Financial Times Europe - 22.08.2019

4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday22 August 2019

INTERNATIONAL

AMY KAZMIN— NEW DELHI Indian prime minister Narendra Modi is known for his love of seemingly simple yet breathtakingly ambitious schemes to transform the country, most notably his 2016 decision to cancel most of the country’s circulating cash in a bid to purge illicit assets from the economy. But after his landslide re-election, Mr Modi has moved to utilise his enhanced political capitalon his next big idea: overhauling India’sdemocratic system to reduce the frequency of elections. It is a complex and controversial idea that critics say could undermine India’s democracy. Mr Modi believes India’s almost per- petual politicking for a seemingly end- less sequence of state elections distracts politicians from tackling the challenges of economicdevelopment, and impedes the tough decisions needed for progress. He is pushing for India to synchronise its national parliamentary elections with all its state legislative assembly polls. It is a goal he has dubbed“one nation, one election”. “There is a feeling in the country that many of the more difficult decisions are often put in abeyance because there is some election or another every year,”

said Swapan Dasgupta, a member of parliament close to Mr Modi. “When there are tough decisions that require short-term pain but may give long-term benefits, the political class doesn’t have the will to take them.” In a speech laying out the new government’s agenda, India president Ram Nath Kovind said finding a way to con- duct simultaneous elections was “the need of the hour”, and would facilitate “accelerated development” — making clear that such a political overhaul was a priority. The government has also claimed it would be more cost-effective. But ensuring simultaneous elections —putting polls on a fixed schedule — will be a complicated task requiring big legal, and possibly constitutional, changes. At present, parliament and any single-state legislature can be dissolved before the expiry of their terms to pave the way for fresh elections if sta- ble governments cannot be formed. Mr Modi’s rivals, and many analysts, saysynchronising political cycles would be anti-democratic and would run against India’s fundamental constitutional principles as a federal system with powerful state governments accountable to their own electorate. The recent demotion of Jammu and Kashmirfrom a full-fledged state to a union territory more firmly under New Delhi’s control has further heightened concerns about Mr Modi’s commitment to a system of strong states.

The idea raises questions about whether a state legislature in which no government can be formed would spend a protracted period under New Delhi’s direct control, known as “president’s rule”. There is little clarity about what would happen if no government could be formed in a fractured parliament. “I don’t see how you could mandate a single date for central and state polls without cutting into democracy,” said Kanchan Chandra, a professor of poli- tics at New York University. Mr Modi’s rivals also believe his ruling

Bharatiya Janata party, the biggest and wealthiest political party, would be best placed to benefit from simultaneous polls, while parties withfewer resources would be seriously disadvantaged. “If the election is simultaneous, there is a lower likelihood of people express- ing one preference at the national level, and another preference at the regional level,” Ms Chandra said, adding the plan revealed BJP’s “centralising tendencies”. Parliament member Asaduddin Owaisi, president of the Hyderabad- based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Mus- limeen, a mostly Muslim party, said:

“One nation, one election will mean the destruction of regional parties,” which he said “occupy an important space in our multi-party system”. In a letter to the law commission, Mr Owaisiwrote that “constitutional principles of collective responsibility and legislative oversight over the executive cannot be sacrificed at the altar of effi- ciency and stability”. Polls for India’s parliament and all its state legislative assemblies were con- ducted simultaneously for the first 20 years after India’s independence. But with the decline of the once dominant Congress party and emergence of stronger rivals, voters started to deliver more fragmented electoral mandates, resulting in greater political instability. If fragile national or state governments fell — and no new administration could be formed from the existing legis- latures — election authorities simply dissolved those legislative bodies before the expiry of their five-year tenures and called new elections. Over time, that has resulted in a political calendar with no fixed schedule. While Mr Modi has appointed a panel to study the feasibility of simultaneous polls, nothing is likely to happen soon. “The difficulties are considerable,” Mr Dasgupta said. “It’s a very long process, not something that can be achieved instantly. It will require a considerable amount of debate and consensus.” See Markets Insight

India.Simultaneous polls

Modi attacked over plan to overhaul elections

Narendra Modi: wants India to synchronise its national elections with all its state assembly polls

Prime minister accused of

seeking to centralise power

and undermine democracy

AIME WILLIAMS— WASHINGTON

A top Pentagon official has warned that China’sefforts to gain influence in the Middle East could undermine defence co-operation between the US and allies that grow too close to Beijing. Defence officials worry about China’s “desire to erode US military advan- tages” in the Middle East, Michael Mul- roy, the leading Pentagon official for the region, told the FT. He said Beijing could

use investments there for “economic leverage and coercion” and “intellectual property theft and acquisition”. “Many investments are beneficial but we’re concerned countries’ economic interests may blind them to the negative implications of some Chinese investments, including impact on joint defence co-operation with the United States,” said Mr Mulroy. Beijing has long been investing in Middle Eastern countries through its $1tn Belt and Road infrastructure pro- gramme, through which it aims to finance roads, ports and power stations in some of the world’s poorest areas. Chinese companies are also competing

with the US to sell weapons to Middle Eastern countries, says the Pentagon. China is one of the biggest trading partners of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and has also forged close ties with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. As part of its push into the Middle East, Chinese companies have built ports in Israel, and invested in oil and petrochemical complexes in Saudi Ara- bia.Sinopec, the Chinese oil company, has several joint projects with Saudi state energy giantSaudi Aramco, including a large refinery in Yanbu. The Suez Canal Economic Zone, launched by Egypt in 2015 to create an industrial and logistics hub around the

