Hugoton p. 46
Osage City p. 47
Ulysses p. 32
Minnesota: Chandler p. 75
Missouri: Kansas City p. 64
Nebraska: Bladen p. 49
Sutherland p. 41
New York: Albion p. 75
North Dakota: Edgely p. 52
Strasburg p. 76
Wahpeton p. 46
Pennsylvania: Lancaster p. 50
South Carolina: Bowman p. 75
Westminster p. 54
Tennessee: Henderson p. 75
Hometown Mentions in This Issue
continue growing, and there
are no major alternative
suppliers in the near term.
Brazil’s emergence as a global
supplier took decades...”
There were many factors,
but the 1980 grain embargo,
imposed by President
Carter to punish Russia for
invading Afghanistan, helped
launch Brazil as a major
soybean grower on its way to
becoming the world’s largest
soy exporter.
No country has enough
land available to challenge
the U.S. and Brazil as the
preeminent producers,
according to a USDA
