The Observer - 25.08.2019

The Observer

World 25.08.19 31

Greenland saga shows dangers of

scramble for the melting Arctic

Tasiilaq, on the

east coast of

of Greenland.

Like the rest

of the Arctic,

the island has

vast untapped

resources.

Reuters

ern Europe via the NSR can shorten

the journey time via the Indian

Ocean and Suez canal by 10 days.

With the region warming at more

than twice the global average, there

is a growing military and strategic

dimension. Russia, the largest Arctic

nation by geography, is building

new military installations and power

plants. A Pentagon report in June

stressed the need to maintain US

“competitive military advantages”.

China is in on the Arctic act, too.

In other words, rather than jointly

tackle an emergency with existen-

tial global implications, major play-

ers appear hell bent on turning it

to national advantage – and com-

pounding it in the process. Trump’s

Greenland gambit, with half an eye

on mining and military bases, sym-

bolised this blinkered mentality.

To make matters worse, inten-

sifying competition is taking place

largely without rules. Under inter-

national law, the north pole and the

Arctic ocean surrounding it are not

owned by any country. But coastal

states all have 200 nautical-mile

exclusive economic zones. They also

maintain overlapping claims to con-

tinental shelf resources.

Several states regard areas of the

Arctic seas as territorial waters and

dispute international rights of pas-

sage. Russia has unilaterally intro-

duced regulations for NSR shipping

that others reject. The US refuses to

ratify the UN’s Convention on the

Law of the Sea. Meanwhile, China

has declared itself a “near Arctic

state” – a meaningless term that

implies that it, too, has rights.

D

onald Trump’s cack-

handed attempt to

buy Greenland , and

the shirty response

of Denmark’s prime

minister, provoked

amusement last week. But it was

mostly nervous laughter. The US

intervention shone a cold light on a

rapidly developing yet neglected cri-

sis at the top of the world – the pil-

lage of the Arctic.

Like the late 19th-century “scram-

ble for Africa”, when European

empires expanded colonial control

of the continent’s land mass from

10% to 90% in 40 years, the Arctic

region is up for grabs. As was the

case then, the race for advantage is

nationalistic, dangerously unreg-

ulated, and harmful to indigenous

peoples and the environment.

Until relatively recently, the eight

so-called Arctic nations – Canada,

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,

Sweden, Russia and the US – main-

tained a broad consensus in favour

of peaceful cooperation. Disputes

like that between Canada and the

US over the Northwest Passage and

Russia’s claim to the underwater

Lomonosov Ridge extending to the

north pole, were regarded, literally,

as frozen confl icts.

But then came the climate crisis

and global heating – and the dawn-

ing realisation that the Arctic’s vast,

mostly untapped resources were

becoming more accessible. It is

believed the Arctic contains around

13% of the world’s undiscovered oil

reserves and 30% of its natural gas

reserves , plus huge deposits of min-

erals such as zinc, iron and rare

earth metals.

The melting ice means long-dis-

tance sea passages, such as the

Northern Sea Route (NSR) from

eastern Siberia to the North Atlantic,

are increasingly navigable. Sailing a

container ship from China to north-

The chaotic consequences of this

unruly race were glimpsed at this

year’s annual Arctic council summit

in Rovaniemi , Finland.

The non-binding policies of the

council, which comprises the Arctic

nations and indigenous peoples’

representatives, are traditionally

agreed by consensus. But this year

it was hijacked by Mike Pompeo,

the US secretary of state. Ignoring

the meeting’s aim of balancing cli-

mate challenges and development,

Pompeo attacked Russia and China

for “aggressive behaviour” , said col-

laboration did not work, and vetoed

a communique because it men-

tioned climate change.

Polarising US behaviour is

partly infl uenced by concern that

it is “late to the game” in the race

for the Arctic, and that Chinese-

Russian cooperation there refl ects

a bigger, overall strategic threat.

The Pentagon report said Russia

regarded itself as a “polar great

power” and pointed to “new military

bases along its coastline [and] a con-

certed effort to establish air defence

and coastal missile systems”.

