Financial Times Europe - 22.08.2019

2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 22 August 2019

INTERNATIONAL

JUDE WEBBER— MEXICO CITY

Mexican producers have reached a deal with the US to halt an anti-dumping investigation that had led to the impo- sition of 17.5 per cent duties on tomatoes, resolving a spat between the two trading partners.

Mexico’s economy ministry, which oversees foreign trade, said the deal would come into force on September 19. It had been “indispensable” to reach a new deal to avoid damage to a vital export sector and a knock-on effect on jobs, the ministry said in a statement. The US commerce department said the deal “exemplifies the Trump Administration’s priority of enforcing our trade laws, while ensuring that trade agreements are fair, reciprocal, and benefit American farmers, workers, businesses, and consumers”. Mexico supplies half the tomatoes eaten in the US and is the largest exporter of the fruit. Facing pressure from Florida growers and Republicans in the state, the US Department of Com-

merce resurrected a dormant anti- dumping investigation and imposed duties Mexico said would impose costs of $350m a year on the $2bn industry. The Trump administration had tem- porarily imposed duties on Mexican steel and aluminium and threatened to slap tariffs on all Mexican exports to the US unless it curbed illegal immigration. In February, the US announced it would impose tomato duties that had been on ice for more than two decades unless a deal were reached by May. That proved impossible — Mexico’s deputy economy minister, Luz María de la Mora, told the FT at the time agreeing a reference price had been the stum- bling block. In the 1980s, Americans ate only 5.5kg of tomatoes a head a year. But with greater availability from Mexico, that rose to 10kg by 2017, according to Ms de la Mora. The draft agreement sets new reference prices for tomatoes and included an inspection mechanism to prevent the importation of low quality tomatoes.

GUY CHAZAN— BERLIN VICTOR MALLET— PARIS

German chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday expressed hope Britain and the EU can “find a solution in the next 30 days” on the vexed issue of the Irish border that would prevent a no-deal Brexit.

But ahead of talks with UK prime minister Boris Johnson in Berlin, Ms Merkel made clear it was up to Britain to come up with a solution. “It’s not up to a German chancellor” to sort out the situation on the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, she added. Separately, a senior French government official said the most likely outcome was that the UK would leave the EU without an agreement on Octo- ber 31. But Mr Johnson expressed confidence that a deal could be done on his first trip to an EU capital as prime minister. He said in Berlin that he had watched a lot of EU negotiations, and “in my experience, people [always] find a way forward”. He added: “It’s in the final fur- long... that the winning deal appears.” But Mr Johnson was adamant that the backstop, the provision in the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the EU to avoid a hard Irish border, had to be removed. “If we can do that, we can move ahead,” he said. “There is ample scope to do a deal.” He even added the German line “wir schaffen das” (“we can do it”). The Ger- man chancellor used the phrase at the height of the country’s refugee crisis in 2015. Mr Johnson reiterated his objection that the backstop locked the UK into regulatory and trading arrangements with the EU “without the UK having any say”. Ms Merkel said the backstop was purely a “place-holder” or “insurance policy” and as soon as the situation on the border was resolved “it would no longer be necessary”. Mr Johnson emphasised the option of “alternative arrangements” to the backstop to avoid a hard Irish border, without spelling them out. He said the UK would “under no circumstances” implement customs checks on the Irish border, adding there were “ways of protecting the integrity of the EU single market” without such arrangements. Ahead of his arrival in Berlin, Mr Johnson was met with scepticism in the German capital, where politicians ques- tioned whether fresh Brexit talks would achieve anything. There was widespread dismay in Ger- many at the letter Mr Johnson sent this week to the EU, in which he insisted on the removal of the backstop from the withdrawal agreement. Norbert Röttgen, head of the Bun- destag’s foreign affairs committee, said Mr Johnson’s trip was aimed at a UK audience. “It will be part of the inevitable blame game,” he said. “He has to show voters that he tried everything, so he can then accuse the EU of intransigence and an unwillingness to negotiate.” Mr Johnson is due to hold talks in Paris with President Emmanuel Macron today.

Brexit

Merkel says

she hopes EU

and UK can

strike deal in

next 30 days

Anti-dumping deal

Mexico satisfied after tomato

trade spat with US squashed

AIME WILLIAMS— WASHINGTON

The Trump administration has unveiled plans to scrap the 20-day limit on detaining migrant families entering the US illegally, instead allowing them to be detained indefinitely.

The move comes as the debate over immigration and border control tops the political agenda. Lawmakers have been raising con- cerns over the conditions of children kept at border facilities inside the US for months, as authorities struggle to keep up with the surge of migrants who have attempted to cross into the US, many of them women, children and families. Currently, a decades-old court agreement known as the Flores settlement imposes a 20-day limit on holding families in migrant detention centres, which President Donald Trump has com- plained leads to a “catch and release” of migrants crossing the US border. The White House has pressed the Department of Homeland Security to

scrap the agreement for more than a year. In a statement yesterday, the White House said it would issue a new rule seeking to terminate the agreement, calling it “outdated” and saying that it failed to take account of the “massive shift in illegal immigration to families and minors from Central America”. Kevin McAleenan, acting secretary of homeland security, said the rule change would allow his department to hold families together and ensure that all children in US government custody are treated with dignity, respect, and spe- cial concern for their particular vulner- ability. Mr Trump said the change would close “a loophole” and “protect these children from abuse”. Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the Senate, said the change would let the government “keep children in awful conditions for longer periods of time, and continue the administration’s hor- rid treatment of innocent migrant families feeling unthinkable hardship”.

