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is so important in these situations. We
need to learn what is on others’ minds
and make them feel like partners
in decision-making. Sometimes that
com munication will reveal misunder-
standings that research can reduce. Or
it may reveal solutions that make
more people happy. One example is
British Columbia’s revenue-neutral
carbon tax, whose revenues make oth-
er taxes lower; it has also produced
broad enough political support to
weather several changes of govern-
ment since 2008. Sometimes, of course,
better two-way communication will
reveal fundamental disagreements,
and in those cases action is a matter
for the courts, streets and ballot boxes.MORE THAN SCIENCE
THESE LESSONS about how facts are
communicated and interpreted are important be-
cause climate-related decisions are not always based
on what research says or shows. For some individuals,
scientific evidence or economic impacts are less im-
portant than what certain decisions reveal about their
beliefs. These people ask how their choice will affect
the way others think about them, as well as how they
think about themselves.
For instance, there are people who forgo energy con-
servation measures but not because they are against
conservation. They just do not want to be perceived as
eco-freaks. Others who con serve do it more as a sym-
bolic gesture and not based on a belief that it makes a
real difference. Using surveys, re searchers at Yale Cli-
mate Connections have identified what they call Six
Americas in terms of attitudes, ranging from alarmed to
dismissive. People at those two extremes are the ones
who are most likely to adopt measures to conserve en-
ergy. The alarmed group’s motives are what you might
expect. Those in the dismissive group, though, may see
no threat from climate change but also have noted they
can save money by re ducing their energy consumption.
Knowing the science does not necessarily mean
agreeing with the science. The Yale study is one of sev-
eral that found greater polarization among diff erent
political groups as people in the groups gained knowl-
edge of some science-related issues. In ongoing re-
search, Caitlin Drummond, currently a postdoctoral
fellow at the University of Michigan’s Erb Institute,
and I have uncovered a few hints that might account
for this phenomenon. One possible explanation is that
more knowledgeable people are more likely to know
the position of their affiliated political group on an is-
sue and align themselves with it. A second possibility
is that they feel more confident about arguing the is-
sues. A third, related explanation is that they are more
likely to see, and seize, the chance to express them-
selves than those who do not know as much.WHEN DECISIONS MATTER MOST
ALTHOUGH DECISION SCIENCE researchers still have much
to learn, their overall message about ways to deal with
uncertain, high-stakes situations is optimistic. When
scientists communicate poorly, it often indicates that
they have fallen prey to a natural human tendency to
exaggerate how well others un derstand them. When
laypeople make mistakes, it often reflects their re-
liance on mental models that have served them well in
other situations but that are not accurate in current
circumstances. When people disagree about what de-
cisions to make, it is often because they have different
goals rather than diff erent facts.
In each case, the research points to ways to help peo-
ple better understand one another and themselves. Com-
munication studies can help scientists create clearer mes-
sages. And decision science can help the public to refine
their mental models to interpret new phenomena. By re-
ducing miscommunication and focusing on legitimate
disagreements, decision researchers can help society
have fewer conflicts and make dealing with the ones that
remain easier for us all.MORE TO EXPLORE
Risk: A Very Short Introduction.
Îå`¹D ́m Î!DmÿD ́ĂÎ'ā¹àm
University Press, 2011.
The Science of Science Communication. Special issue. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences USA, Vol. 111, Supplement 3; August 20, 2013.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/Supplement_3
The Science of Science Communication II. Special issue. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences USA, Vol. 111, Supplement 4; Septem-
ber 16, 2014. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/Supplement_4
The Science of Science Communication III: Inspiring Novel Collaborations
and Building Capacity: Proceedings of a Colloquium. National Academy
of Sciences. National Academies Press, 2018.
FROM OUR ARCHIVES
Risk Analysis and Management. M. Granger Morgan; July 1993.
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