Successful Farming – August 2019

p o r k INSIDERª Continued

dark-feathered bird. Imported product

isn’t well suited to this market, aside from

some food service and canteen business.

SF: Will pork be so expensive that Chinese

people can’t afford it?

CM: China will have to compete in global

markets and pay high prices to meet its

import needs. And high prices are likely

to ration demand, unless these markets

are subsidized. Feeding its people is a

priority for the Chinese government, and

there is likely to be some government in-

tervention. We have seen this in the past.

It is unlikely the Chinese consumer will

see the full impact of high meat prices.

SF: What happens with exports?

CM: U.S. packers have worked with their

counterparts around the world for many

years and may be reluctant to sell to China,

with no guarantee they will be there in

the long term. That said, whoever pays

the most ultimately will get the pork. It is

really as simple as that. There isn’t enough

to go around, though, and that will likely

create problems for price buyers.

SF: Should U.S. pig producers expand in

light of this information?

CM: I would be reluctant to ramp up

production based on what we know today.

There is still a lot of risk. China has never

been a consistent customer, and there are

no guarantees. We also run the risk of

will want to produce its own pork. The
government wants the country to be self-
sufficient. The issue is how to repopulate
the herd when the risk of reinfection is
so high. There are already funds being
raised to begin the work, but right now
the risk is just too high.
China’s pork industry will look much
different in the future. It wants to build
fully integrated facilities, where pigs are
raised and killed at one location. That
will take years. These new, larger farms,
with thousands of pigs at one location,
just concentrate the risk and magnify the
loss. I don’t know if anyone has figured
out the perfect solution.

SF: China says it will switch its consumers
from pork to chicken.
CM: Consumers will eat more chicken
(and duck, eggs, and beef) in the short run
simply because pork will not be available.
Some consumers have already moved to
chicken out of fear of contracting ASF,
despite the fact that there is no human
health risk. This reflects the Chinese con-
sumers’ lack of trust in the government
after several food-related scandals.
Chinese chicken producers are already
trying to increase production. The indus-
try continues to struggle with outbreaks of
avian influenza and poor genetics after re-
stricting imports for many years. Chinese
consumers still prefer to buy chicken
in the wet markets and eat a smaller,

getting ASF here in the U.S. That would

disrupt exports and leave U.S. producers

holding the bag. It wasn’t too long ago that

we were looking at losses tied to surplus

production; I wouldn’t lose sight of that.

SF: Do you think we will get ASF here?

CM: Everyone argues that we won’t get

it here because we have modern systems

with strong biosecurity. Don’t forget, we

have tools to control PRRS and PED and

we still break with those viruses every

year, so why couldn’t we get ASF? The

reality is that ASF will likely arrive in con-

taminated meat products brought in by a

tourist from an infected country or in feed

ingredients. These will be hard to control,

which is why the industry is looking for

additional funds to manage the risk.

SF: What is the Chinese government saying

about ASF?

CM: It didn’t say much about the disease

for several months, which made the

situation worse. By the time China

acknowledged it was an issue, the damage

had already been done. It’s now spread to

every province in China, and there is

almost no way to get it under control. The

country is providing very few details

about the losses or how it intends to

control the spread. It is also telling its

producers a vaccine will be available soon,

which, based on every scientist we talk to,

is a near impossibility.

*Patterson A, Victoria J, Jordan D, et al. Modifi ed-live PRRSV vaccination is effi cacious following challenge with eight genetically diverse PRRSV isolates, in Proceedings. Allen D. Leman Swine Conference

2013;194 Roof M, Lang H, Eichmeyer M, et al. Evaluation of consistent effi cacy of three consecutive batches of Ingelvac CircoFLEX® in clinical lab challenge trials, in Proceedings. Allen D. Leman Swine

Conference 2010;168. da Silva N, Carriquiry A, O’Neill K, et al. Mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis of porcine circovirus Type 2 (PCV2) vaccines used in piglets. Prevent Vet Med 2014;413–424.

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