WORLD
10 | Thursday, August 22, 2019 CHINA DAILY
Trump’s 2020
bid facing
uncertainty
Analysts say the president still could
win with a ‘not-so-strong economy’
By SCOTT REEVES in New York
[email protected]US President Donald Trump on
Tuesday announced that White
House officials are exploring the
possibility of a temporary payroll
tax cut to put more money in the
hands of consumers and boost the
economy amid anxieties of a loom-
ing recession.
“I’ve been thinking about payroll
taxes for a long time,” the president
told reporters in the Oval Office
during a photo-op with Romanian
President Klaus Iohannis. “Wheth-
er or not we do it now, it’s not being
done because of recession.”
Trump’s announcement contra-
dicted his own aides on Monday
who said that “cutting payroll tax-
es is not something under consid-
eration at this time’’.
Any such tax cut would need con-
gressional approval. US former
president Barack Obama cut pay-
roll taxes in 2011 and 2012. The taxes
fund Social Security and Medicare.
The announcement comes as the
growing economy expected to car-
ry Trump to a second term is now
clouded by the ongoing United
States-China trade dispute, threat
of a recession underscored by the
inverted yield curve for bonds, wild
stock swings, plus a looming global
economic slowdown.
“Trump could win with a not-so-
strong economy as Obama did in
2012,” Jonathan Zogby, CEO of
Zogby Analytics, told China Daily.
“He could do this by painting his
opponent as a socialist coming for
voters’ healthcare, Second Amend-
ment (gun) rights, looking to rais-
es taxes and open the borders.
“Unless there’s a downturn
between now and Election Day, he
should have a good chance to win
reelection. It’s hard to beat an
incumbent running on peace and
prosperity,” Zogby said.
Recessions usually occur after
an industry sector crashes, such as
the dot-com bust of the early
2000s, or the subprime mortgage
crisis in 2007-08.
This time may be different
because the US economy contin-
ues to grow, but at a slower rate.
Employment remains at record
highs while consumer spending,
accounting for about two-thirds of
the nation’s gross domestic prod-
uct, remains strong.
With no immediate hits to the
economy likely, recession risk this
year or next may stem from the
trade dispute as companies
become more cautious and invest
less, damaging consumer confi-
dence. If so, that could create nega-
tive feedback, causing consumers
to spend less, leading to further
corporate cutbacks and job losses.
“President Trump’s China strate-
gy is failing,” Jason Furman, a pro-
fessor at the Harvard’s Kennedy
School of Government who served
as chairman of the White House
Council of Economic Advisers 2013-
17, wrote in a Wall Street Journal
opinion piece. “His tougherapproach yielded no meaningful
Chinese concessions, but is increas-
ingly damaging the US economy.”
In 1992, Bill Clinton’s election
strategist, James Carville, remind-
ed him: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
By focusing on economic issues,
Clinton defeated then-president
George H.W. Bush.
Trump appears concerned,
tweeting on Monday: “Our econo-
my is very strong despite the hor-
rendous lack of vision by (Federal
Reserve Chairman) Jay Powell. The
fed (funds rate), over a fairly short
period of time, should be reduced
by at least (one percentage point). If
that happened, our economy would
be even better and the world econo-
my would be greatly and quickly
enhanced — good for everyone!”
Making the economy the center-
piece of Trump’s reelection cam-
paign has hit turbulence. US
farmers, a key voting bloc in
Trump’s 2016 victory, have been
pounded by the trade dispute, and
retailers say supply chains have
been disrupted. Trump tacitly
acknowledged this with a $16 bil-
lion aid package to farmers after
pledging $12 billion last year, and
his decision earlier this month to
delay a planned 10 percent tariff
on about half of the $300 billion in
Chinese goods subject to the latest
round of import duties.
Last week, the Dow Jones Indus-
trial Average fell 800 points, or 3
percent, after the US Treasury
yield curve inverted for the first
time since 2007. Inversion of the
yield curve — when short-term
yields rise above long-term yields
— shows that investors have little
confidence in the near-term out-
look and bid up long-term notes.
In 2005, two-year and 10-year
yields inverted ahead of a recession.
However, former Federal
Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen
said investors should give less
weight to the inverted yield curve.
“I think the US economy has
enough strength to avoid (a reces-
sion), but the odds have clearly ris-
en, and they’re higher than I’m
frankly comfortable with,” Yellen
told the Fox Business Network.
“There are a number of factors oth-
er than market expectations about
the future path of interest rates that
are pushing down long-term yields.”rorism and extremist forces,” he
said.
Zhang called for preventing the
proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction and for maintaining the
2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action limiting Iran’s nuclear pro-
gram, which the United States with-
drew from in 2018.
