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/QPFC[(TKFC[COsRO26 Warning flags
are flying:
The world
economy is
heading into a
slowdown,
and possibly a
recession.
Germany,
normally the
engine of Europe, has seen
its growth rate fall below
zero. Britain is steeling for a
potentially chaotic exit from
the European Union this
fall. Trade wars are buffet-
ing China, Japan and South
Korea. U.S. growth has
slowed, too — partly be-
cause of the same damaging
trade battles.
Before Donald Trump
was president, leaders of the
world’s biggest economies
would react to those worri-
some signals with a flurry of
meetings and announce-
ments. They’d promise to
make their economic poli-
cies reinforce one another
and reassure financial mar-
kets that someone was in
charge. That’s what hap-
pened amid the financial
crisis of 2008, and in earlier
recessions and financial
crises as well.
But it’s not happening
this time — and Trump is
one of the reasons. Case in
point: this weekend’s Group
of 7 summit in Biarritz,
France.
The G-7 was organized in
1975 for this kind of situa-
tion: joint action to head off
a recession. (In that case,
the recession was already
underway.) Its members arethe United States, Japan,
Germany, Britain, France,
Italy and Canada.
A normal G-7 meeting
produces a long, often bor-
ing declaration in which the
leaders list everything they
agreed on, beginning with
efforts to bolster growth
and resist trade protection-
ism.
This year, there probably
won’t be a joint communi-
que for the first time since- “It’s pointless,” French
President Emmanuel Mac-
ron, the unlucky host,
shrugged last week. After
all, Trump disavowed the
consensus statement last
year.
The main roadblock is
trade — specifically,
Trump’s decision to make
punitive tariffs a central
part of his economic strate-
gy. He’s embroiled in a full-
scale trade war with China,
and he’s threatened to
escalate the battle in Eu-
rope, with tariffs aimed at
German automobiles and
French wines.
On Friday, Trump and
China fired tariffs at each
other, sending stock mar-
kets plummeting. In a Twit-
ter tirade, the president
also “ordered” U.S. busi-
nesses to stop doing busi-
ness with China, although
he has no legal authority to
do so.
On Sunday, the presi-
dent plans to lecture the
other G-7 leaders on why
they should accede to his
demands. It sounds more
like a campaign stunt than a
serious attempt to stave off
a recession.
Let’s get real: Econo-
mists say Trump’s tariff
wars have made a recession
more likely. They include his
own appointee as chairman
of the Federal Reserve,
Jerome H. Powell, who said
Friday that trade battles
appear to be hurting U.S.
manufacturing and capital
spending.
“Who is our bigger ene-
my, Jay Powell or Chairman
Xi?” a furious Trump re-
sponded on Twitter, com-
paring his Fed chief to Chi-
nese President Xi Jinping.
Neither presumably enjoyed
being labeled an “enemy.”
But the obstacles to
international action run
deeper than the president’s
trade policies.
Trump believes that the
United States, as the world’s
most powerful country, is
usually better off acting
alone, seeking one-on-one
deals with other nations.
In his view, politics — like
business — is a zero-sum
game. Every encounter has
a winner and loser. Other
countries, including those
who claim to be your allies,
are generally plotting to
steal you blind.
“Our allies take advan-
tage of us far greater than
our enemies,” Trump re-
cently declared.
That doesn’t leave much
room for cooperative ef-
forts. And it doesn’t engen-
der confidence among
smaller countries that the
United States might look
after their interest as well as
its own.
This isn’t only about the
G-7. There are other waysmajor powers can work
together to confront an eco-
nomic crisis. Central banks
and the International Mon-
etary Fund can act, too.
But in recent history,
those efforts have worked
only when the United States
has stepped up to lead. No
other country has the
wherewithal. The European
Union is too disunited,
China too widely mis-
trusted.
Trump doesn’t appear
interested in assuming
that leadership role — not,
at least, when it means
accommodating others who
don’t always agree with his
views.
“In the last financial
crisis, both George W. Bush
and Barack Obama were
able to persuade the rest of
the world that everybody in
the lifeboat should row in
the same direction,” Stew-
art M. Patrick, a scholar at
the Council on Foreign
Relations, told me. “With
Trump the message might
be ‘Every man for himself.’ ”
“You need a president
who engenders confidence
that he has the best interest
of everyone in mind,” Pat-
rick added. “Trump hasn’t
done that.”
If a recession arrives,
international cooperation
could — with luck — make it
shorter and milder. But
what happens if the United
States no longer wants to
lead in that effort? Under
Trump, we may find out.Doyle McManus’ column
appears on Wednesday and
Sunday.Trump’s working against
the global economic order
As the world slips toward recession, he’s making it worse by lashing out
DOYLE McMANUSLETTER FROM WASHINGTON
FRENCH LEADEREmmanuel Macron, right, and President Trump are joined by their wives at the G-7 on
Saturday. Macron says “it’s pointless” for members to do a consensus statement; Trump disavowed last year’s.Francois MoriAFP/Getty Images