Entry No. 3:
‘This is insane!’
Simply put, I’m very disappointed in my fellow
media buyers. The marketplace is much higher
than I think anybody had anticipated in terms
of rates of change. It feels very rushed, and
it started earlier than it should have, in my
estimation. I don’t understand why people
aren’t just sitting back and resisting or quite
frankly doing their jobs better. If that’s not
clear, then let me explain. Try to work some of
these numbers down for your clients! Earlier
in my career, if a market moved like this, the
reactions were akin to, “The numbers are
crazy, and we’re not doing this right now.”
Negotiations would stall, and the obligatory
articles about the upfront stalemates would be
written. I recall one year when we didn’t finish
until the end of August. I would have liked to
have seen more of a hard line from my fellow
colleagues in the business.
Ratings are down, but the ratings have been
down for the last three years and the market
has been, well, I don’t want to say “manageable,”
but it was something we could handle. But
this is insane! We haven’t seen numbers like
this in 10 years. I think this is really dumb and
shortsighted.
Nevertheless, most of the network stuff
is done, big cable is all submitted and nearly
everyone is talking. But what I cannot stand
about our marketplace is the coattail following
that occurs. I feel like media partners sit back,
wait for one group to do something and then
ride the wave. A media partner or two will come
out with a number, and everybody will wait to
see what that is. And then all of a sudden, people
go. Once that momentum starts, you can’t stop
that freight train. I’ve never seen anybody at
the end do better, because you won’t. If you’re
going to go first, you’re either setting the market
or you’re getting something for moving early.
There has not been a reward for sitting back and
waiting in a very long time. Now, maybe sitting
back and waiting is getting you something else
you may need, like an integration, but there’s no
benefit other than you simply want to annoy the
media partner. There’s no trophy for last place.Entry No. 4:
‘A dull acceptance’
I remain frustrated with the pace of the market
and what I believe was some poor decision
making. However, now there’s more of a dull
acceptance and just trying to trudge through
to the finish line. We have started to move
beyond the big five on to some of the pure-play
cable guys, looking at other options beyond
traditional players still in linear TV. But we are
starting our conversations with the OTT guys,
and we’re fully emerged in the marketplace at
this point.
As far as how typical negotiations go, it’s
different with every company. The way most
people operate is on a rate-of-change, inflation
basis. Unfortunately, it’s not deflation and then
the teams go and do the nitty-gritty. When you
get close to the end, you submit budgets. Most
people don’t even run plans anymore, unless
you’re new business and you need to set a base
or there’s something so crazy or different about
a particular client that you need to see a plan.
When a budget is submitted, it starts with
rates of change. Media partners offer numbers.
We go back with counteroffers. This volleying
continues for a little while. Then at the end,
there’s usually some horse trading. They have
needs that perhaps haven’t been fulfilled—for
instance, it’s going to be an election year, so there
are probably going to be a lot more avails in the
second half of the year, especially third quarter,
given the convention coverage. So there’s a little
bit of horse trading that you can use, if you have it
in your arsenal to eventually reach a number that
you and your clients can live with. Then you close,
and that’s when you start going through plans.I also want to be clear on what “closing”
means. We cannot commit our client’s dollars
until they sign off. Ultimately, it’s the client’s
decision if they approve of the recommendation
the agencies put in front of them, and that’s
usually done by the middle to the end of
September.Entry No. 5:
Cannes approaches
We’re pretty much finished with all the
broadcast and NFL negotiations. We’re also
well into cable at this point. I’d say we’re about a
week ahead of last year’s negotiations.
Certain folks in the industry will now be
heading to Cannes. But negotiations don’t stop,
even if you’re in the south of France. While
we’re talking about the back end, the people
who go to Cannes are typically management,
especially on the sales side. They are reachable.
Media-partner leadership, including Rita [Ferro
from Disney], Linda [Yaccarino from NBCU]
and Jo Ann [Ross from CBS], will attend as their
process is complete or nearing completion. This
is a time for them to see the creativity that finds
its way into their media units. But if somebody
needs them, they can reach them. Cannes does
not stop upfront progress.Entry No. 6:
Post-Cannes,
time to ‘story tell’
the upfront
Cannes is now over. The rosé bottles are empty,
and traffic around the Gutter Bar has returned
to normal. Since the market started earlier,
there is no negotiating occurring in Cannes for
the most part. We’re waiting on a handful of
clients and also have a couple of syndicators left,
but that’s pretty much it.
At this point, we begin to “story tell”
the upfront. We develop presentations for
individual clients that provide a comprehensive
review of how this year’s marketplace turned SPECIALE: MIKE COPPOLA/GETTY IMAGES FOR WARNERMEDIA; NBCUNIVERSAL UPFRONT EVENT: COURTESY OF NBCUNIVERSAL‘WE HAVEN’T SEEN NUMBERS
LIKE THIS IN 10 YEARS.
I THINK THIS IS REALLY DUMB.’
AUGUST 26, 2019 |^ ADWEEK
®
18
NBCUniversal’s upfront event isn’t as
important to buyers as the agency-
client meetings during that week.
Discovery ad sales chief
Jon Steinlauf is moving his
company’s presentation to
upfronts week in 2020.