I

n April, Russia announced an

ambitious new programme

to build Arctic ports and other

infrastructure, and expand

an icebreaker fl eet. Moscow

also plans to dramatically

increase NSR cargo shipments.

Meanwhile, China’s development

with Russia of natural gas fi elds such

as the Yamal peninsula and its civil-

ian research efforts were harbingers

of a “strengthened future Chinese

military presence” in the Arctic

potentially including nuclear subma-

rines, the Pentagon warned: “China’s

predatory economic behaviour glob-

ally may be repeated in the Arctic.”

The US navy is reportedly plan-

ning Arctic “freedom of naviga-

tion” operations similar to those

in the South China Sea , using

assets from the US 2nd Fleet that

was relaunched last year to raise

America’s profi le in the North

Atlantic and Arctic. Nato, to which

fi ve Arctic nations belong, is also

taking an increased interest in the

“security implications” of China’s

activities, its secretary-general, Jens

Stoltenberg, said this month. All this

increases the risk of confl ict.

China’s main focus at present

is not military but on energy and

resources, via investment in Arctic

countries. In addition to Russian

natural gas, it is prospecting for

minerals in Greenland and has

agreed a free-trade deal with Iceland

to increase fi sh imports.

Yet like any other country, where

China’s business interests lead,

enhanced military, security and geo-

political engagement will surely fol-

low. Strategic competition by the

Great Powers, greed for resources,

a lack of legal constraints – and

the aggravating impact all this new

activity will have on the climate crisis

• suggest the 21st century “scramble
  for the Arctic” can only end badly.

ON

OTHER

PAGES

A mother on

the frontline:

Syrian

journalist

Waad

al-Kateab

on her new

documentary,

For Sama

New Review,

cover story

COMMENTARY

Simon

Tisdall

could trigger meaningful interna-

tional action ,” says Tobias Schneider ,

a research fellow at the Global Public

Policy Institute in Berlin.

For Dimashqi, home and her

dreams for a future in 2011, now

feel far away. “The revolution was

great in the beginning,” she said. “We

took to the streets demanding free-

dom. I wanted to be a nurse in the

Free Syrian Army. I encouraged my

husband and children to go out and

protest, to join the FSA to defend

innocents against the regime.

“So much has changed since then. I

lost my beloved Saleem and his father.

I lost my home. I’m far away from my

sister in Ghouta. The war is not over.

But I feel like I am already defeated.”

Assad because it gives his forces con-

trol over part of a key highway linking

the central city of Homs to Syria’s bat-

tered commercial capital Aleppo, and

severs an opposition supply route.

But the advance into the town

deepened the standoff between

Turkish and Syrian forces, by cut-

ting off Turkish troops based at one

of 12 “observation points” under the

ceasefi re deal. Ankara said it would

not move the site.

Syria’s government has made no

bones about its intentions to reunify

the country, by force if necessary.

The foreign minister Walid al-Moal-

lem underlined its commitment in a

meeting with the Chinese envoy to

Syria, Xie Xiaoyan , in Damascus last

week. The government would fi ght

for “every inch” of Syrian territory, “in

spite of the blatant Turkish interven-

tion”, he told Xie

But Turkey too is under extreme

political pressure to keep Idlib free of

Assad’s control, both for strategic rea-

sons, and because of fear about the

three million people clustering ever

closer to its border.

It already hosts more than 3.6 mil-

lion refugees, who have become a

political liability; authorities are try-

ing to close refugee camps and send

some of them home.

Turkey would struggle to deal with

a fresh infl ux but it fears increasing

pressure to open its borders if Syrian

government forces close in further on

civilians gathered on the other side.

LEFT

Devastation in

Khan Sheikhoun

from pro-Assad

strikes.

Photograph by

Omar Haj

Kadour/AFP

ABOVE

Children fl ee

last week’s

bombardments

across Idlib

province. AFP

Opening up the Arctic

Areas claimed by

Russia

Denmark

Russia and

Denmark

US

Canada

Atlantic Ocean

Russia

Norway

Canada

Alaska

Greenland

(Denmark)

North

Pole

Northern

Sea Route

North-west

Passage