Border facilities

White House aims to hold

illegal migrants indefinitely

JAMES POLITI— WASHINGTON

The US budget deficit was set to rise to $960bn this year, or 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product, on the back of lower- than-expected tax revenues, said the Congressional Budget Office in a dire assessment of the fiscal position from the non-partisan agency. As well as the increase in this year’s deficit, the CBO warned over the next decade US deficits would be $809bn

larger than forecast, after US president Donald Trump and congressional Dem- ocrats struck a spending deal last month that was only partially offset by lower- than-expected interest payments. Phillip Swagel, CBO director, said that the US fiscal outlook was “challenging” with debt on an “unsustainable course”. “Lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies — making revenues larger than they would be under current law, reducing spending below projected amounts or adopting some combination of both approaches,” he said. The deterioration in the fiscal outlook has been driven by the budget deal en-

acted by Mr Trump, after heated negotiations with Nancy Pelosi, the Demo- cratic Speaker of the House. While it brought relief to markets by averting an imminent crisis over the US borrowing limit, it will increase deficits by $1.7tn over the next 10 years, the CBO warned. Other new factors increasing deficits by about $600bn over the next decade,

compared with the CBO’s latest estimate in May, included additional spending for border security and disaster relief. YYYet the ballooning US deficits will beet the ballooning US deficits will be contained by projections of lower interest payments that could save the government an estimated $1.4tn over the next 10 years, it indicated. The CBO maintained its forecast of 2. per cent growth in 2019 against its ear- lier projection, and is not predicting the economy will slide into recession, although growth is pegged at a yearly average of 1.8 per cent between 2020 and 2023. The CBO said the tariffs imposed by Mr Trump on imports would deliver a

0.3 per cent hit to US GDP by next year. The CBO report comes as Mr Trump is considering new fiscal stimulus measures that would further add to deficits in the form of tax cuts to shield the economy from a possible downturn as he heads into his bid for re-election. But the lower-than-expected tax revenues, on the individual and corporate side this year, defied the Trump administration’s claims dating to the tax cut package of 2017, that tax relief pays for itself through higher growth. In May, the CBO had predicted a deficit for this year of $896bn, or 4.2 per cent of GDP. Janan Ganeshpage 9

Fiscal outlook

US budget office warns on rising deficit

CBO director tells

politicians debt is on ‘unsustainable course’

BRENDAN GREELEY— WASHINGTON

Theworld’s monetary policymakers, who today arrive in Jackson Hole, Wyo- ming for their annual summer gathering, have two problems on their minds. One they have known about for a while: despite dropping rates, in some cases below zero, central banks in developed economies still cannot meet their inflation targets. The other problem is new: the uncertainty of trade talks is starting to weigh on growth, even in America. Central bankers are becoming increasingly uncertain about their tools, but may have to use them soon anyway. “I would say this is probably the most interesting environment for central bankers since the crisis,” said Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, now at the Chicago Booth School of Business. The Kansas City Fed’s yearly confer-

ence on monetary policy has become a key moment for investors and politicians, who have in recent years come to expect major policy announcements. Jay Powell, US Federal Reserve chairman, will in particular be closely watched when he speaks tomorrow. Since the financial crisis, the chairman’s speech at the Jackson Lake Lodge has often been used to roll out new policies. So investors will expect to hear something big fffrom him.rom him. In June, Mr Powell pointed out that the Fed’s rate, then at 2.5 per cent, was already close to zero, leaving little room to make a difference in the next downturn. This proximity was “the pre-emi- nent monetary policy challenge of our time”, he said. The Fed is not alone. Since the financial crisis, central banks in other developed economies have dropped short- term interest rates; many are below zero. They have also bought bonds to try to drag long-term interest rates down, a tactic that was once considered a heresy. But after a decade of accommodative policies, central banks have failed to meet their inflation targets, and now are

left with low or negative interest rates. “The question is, if you did 2 percent- age points of easing, is that going to give you much oomph,” said James Stock, a political economist at Harvard. “We don’t doubt it’ll work... it’s just not going to be that potent.” As a result, economists are on the hunt for alternative measures.