Suez Canal, is another key Chinese investment. The canal is a vital shipping route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, hostsa Chinese naval base whileChina Mer- chants Port Holdings, a part state- owned enterprise, is negotiating to take control of the Doraleh Container Termi- nal in Djibouti, one of the most strategi- cally located ports in the Middle East. Lisa Blaydes, professor of political sci- ence at Stanford University, said China had also sought to increase its investment in the reconstruction of Syria, at a time when political instability had deterred other investors. “Chinese will-

ingness to bring development dollars to countries emerging from conflict could give Beijing an upper hand in terms of regional influence,” she said. “Yemen, with its strategic location along Gulf shipping lanes, provides a future potential Chinese target.” Mr Mulroy said that although the US was committed to helping regional partners “fight terrorism” and “promote stability”, it was prepared to make “hard decisions” to protect US technology. Jon Alterman, Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and Interna- tional Studies, said the US and China saw the Middle East differently. China did not want to “replace” the US.

Diplomacy

Pentagon warns on China’s Mideast sway

Pursuing investment from

Beijing imperils defence links, says top official

RICHARD MILNE NORDIC AND BALTIC CORRESPONDENT

For all the apparent absurdity of Donald Trump cancelling a statevisit to Den- markbecause it refused to sell him Greenland, the spat has exposed a deep- seated anxiety inCopenhagen. Danish politicians yesterday expressed their anger that a close ally could call off a visit so abruptly — and for such an inconsequential reason, describing it as“disrespectful”, “smug” and “deeply insulting”. Many in Copenhagen had been inclined to dismiss US interest in the world’s largest island as little more than a joke. But the US president’s offer to buy the island had, as so often with his seemingly outlandish comments, hit a nerve in Copenhagen, said Klaus Dodds, professor of geopolitics at Royal Hollo- way, University of London. “Denmark doesn’t quite know what to do with Greenland. They genuinely do have a dilemma on their hands. Some- body has told Trump that if the Danes aren’t going to take Greenland seriously then there’s a chance for us,”he said. Copenhagen faces a number of difficult questions about its relationship withGreenlandand its strategy in the Arctic, and how to combat Chinese and Russian interest in the far north. Greenland’s relationship to Denmark has long been strained. The island of 56,000 people, which is closer to Wash- ington than Copenhagen, is self-govern- ing in most regards. But it relies on Den- mark for foreign affairs and security as well as a DKr3.6bn ($536m) annual grant that accounts for two-thirds of the national budget. Scandals, such as the cover-up of radi- ation from a nuclear crash near a US air base in the north and the treatment of Inuits, have tested ties with Copenha- gen, fuelling the independence move- ment that enjoys strong support. Denmark has also seemed slow to

grasp the geopolitical significance of Greenland and the Arctic. Russia has been raising its military presence in the far north but it is China that has been clearest in its designs on Greenland. The island wooed Chinese investors to develop three airports and allow better links to the US and Europe, after Copen- hagen appeared reluctant to step in. It was only after it came under intense pressure from the USthat Denmark finally intervened last year to offer financing and force out the Chinese. US officials admit worries about Chi- nese and Russian activity underpin both their more aggressive approach to the Arctic and the potential for a US bid for Greenland. “This is an eye-opener for Denmark as to the importance of Green- land,” said Uffe Jakobsen, a professor at the University of Greenland. Mette Frederiksen, who became Den-

mark’s prime minister only two months ago, is now facing an early andsevere test of her diplomatic skills. Yesterday she sought to strike a balance. She stressed her irritation at Mr Trump’s sudden cancellation of a state visit after an invitation from the Danish queen and her insistence that Green- land was not for sale. But she also reiter- ated that Denmark was keen to co-oper- ate more with the US in the Arctic. Prof Jakobsen said Greenland “is the ticket for Denmark’s participation” in the scramble for the Arctic. The Danes have submitted a claim for the North Pole based solely on Greenland. Mr Trump said Ms Frederiksen’s remark that his interest in buying Greenland was absurd was not “a very nice way of saying something”. He added: “You don’t talk to the US that way.” Some believe Greenland itself could

try to exploit the situation, using Mr Trump’s interest to raise the pressure on Copenhagen in talks on greater auton- omy or even independence.“Every time somebody comes to Denmark and says they want to do something with Green- land, it has a positive effect for Green- land in negotiations,” said Aaja Larsen, one of Greenland’s two MPs in Den- mark’s parliament. For now, Mr Trump’s botched attempt at a purchase seems to have unified Danish politicians in outrage and scorn. But they now have to find a way to deal with what Prof Dodds described as “a re-enchantment with the Arctic” by the US after decades of neglect. A senior Danish official said wryly: “It’s almost funny that we wanted them to be more involved in the Arctic for ages and then they did this.” Notebookpage 8

Sale spat.Strained relations

Trump’s Greenland interest hits nerve in Denmark

Copenhagen faces difficult

questions about ties to island

and its strategy in the Arctic

Irritation: Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen talks to the media yesterday in Copenhagen about Greenland Mads Claus Rasmussen/ Ritzau Scanpix/Reuters

‘Denmark doesn’t

quite know what to do

with Greenland.

