2019-09-02 Bloomberg Businessweek

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tellsmeina RussianaccentthatI’mnot

authorizedtoreferenceit inmyarticle.

“Otherwiseyouwillonedaybreathe

the long breath of osmium,” Wolf

says,grinning.

“Yes, you will find yourself in

a mine somewhere,” the Russian

adds,chuckling.

“Aclosed-upmine!”Wolfagrees.

Asusual,I don’tknowwhattomake

oftheosmiumpeddlers’pronounce-

ments.Neither,it seems,doesanyone

elseinReno.Inanadjacenthottub,Brian

Ledgerwood,a longtimespecialistof

commoditypolicyattheU.S.Department

ofCommerce,tellsmehe’dnevereven

heardofosmiumpriortoWolf ’spitch.

JennyLuker,presidentofPlatinumGuild

InternationalUSA,a leadingtradeas -

sociation,sawWolf ’sconferencetalk,

too.Butsheinformsmethatshesimply

cannotspeaktoosmium’svalue,even

thoughit’sa platinum-groupmetal.

WhenI lateraskMunirHumayun,a

geochemistryprofessoratFloridaState

Universitywhostudiesosmium,about

Wolf ’sassertions,hetellsmebyemail

he’snotawareofthespecificnumbers

Wolfoftencitesregardingtheelement’s

miningyieldsandscarcity—“rhodiumis

rarer,”hesays—andthathedoubtsthe

institute’sclaimsthatit canberendered

nontoxic.“I wouldn’twantitlaying

aroundthehouse.Thereisnowayto

completelyeliminateosmium’stoxic-

ity,”Humayunsays.“I’mnotawareof

anyonebeingthatinterestedinosmium

thattheycouldpulla DeBeersonthe

osmiummarket.”(Wolfsaysthecrystals

arechemicallyinertandwouldonlybe

dangerousif oxidizedagain;withosmi-

um’shighmeltingpoint—5,491F—thisis

unlikelytooccurineverydaylife.Clauss

addsthattheinstitutehasdonestudies

determiningthatnotoxicosmiumtet-

roxide was found below 752F.)

Of their osmium data sources, Clauss

says they are “compilations of estimates

that we’ve obtained from partners over

the last few years. And it’s backed up with

sources on the net and also from Hublot.”

(The watchmaker is unclear about the

provenance of its data, which Hublot’s

Buttet says comes from an unspecified

group of geologists. “It is obvious that

Hublot does not have to carry out these

analyses,”hesays.“Ifgeologists tell us

that osmium is the rarest metal, Hublot

cannot contradict that.”)

On the other hand, Mark Hanna, chief

marketingofficerofRichlineGroup,

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s precious-

metals subsidiary, is charmed enough

by Wolf ’s novel presentation to order

his procurement team to evaluate osmi-

um’s potential. “It has to have a certain

level of style, sparkle, and emotional

value,” he says. “You can’t just put rocks

into [ jewelry] and say, ‘Look how cool

this is.’ You need to develop a credible,

emotional marketing story. The material

on its own is not the story. The story of

the material is the story.” And as Hanna

joked to Wolf following his performance

onstage, he deserves a show on QVC.

Wolf realizes he’ll face skepticism as

this journey continues. It’s especially

complicated given that he appears to

have his fingers on so many facets of the

market, including osmium’s mysteri-

ous crystallization process and practice

of self-certification, and his loose con-

nections to Oicoin, an osmium-based

blockchain token that completed its ini-

tial coin offering in July. The daily price

chart for crystallized osmium, which de-

picts values soaring 630% to $1,300 per

gram in the past six years, is calculated

on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that the

institute maintains and then uploads to

a website, which also features videos of

Wolf pitching the element’s upside.

But Wolf, who tells me he’s had to

wear countless “costumes” in his career

to succeed, all but guarantees an os-

mium boom. Revenue is up 150% in the

first quarter of 2019, he says, and the in-

stitute is readying a global marketing

campaign. Although it’s taken five years

toattract 130 resellerpartners,bythe

endofnextyear,heassuresme,they’ll

have“10,000peoplearoundtheplanet

sellingosmium.”Asforthose“young

beautifulladies”heconsistentlyrecruits

fortheinstitute?Heswearsthatwhatever

sexappealtheybringtotheseprecious-

metals conferences is serendipitous.

“It’s not intentional,” Wolf vows to

me near the pool, after finishing off a

vanilla ice cream cone. “I know people

talk about that! Of course I do! I am a TV

guy—never forget that!” <BW>

PLATINUM SPOT PRICE, $/TROY OUNCE

8/1989 8/2019

$2,000

1,000

0

78

Pt

Platinum

77

Ir

Iridium

MORE ELEMENTS

THAT GO BOOM

AND BUST

IRIDIUM SPOT PRICE, $/TROY OUNCE

1/2001 8/2019

$1,500

750

0

● IRIDIUM

The market for iridium—primarily used in sparkplugs

and in crucibles for growing crystals to make light-

emitting diodes (LEDs)—is much smaller than those

for other platinum-group metals; only 7  tons were

consumed in 2018, vs. 214 tons of palladium. But

iridium still sees jumps—its price rose 150% from

2010 to early 2011, as use in phones and other

tech soared. The price slumped starting in 2013 as

recycling met demand from phone manufacturers,

then climbed again with rising use in the clean

production of other chemicals.

● PLATINUM

Platinum’s mid-2000s price spike resulted from

a shortage caused by increased use in catalytic

converters for gasoline and diesel engines. As it

reached record highs in early 2008, the financial

crisis struck, carmakers reduced their use, and

speculators sold off holdings. Shortages returned and

prices went up again for a few years until around

2012, when demand for platinum jewelry declined. In

2015, the Volkswagen AG emissions-testing scandal

further hurt the weak market for diesel cars,

creating more surpluses and lower prices again.

DATA: COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG

◼ Iridium $47,583 / kg Johnson Mattheyspot

◼ Platinum $27,521 /kg Johnson Matthey spot

Bloomberg Businessweek / SEPTEMBER 2, 2019 THE ELEMENTS