Some former policymakers have pro- posed that governments of developed economies should have clearly defined fiscal spending projects ready for a downturn, paid for with debt bought by their central bank — a radical sugges- tion. Jean Boivin, former deputy gover- nor of the Bank of Canada, now head of research for the BlackRock Investment Institute, co-authored the paper with Stanley Fischer and Philipp Hildebrand. “It’s difficult to envision stimulus in

the next recession coming from pushing yields a lot lower than they already are,” he said. Randall Kroszner, a former Fed gover- nor, said central bankers were searching for a “shock and awe strategy... to make sure markets realise they’re seri- ous, and that they are going to have an impact”, yet the concern that market expectations cannot be changed would “haunt” attendees at Jackson Hole. Yet what in June was an academic question about tools has become, in August, a policy question of when to use them. Fitch Ratings has found more than a third of central banks have eased in the past six months, the most abrupt shift since 2009. Growth has slowed in China and collapsed in Germany. In the US, trade talks have started to wear on manufacturing. Markets, expecting fresh stimulus, have lurched recently. But Mr Powell’s dilemma is that the US data are not as bad as that for Eur- ope. Industrial output has slowed but is not shrinking. Unemployment remains at levels not seen since the late 1960s and US consumers continue to spend. This leaves Mr Powell without a clear

mandate to ease policy. As such, Mr Rajan said he expected no big announcements. The Fed has been “fairly clear that there’s a lot of uncertainty on the efficacy of the tools”, he said. “It’s not clear to me that there’s a lot of additional enlightenment we can get at this point.” In its latest survey of consumers, the University of Michigan asked about the Fed’s July rate cut, which Mr Powell explained as “insurance” against trade risks. Consumers answered that a cut was a sign of a recession. Perversely, bond price movements showed that investors did not believe the Fed had committed to easing policy. Ellen Zentner, chief US economist for Morgan Stanley, said the Fed might pay a price for its open conversations about policy options. “The market sees the Fed showing them their hand,” she said. “You run the risk of showing the market there is very little you can do.” Mr Powell is looking at ambiguous sig- nals. Investors think he is unclear. He will be expected to say something. His biggest problem may be he has been too honest about the Fed’s limitations. Opinionpage 9

Jackson Hole.Monetary policy

Central bankers seek fresh tools to tackle slowdown

Low or negative rates trigger

hunt for new stimulus measures

at annual policymaker gathering

Police detain protesters demonstrating in Istanbul against the replacement of Kurdish mayors in the cities of Diyarbakir, Mardin and Van with state officials. One news agency said at least 30 people were yesterday held in Diyarbakir. Others reported the use of water cannons to disperse crowds. Ankara removed the mayors over alleged links to Kurdish militants, amid claims that the policy was an attack on democracy and an attempt to silence and intimidate its opponents. The mayors are members of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party and were suspended over alleged ties to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party.

Kurdish ties

Protesters

held in Turkey

Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty

‘Y‘Y‘You run the risk ofou run the risk of

showing the market there is very little you can do’

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

‘Lawmakers will have to

make significant changes to tax and spending policies’

Phillip Swagel, CBO

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VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS
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VK.COM/WSNWS
FinancialFinancial TimeTimeFinancialFinancial TimeTimeFinancialFinancial TimeTimeFinancialFinancial TimeTimeTimeTimeTimeTime
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VK.COM/WSNWS
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VK.COM/WSNWS
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(^288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821288212882128821) VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS VK.COM/WSNWS
TELEGRAM: TELEGRAM:
ermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermont
TELEGRAM:
ermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermont
TELEGRAM:
ermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermont: : : :
TELEGRAM:
ermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermont: : : : : : : :
TELEGRAM:
ermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermontermont: : : :
,, Coslada,Coslada,
TELEGRAM:
,, Coslada,Coslada,AM
TELEGRAM:
AMAM
TELEGRAM:
Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberAM
TELEGRAM:
Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberCoslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit Number
TELEGRAM:
,, Coslada,Coslada,,, Coslada,Coslada,Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberCoslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit Number
TELEGRAM:
,, Coslada,Coslada,,, Coslada,Coslada,Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberCoslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberAMAM
TELEGRAM:
Coslada, Madrid. Legal Deposit NumberAMAM
TELEGRAM: TELEGRAM: TELEGRAM: TELEGRAM:
t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws
ws
t.me/whatsnws
wsws
t.me/whatsnws
wsLimited; Rappresentante e
t.me/whatsnws
wswsLimited; Rappresentante eLimited; Rappresentante e
t.me/whatsnws
wswswswswswsLimited; Rappresentante eLimitLimitLimited; Rappresentante eLimitLimit
t.me/whatsnws
wswswswswswswswsLimitLimitLimitLimitLimitLimitLimited; Rappresentante eLimited; Rappresentante eLimitLimit
t.me/whatsnws
wswswswsLimitLimitLimited; Rappresentante eLimitLimit
sn
t.me/whatsnws
sn
t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws
22 20020022 20020022 20020022 200200 200200200200
t.me/whatsnws
22 20020022 20020022 20020022 200200 200200200200
333333333333
t.me/whatsnws
33333333333353535353
t.me/whatsnws
53535353
CBCB MilanoMilanoCBCB MilanoMilanoCBCB MilanoMilanoCBCB MilanoMilanoCBCB MilanoMilanoCBCB MilanoMilanot.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws t.me/whatsnws Milano.Milano.

Financial Times Europe - 22.08.2019

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