Zhang said responding to challen-
ges in the Middle East is far beyond
the power of one country.
He called for regional and subre-
gional organizations such as the UN
and the League of Arab States to
deepen cooperation and consolidate
and strengthen collective security
mechanisms.
“We support regional countries todevelop good, neighborly relation-
ships on the basis of mutual respect
and noninterference in internal
affairs,” he added.
“All parties should persist in
resolving disputes through dialogue
and consultation, promote the
downgrade of tensions, maintain
regional security and international
energy security, and avoid trigger-
ing new crises,” he said.
“We welcome any dialogue initia-
tive that will contribute to peace and
security in the Middle East,” he add-
ed.
In remarks to the council, US Sec-
retary of State Mike Pompeo said:
“Clearly, from Aleppo to Aden, from
Tripoli to Teheran, greater coopera-tion in the Middle East is needed
more than ever,” he said. “We need
fresh thinking to solve old prob-
lems.”
Pompeo also accused Iran of con-
tinuing to develop its nuclear pro-
gram.
Zhang said that China has always
been committed to peace and stabil-
ity in the Middle East.
Through the Belt and Road Initia-
tive, China is helping provide devel-
opment opportunities and
platforms for the Middle East.
“China will continue to make
unremitting efforts for the realiza-
tion of lasting peace, stability, pros-
perity and development in the
Middle East,” he said.Political solutions urged after blast in Northern Ireland
By EARLE GALE in London
[email protected]
Police officers in Northern Ireland
are bracing for a possible flare-up of
sectarian violence and attacks
aimed at law enforcement officials
after a bomb blast on Monday came
close to claiming lives.
Stephen Martin, deputy chief con-
stable of the Police Service of North-
ern Ireland, said the explosion in the
county of Fermanagh was a “reckless
and indiscriminate” attempt to kill
police officers and he called on politi-
cians to resolve issues that may have
led to a recent upsurge in violence.
“We need, as a society led by our
politicians, to absolutely set out not
just our condemnation to these peo-
ple but to work collectively togeth-
er,” he said. “Police play their part,
but police on their own are not suffi-
cient to say ‘you do not represent the
society we want to live in’. We want
to reclaim the prosperity we felt a
few years ago.
Things are becoming more
entrenched and progress that has
been made is maybe slipping back a
bit.”Tensions flaring
Sectarian violence had become a
way of life in Northern Ireland in the
1970s, 80s and early 1990s but faded
away after power-sharing policy
was introduced in 1998, allowing
rival political factions to run a
devolved government. The formerly
militarized border between North-
ern Ireland and the Republic of Ire-
land was also transformed into a
soft border.
Tensions flared again in recent
months, following the collapse of
the power-sharing arrangement in
January 2017. There is also the spec-ter of a hard border being reestab-
lished if the United Kingdom exits
the European Union without a
divorce deal in place.
Martin urged politicians to try to
resolve the issues.
“We’ve had two-and-a-half years
without a devolved government,” he
said. “The terrorists have spoken.
We shouldn’t take our peace for
granted.”
He said dissident republicans,
whose aim is to drive the British out
of Northern Ireland and reunite it
with the Republic of Ireland to the
south, were likely behind the explo-
sion in the village of Wattle Bridge,
which is close to the border with the
Irish Republic.
The attack was the fifth this year
apparently aimed at taking police
officers’ lives.
Leo Varadkar, leader of the
Republic of Ireland, condemned theattack and the “cowardly actions” of
the bombers, saying: “There is never
any justification to use violence to
achieve political aims.”
And the local member of Parlia-
ment, Sinn Fein politician Michelle
Gildernew, said the attack was
“totally wrong”.
“Those responsible for this inci-
dent have nothing to offer society
and need to end these actions imme-
diately,” she said.
The Financial Times noted that
the area around the blast would
change significantly if the UK leaves
the EU without a deal and tariffs are
reimposed on imported goods and
services.
The UK is currently slated to leave
the bloc on Oct 31 and the prospect of
the two sides reaching a divorce deal
looks remote, making the prospect
of a no-deal Brexit, and therefore
border tariffs, increasingly likely.Palestinian amputee Ahmed al-Khoudari plays soccer with his
friends on the beach in Gaza City on Tuesday. They lost their legs
during clashes on the border with Israel.
MAHMUD HAMS / AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSEBeach ball
Unless there’s a
downturn between
now and Election
Day, he should have
a good chance to win
reelection. It’s hard
to beat an
incumbent running
on peace and
prosperity.”Jonathan Zogby, CEO of Zogby
Analyticsmany new responsibilities that Dis-
ney has given him ... do not allow
time for him to work on IP (intellec-
tual property) they do not own,” the
Sony spokesman said in a statement
sent to Agence France-Presse.
