next two years,” says the ag lender in a dour
outlook. “Some ethanol plants will be forced to
shut down or idle their production due to high
corn prices or unavailable corn.” Smaller plants
and less efficient plants will be the first to go.
Low margins will encourage plant operators
to look for new sources of revenue. “The
ethanol plant of today could turn into the
corn biorefinery of tomorrow,” says CoBank
economist Will Secor. “These coproduct
investments may include equipment to
produce high-protein dried distillers’ grains
with solubles, corn oil optimization, and new
buyers for carbon dioxide.”
Biofuel trade group Growth Energy thanked
President Trump “for delivering on his promise”
to end the summertime ban on E15. But farm
groups and the ethanol industry howled in
July when EPA proposed a no-growth RFS for- Corn Belt lawmakers are jawboning the
agency over its spate of “hardship” waivers
that exempt small-volume refineries from
complying with the ethanol mandate.
Growth in sales of E15 “is likely to remain
small over the next two to three years,” says
CoBank, considering the time needed to install
or convert pumps. Around 10% of U.S. ethanol
is exported. “Exports remain one area of
optimism but that optimism hangs
precariously” on China converting to E
gasoline and buying U.S. ethanol so it can meet
the goal.
A trade war
breakthrough: First rice
sale to ChinaT
he U.S. rice industry scored a long-
sought success on the sidelines of
the World Rice Summit trade show in
China – the first-ever sale of U.S. rice
to China – during the same week that
President Trump and Chinese President
Xi Jinping agreed to restart trade talks.
Shenzhen Hong Tai, one of the largest
Chinese importers, bought two contain-
ers, or roughly 40 tonnes, of milled and
bagged medium-grain rice for consumer
and food-service sales.
“Fifteen years of patience and hard
work paid off,” says Ken LaGrande,
chief executive of Sun Valley Rice,
Sacramento, California, which made
the sale. William Li, overseas director of
Shenzhen, says the importer chose Sun
Valley because it “clearly studied Asian
culture deeply, especially Japanese and
Chinese.” The Sun Valley rice was set to
arrive ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival
in mid-September. Moon cakes madeReporting Network, an independent, nonprofit news organization producing This article was produced in collaboration with the Food & Environment
14 Successful Farming at Agriculture.com |August 2019 investigative reporting on food, agriculture, and environmental health.of rice or wheat flour and sugar are a
favorite treat during the festival.
Betsy Ward, leader of USA Rice
Federation, says the sale at the trade
show in Guangzhou, “sets the stage for
continued regular trade with China for
U.S.-grown rice.” USA Rice scheduled
trade seminars in Shanghai and
Shenzhen in early August.
A relative small producer, the U.S.
exports nearly half of its rice, so it is one
of the five largest rice traders in the
world. China is the largest rice grower
and importer.Wheat loses ground
again in U.S.Russia is headed for its third straight year
as the world’s largest wheat exporter at
the same time that U.S. wheat acreage is on a
never-ending decline. The last time the U.S. led
the wheat trade was in 2016/2017, with Russia
less than 1 million tonnes behind. The U.S. is
forecast for third place this trade year, behind
Russia and the EU despite drought in Europe
and the Black Sea region.
“The long-term prospects for (U.S.)
wheat will depend on the health of our
export sector,” says economist Dan O’Brien
of Kansas State University in discussing
dwindling acreage for the crop. Sowings
peaked at 88.25 million acres in 1981 and
have slid downward for nearly four decades,
dropping below 70 million acres in 1997 and
below 60 million in 2009, to total 45.6 million
acres this year, the smallest area since USDA
began tracking acreage in 1919.
Exports, forecast at 950 million bushels this
year, used to routinely top 1 billion bushels
annually, but they’ve been as low as 778
million in recent years. By contrast, domestic
demand for wheat is steady at 1.1 to 1.2 billion
bushels annually.
Rapid yield increases made corn a strong
competitor for wheat and encouraged growers
in the Plains to weave feed grains into
rotations, so they reap two crops in three
years. “Really, it’s driven by the economics of
trying to pay for cropland,” says O’Brien.No 1. farm district is in
NebraskaS
tretching from Wyoming to Iowa and
larger in area than the state of New
York, Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional
District is the top farm district in the na-
tion, with $16.6 billion in crop and live-“ We were skeptical, but we
decided to buy our first Drago
and try it ourselves. What they
claimed and said it would do,
it’s done for us and more.”— Ryan Kohlhagen
Kohlhagen Farms
Rensselaer, IN