They genuinely

do have a

dilemma on their hands’

JAMIE SMYTH— SYDNEY

Cardinal George Pell lost a court appeal against his conviction for child sex abuse yesterday, marking the latest chapter in a case that has plunged the Catholic Church into crisis and divided public opinion in Australia.

Pell, formerly an aide to Pope Francis and the Vatican’s ex-finance chief, is the most senior official in the Catholic Church to have been convictedof child sex abuse. The Victorian Court of Appeal dis- missed the appeal by the 78-year-old and said he would continue to serve his six-year jail sentence related to his con- victionfor abusing two choirboys at St Patrick’s church in Melbourne. The ruling was a two-to-one majority decided by a three-judge panel, with the third judge dissenting from the majority verdict. Under Australian law, the majority ruling is binding. Chief Justice Anne Ferguson said it was open to the jury to be satisfied beyond reasonable doubt that Pell was guilty of the offences charged. “We decided there was nothing about the complainant’s evidence that meant the jury must have had a doubt about the complainant’s account. It is not enough that the jury might have had a doubt, but they must have had a doubt,” she said. “This was a compelling wit-

ness, clearly not a liar, not a fantasist and was a witness of truth.” Justice Ferguson noted that the case had divided Australian society, with the cardinal publicly vilified by some and strongly supported by others. The rulingis unlikely to bring the case to a close, with Pell’s lawyerslikely to appeal to the High Court. Pell was convicted by a jury in Decem- ber of sexually abusing two choirboys when he was archbishop of Melbourne in 1996. The court found Pell guilty on one count of sexual penetration of a child under 16 years of age and four counts of committing an indecent act with or in the presence of a child. In March, he was sentenced to six years in prison by Peter Kidd, chief justice of Victoria’s county court, who told the court that Pell had shown callous indifference to the distress of his 13- year-old victims during “brazen and forceful attacks” on them. Pell’s legal team appealed against the verdict on the grounds that the jury’s verdict was unreasonable, laying out 13 reasons, including an alibi, why they believed it was impossible the abuse had taken place. They also argued that there were errors of law made during the trial. The dismissal of Pell’s appealhas implications for the Vatican, which is also investigating the case. It will face renewed pressure to defrock Pell.

Catholic Church

Australian cardinal loses

appeal over child sex abuse

PRIMROSE RIORDAN— HONG KONG

Australia will become one of the few countries to join a US-led naval coalition to protect shipping in the Gulf, where tensions have mounted after Iran seizedaBritish-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last month.

Australian primeminister Scott Morri- son announced the decisionyesterday aspressure builds in the region with US secretary of state Mike Pompeo warning that any country that allows a separate, recently released Iranian tankerto dock could face US sanctions. Thetanker was previously detained by Britain, which claimed it was suspected of delivering Iranian crude oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions, infuriating Tehran. The US and the UK, which is also involved in the coalition, have been struggling topersuade partners and allies to join the effort to police the Gulf. Bahrain has agreed to participate,but Germany late last month rebuffed a for- mal Washington requestfor support, while New Zealand said it did not have anyavailable ships or planes so could not provide assistance. Analysts criticised Australia’s move, arguing the country should instead be building its presence in the Asia-Pacific, where China is extending its military activities. “It’s disappointing to see Scott Morrison agree to send Australian forces to an entirely avoidable engage- ment in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ashley Townshend, director of foreign policy and defence at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. “While we have clear interests in freedom of navigation, this crisis is one of [US president Donald] Trump’s making. Diplomacy, not a greater military presence, is the solution.” Mr Morrison said Australia would contribute defence planning and opera- tions staff to the coalition, aP-8 Posei- don surveillance aircraft and a Royal Australian Navy frigate, in an expansion of the ship’s existing role countering piracy and terrorism in the region. “The government has been concerned over incidents in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the past few months. This is a threat to our interests and ensuring global trading lanes,” Mr Morrison said. Mr Morrison said 15 to 16 per cent of crude oil and 25 to 30 per cent of refined oil destined for Australia transited through the Gulf. Successive Australian governments have been criticised for not complying with International Energy Agency fuel stockpile mandates, a failure that defence experts argue would leave the country vulnerable in a big international conflict. While the IEA mandates that countries hold a stock in reserve “equivalent to 90 days of net imports”, Australia is the only country that does not meet the standard and has just 59 days of import coverage, according to a May update published by the agency.

Iran tensions

Canberra joins

US-led naval

task force to

protect Gulf

shipping lanes

                     

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Financial Times Europe - 22.08.2019

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