The separation makes it “almost
certain” that the character Spider-
Man will be absent from crossover
appearances in future Marvel films,
according to Hollywood Reporter
journalist Graeme McMillan.
Multiple Hollywood media out-lets reported earlier on Tuesday that
Disney and Sony had failed to agree
on financial terms for future Spider-
Man films.
According to Deadline, which
broke the news, Disney had wanted
to significantly increase its financial
stake in new Spider-Man movies,
while Sony refused to alter existing
terms.
Sony said the reports “mischarac-
terized recent discussions”, but
thanked Feige for “the path he hasMarvel films to lose Spider-Man as deal breaks down
LOS ANGELES — Marvel’s super-
hero films could lose their most
famous character after Sony con-
firmed on Tuesday that talks over its
deal to share Spider-Man with the
Disney-owned studio have broken
down.
The Marvel movies have together
grossed $22 billion at the global box
office, and British actor Tom Hol-
land’s Spider-Man has become an
increasingly central figure in the
most lucrative franchise in film his-
tory.
But while the teen web-slinger
has for decades been the crown jew-
el of the Marvel comic book empire
on which the films are based, Sony
owns the character’s movie rights.
He only began appearing in Dis-
ney-owned Marvel’s “cinematic uni-
verse” after the Hollywood giants
stuck an almost-unprecedented and
still highly secretive 2015 deal to
coproduce and split profits across
the films.
A key aspect of that partnership
has now broken down.
Sony confirmed that Marvel Stu-
dios boss Kevin Feige — widely cred-
ited with the phenomenal boom in
comic book movies of the past dec-
ade — will no longer produce Spi-
der-Man films, with a spokesman
adding the studio was “disappoint-
ed”.
“We hope this might change in
the future, but understand that the
helped put us on, which we will con-
tinue”.
In financial terms, Spider-Man is
one of the most successful superhe-
roes in movie history.
Holland’s iteration of Spider-Man
has delivered box office gold: He has
appeared in a total of five Marvel
Studios and Sony films since the col-
laboration deal, which collectively
grossed almost $8 billion world-
wide.
These included Marvel’s Aveng-
ers: Endgame, the highest-grossing
movie of all time.
At Comic-Con last month, Marvel
Studios set out a timeline of films
and television shows scheduled for
the next two years including new
outings for popular characters Thor,
Black Widow, Doctor Strange and
Loki — but none featuring Spider-
Man.
Feige is also expected to be busy
overseeing new Marvel franchises
acquired by Disney in its purchase
of 21st Century Fox, which include
the popular X-Men series.
Sony last year produced an Oscar-
winning Spider-Man animation
separate from Marvel Studios’
domain, as well as a stand-alone
film centered on popular Spider-
Man villain Venom.
Disney did not immediately
respond to request for comment.AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSEA giant inflatable Spider-Man is displayed on the red carpet for the
Spider-Man: Far From Home World premiere at the TCL Chinese
Theater in Hollywood on Tuesday. CHRIS DELMAS / AFPPeace in Middle East pivotal to world stability
By HONG XIAO
at the United Nations
[email protected]
Peace and security in the Middle
East extend beyond the region and
affect global stability and develop-
ment, China’s envoy to the United
Nations said on Tuesday.
“China has always paid close
attention to peace and security in
the Middle East and has always
adhered to an objective and impar-
tial position and actively advocated
for the establishment of a new secu-
rity concept featuring common,
comprehensive, cooperative and
sustainable elements in an effort to
build a community with a shared
future for mankind,” Zhang Jun,
China’s permanent representative
to the UN, said at a Security Council
session at UN headquarters in New
York.
Zhang emphasized that it is nec-
essary to increase political solutions
to regional hot spots, support the
UN’s role of mediator, promote dia-
logue and negotiations, and insist
on upholding the legitimate rights
and interests of all parties.
Zhang said the sovereignty, inde-
pendence, unity and territorial
integrity of countries must be
respected.
“China resolutely opposes the use
of force or the threat of force, oppos-
es external interference, and oppos-
es power politics and bullying,” he
said.
He said the issue of Palestine is at
the core of Middle East politics.
“Safeguarding the legitimate
rights and interests of the Palestini-
an people is the common responsi-
bility of the international
community,” he told the meeting.
“We should work together to deal
with the threat of terrorism. The
international community must ...
treat both the symptoms and the
root causes, and resolutely fight ter-
Zhang Jun (front right), China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, speaks at a Security
Council session at UN headquarters in New York on Tuesday. LIAO PAN / CHINA NEWS SERVICE