DRAFT TIPS
ULTIMATE FANTASY POOL GUIDE 2019-20 THE HOCKEY NEWS | 9 |
YEAR PPG PPO
2018-19 47 239
1998-99 57 359LEN 1988-89^85
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Cizikas, for example, has been
a longtime fourth-liner, and he
scored 20 goals last season.AFTER DRAFT
Once a player has been draft-
ed, we keep an eye on his prog-
ress to see when he’s going to
play in the NHL. We talked a bit
about this in the rookie section,
but this is the time between
the draft and when we think
they’re ripe and ready to pluck.
Teams probably like to see
their draftees play major junior
because it most closely resem-
bles the NHL and helps Euro-
peans become acclimatized to
North America, but if the tal-
ent is there, it doesn’t matter
where they go.
Top players taken from the
USHL and USA Hockey’s Na-
tional Team Development Pro-
gram play somewhere else after
they’re drafted: major junior,
college or the NHL if they’re
good enough. Speaking of the
NTDP, the under-18 team pro-
βǦ
round picks this year, topping
their previous high of three.
Harkening to the introduc-
tion where we said hockey
poolies don’t care about politi-
cal correctness, we should note
NTDP players often have a dif-
β
games to the NHL. Not the top
guys, because it usually doesn’t
matter where they play, but for
the others, we should be wary
of some of the numbers and the
level of competition.
The NTDP plays a lot of weak
teams and doesn’t have any
problem running up the score,
pumping in 10-plus goals in
several games last year. If the
NTDP players tried that against
CHL teams, it wouldn’t work
out as well, but that’s not the
point. The point is some NTDP
members may be overvalued
and, without going into a full
analysis in this space, they fail
more often than we think.
So we can see that things
aren’t like they used to be and,
in the not-too-distant future,
they won’t be like they are
now. We may even grow to un-
derstand and care about those
multi-colored blobs.Nowadays, goalies are highly
trained at a young age, and
most have a similar style. Al-
most any goalie good enough to
play pro can get hot and go on a
run, as we saw with Hammond.
And any goalie can go cold, as
we also saw with Hammond.
Picking goalies is very much
about the team, but it’s also
about opportunity and his-
tory. The difference between a
sensation like Hammond, and
another sensation like we saw
in St. Louis’ Jordan Binning-
ton, is that Binnington had the
pedigree. He was good in ma-
jor junior and minor pro, post-
ing good stats along the way,
while Hammond’s track record
wasn’t nearly as impressive.
Of course, once they get
that opportunity, they have to
make good. Scott Darling, for
example, was handed the Caro-
lina starting job a couple years
back. He turned out to be a di-
saster, but there was nothing to
indicate that in advance.
Ideally, we want consistency
in a goalie, which can be tough
βǤǡǯ
hot more often than cold, which
is the way it’s always been.ANALYTICS
“Hey, look at this.”
“Look at what?”
“This multi-colored blob.”
“What does it mean?”
“What difference does it
make? This is hockey analytics.”
There’s a perception in some
quarters that if you don’t em-
brace hockey analytics, you’re a
dinosaur. But how about some
context, some explanation of
how it relates to the game,
some meaningful results, some-
thing that doesn’t make your
eyes glaze over.
Take any scout or seasoned
hockey observer and they can
tell you more about a player af-
ter watching one or two games
than you’ll ever get from some
multi-colored blob or an array
of numbers on a page. Take any
seasoned hockey poolie and
rest assured they’re not making
any decisions based on blobs.
It takes a long time for a stat
to become mainstream. Prob-
ably the only one we’ve seen in
a long time is save percentage.
It has meaning now because
we know what a good SP is and
what a poor SP is, but it took a
long time.
For Corsi, we know it’s good
if it’s above 50 percent and bad
if it’s below. But it’s only slightly
more meaningful than plus-mi-
nus, and it doesn’t mean pos-
session. Again, to hockey poo-
lies, it’s basically irrelevant.
The NHL team most noted
for its analytics use is Arizona,POWER PLAY
At one time the power play
was everything to the fantasy
player. Now? Not as much.
Power-play goals are way
down because power-play op-
portunities are down. There
used to be roughing penalties,
because players roughed all the
time. Nowadays, roughing is
something your dog does. Same
with the instigator penalty.
β
βǫ
Obstruction? Players have
learned. Don’t take penalties,
and you don’t give the other
team an opportunity to score.
If you look at this chart, pow-
er-play goals and opportunities
(average per team) are about
half what they were 30 years
ago, and they’re also down con-
siderably from 20 years ago.CASEY
CIZIKASand the Coyotes have made a lot
of moves, many of them ques-
tionable. Trade Dylan Strome?
Really? Did the analytics tell
them to do that? Hockey poo-
lies could’ve told you it usually
takes three or four years for a
player to break out.INJURIES
Injuries are viewed differ-
ently now, especially with in-
creased concussion awareness.
Mind you, conditioning meth-
ods are better, rehabilitation
from injuries is quicker, the
game is less violent, and play-
ers maintain better shape.
Consider that more than
twice as many players as 20
years ago played in every game.FOURTH LINES
Teams used to put their
sluggers on the fourth line and
played them as little as possible.
Now, the fourth line has legiti-
mate NHLers, whether they’re
energy guys, speedy penalty-
kill guys, or secondary scorers.
They have to be players.
They’re still not generally
ideal for your fantasy team
because they’re not projected
as high scorers, but they can
be nice surprise additions to
your team and can move up the
depth chart if needed. CaseyYEAR 82-GAME PLAYERS
1998-99 47
2018-19 106