ADWEEK 17
®
| AUGUST 26, 2019PREVIOUS PAGE: GETTY IMAGES
Entry No. 1:
Upfronts week
postmortem
The process of preparing for upfronts week—
the annual marketplace synonymous with TV
and video buying—begins on cold and dreary
days in February. Our teams gather for two days
of meetings to determine what our posture in
the market will be and, more important, what
we’re wanting to achieve for clients. Teams will
spend February, March and April developing
strategies from the information we’ve learned
in an effort to maximize our success when the
negotiations begin in earnest.
This work includes a good deal of effort
forecasting the marketplace, figuring out
what’s right for each individual client and
trying to ascertain where the dollars are going
to be. Pre-upfront recommendations to the
clients are made throughout this run-up to May
with the objective of gaining client comfort
and alignment on where their coveted dollars
will be spent. A lot is on the line for brands,
companies and the folks empowered to make
these decisions. Now is when dollar approvals
begin to be firmed up for the battles ahead.
Our agency likes to ask for at least a first look
at client budgets in April in an effort to lay out
our big board. But if I’m being honest, budgets
typically don’t get finalized and remain fluid
throughout our negotiations. It’s a living,
breathing puzzle, and eventually the pieces
move into place
How important is upfronts week?
The answer is: It varies by client. For more
than a decade, trade publications have written
bold headlines proclaiming “The Death of the
Upfront.” Ironically, I wish they were correct
back then! However, despite my cynicism, I
believe it’s important to look at the new shows
that have been greenlit. But I also appreciate
that most of the time it’s not an imperative
to what you’re buying. When there’s a truebreakout hit, then it’s important because
you’re going to want to have screened those
opportunities. But with some exceptions,
what’s more important (and what doesn’t
necessarily happen this week) is ensuring that
if you’re a prime-time buyer, you’re getting the
same quality and consistency that you’ve had
year over year
Personally, I find that the programming and
big showcase events become less important
each year. What remains very important is
that many clients come to New York and get
exposure to important media partners they
don’t see all year. Upfronts week offers the
chance for many client-agency or client-agency-
media partner meetings to occur—gatherings
where everybody is in the room together setting
some baselines for the coming weeks ahead.
So while I think the presentations are not that
important any longer, the week itself and the
time spent with clients and partners, when
used wisely, can set the tone for your upcoming
negotiations
This year, I enjoyed that there was no
bashing. Each media partner focused on their
own strengths and the direction they want to
go. But other than one exception, I think the
presentations are way too long! The other thing
I could not help but notice is the irony of living
in a world where we perpetually talk about data
and digital innovation, yet we still sit through
bloated television upfront presentations. Made
me chuckle.
Before I share how I think this year’s
upfront will unfold, we need to get some
market perspective. We’re coming off 10-plus
strong quarters of scatter. Couple that with the
continued ratings deterioration, and I certainly
think media partners believe they can achieve
high- to mid-double digit [CPM] increases. I
hope our side of the market does not feed into
the hype of that because, frankly, how can we
keep paying extraordinary prices for less and
less? I would like to see the market end up
similar to last year, which is not great, but at
least we could sell that. I do think that once
it gets started, it will go quicker than it has inthe last couple of years. There are definitely
conversations already going on, and we will
certainly move when the timing is right.Entry No. 2:
Early movement
and Discovery’s
big shift
Discovery just said it is going to join upfronts
week in 2020. My initial reaction is that this
is not good for us, since there’s already too
much going on that week! But I applaud them
for wanting to be seen with their peers Turner,
NBCU and Disney. Discovery is probably the
next largest in terms of share, and I suspect this
move is to get more senior agency and client
participation.
There seemed to be a good deal of movement
this week, ahead of Memorial Day weekend.
Typically, we get through Memorial Day with
maybe a smattering of early conversations
occurring. If you weren’t having formal
conversations, there was pressure to get a lot
more formalized. We know there was business
being written in a couple of places, so the train
is leaving the station.
Personally, I don’t know what the big rush is.
Most budgets aren’t solidified yet, so you’re still
flying blind from a client perspective. Folks on
the other side of the table will say, “Your clients’
budgets aren’t 100% solid any way, and that’s
why you have options—so it shouldn’t matter;
you should be able to go.”
Despite the early movement, we did not
finish business before the holiday weekend,
largely because the numbers being bandied
about are pretty high. I’ve heard mentions of
teens in prime, high-single digits in cable. We
were expecting a marketplace more similar
to last year, which was a bit below that. When
you hear those numbers, you’re not jumping to
write them right away.THE UPFRONTS ARE ONE OF TV’S GREAT MYSTERIES: They’re always the focus of the advertising year, but the negotiation process remains
hush-hush, with only a handful of people on both sides engaged in those high-level talks. That changed last year, when a major TV ad sales
exec agreed to (anonymously) take Adweek behind the scenes, compiling an upfront diary that highlighted each stage of their upfront
negotiations. This year, we got another behind-the-scenes peek, this time from the other side of the bargaining table, as a top TV buyer—
once again, anonymous—took Adweek through every step of their company’s talks. Here’s what this person had to say about the “insane”
upfront marketplace, where early movement, a “really dumb” response to higher-than-expected rates of change and the sudden exit of
WarnerMedia ad sales chief Donna Speciale affected this year’s negotiations.