The Daily Telegraph - 22.08.2019

Politics

HS2 could be

scrapped as

Government

orders review

By Harry Yorke

Political corresPondent

HS2 could be scrapped, the Govern-

ment suggested yesterday, as it

launched an independent review into

the future of the controversial £56 bil-

lion railway project.

The review, which will consider

whether the line should be scaled back

or scrapped, comes just days after sen-

ior Downing Street aides discussed

mothballing the project before a poten-

tial snap election.

Last night, Conservative MPs wel-

comed the announcement and claimed

that scrapping HS2 would hand Mr

Johnson a boost in key marginal seats

should he choose to go to the country.

They included David Davis, the for-

mer Brexit secretary, who said that “de-

railing this runaway disaster” would be

“a vote winner in any potential general

election campaign”.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph to-

day, Mr Davis claims HS2 is a “singu-

larly unpopular policy in constituencies

across the UK” and that shelving it

would free up billions of pounds for

regional infrastructure projects.

First proposed by the last Labour

government in 2009, HS2 has long

been opposed by dozens of Conserva-

tive MPs and continues to divide opin-

ion among the public.

If completed, the railway line would

run through the constituencies of 26

sitting Tory MPs, including Uxbridge

and South Ruislip – Mr Johnson’s seat.

Last night, a former Cabinet minister

said: “HS2 is a white elephant ... a La-

bour vanity project. It runs through a

lot of Tory seats. I imagine everything

the Government does at the moment

will be calculated according to an im-

minent general election.

“There is a strong political case for

scrapping it. It would certainly help to

send out a couple of dozen Tory MPs

who are able to say ‘we’ve delivered’.”

Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s

chief strategist, raised HS2 during a

meeting with Government special ad-

visers last week. According to White-

hall sources, Mr Cummings mentioned

the project on Friday during a discus-

sion on wasteful policies that could be

scrapped before a potential election.

One insider told The Telegraph that

while they had originally considered

his remarks to be a “joke”, the launch of

the review suggested No 10 was taking

the prospect more seriously.

Mr Johnson refused to commit to

Panel of experts to assess

future of the rail project

as MPs tell Johnson

dropping it will win votes

2012

2018

2016

2014

An expensive journey, with few still all aboard

January 2009

The Labour government

announces a third runway at

Heathrow and the formation

of HS2 Ltd to develop

proposals for the high-speed

rail project.

December 2009

Lines north of Birmingham to

Manchester and Leeds are

added to the plans.

March 2010

A route through the Chilterns

is unveiled, causing outrage

from local residents. The

project is costed at £17.4bn

for the London-Birmingham

section and £30bn in total.

December 2010

David Cameron’s government

drops Heathrow third runway

and HS2 spur but commits to

the HS2 “Y network,” with a

core route from London to

the West Midlands. The

environmental justification is

dropped. The cost is now

£33 billion.

January 2012

Go-ahead for the project is

justified by claims that HS

will “create a million jobs,” a

claim described as “outland-

ish” by experts.

January 2013

Detailed maps are published

showing the exact route of

phase 1, London-Birming-

ham. Legal actions follow,

but are dismissed.

June 2013

Cost rises to £42.6 billion.

Peter Mandelson, one of the

original architects of the

project, calls it an

“expensive mistake”.

November 2013

Parliamentary Bill to build

the London-Birmingham

section is introduced. The bill

and supporting documents

run to 53,000 pages. The

justification for the scheme is

changed from speed to the

need to increase capacity.

January 2014

David Higgins, former

Olympic and Network

Rail chief, is brought in

to control the project

and cut costs.

November 2014

HS2 forced to scrap plans to

rebuild Euston as its London

terminus. A plan for

part-rebuilding, taking

16 years, is later unveiled.

November 2015

Cost rises to £55.7 billion.

The Government says the new

figure is an adjustment for

inflation. HS2 misses a

deadline for announcing the

route north of Birmingham.

March 2016

Research commissioned by

HS2 reveals that the track

could break up and trains

derail at the speeds proposed,

the highest of any convention-

al rail service in the world.

HS2 Bill passes the Commons

and enters the Lords.

May 2016

HS2 admits that “nothing

is ruled out” in a

cost-cutting exercise. One

option considered is to

delay or abandon line to

Manchester and build only

as far as Crewe.

July 2016

Theresa May becomes Prime

Minister. Incoming Transport

Secretary Chris Grayling vows

HS2 will still go ahead,

despite the change in

government.

February 20 17

A Bill enabling Phase One of

HS2 is given royal assent

after being approved by

Parliament. Work is expected

to start within weeks

December 2018

Sir Terry Morgan resigns as

chairman of HS2 Ltd just

months after being appointed

by Chris Grayling amid

mounting questions over

delays and growing costs.

March 2019

Ministers delay signing off

on the first half of

spending for HS2 due to

concerns over costs.

June 2019

Boris Johnson tells a meeting

of Conservative Party

association chairmen during

the Tory leadership election

that he has drawn up plans to

hold an independent review

into HS2. He asks former

chairman of HS2 Ltd Douglas

Oakervee to lead it.

August 2019

Boris Johnson’s new

government ditches the

official £56bn price tag for

HS2 after he said the final

cost could double.

21 August 2019

The Government launches an

independent review into

whether the project should

be scrapped or scaled back.

2013

2015

2019

2009 2010

June 2007

Greengauge 21, an industry

lobby group, proposes a

high-speed line between

London and Birmingham,

largely running alongside

existing lines. The cost is

given as £7.1 billion (£11bn

with a spur to Heathrow.)

2010 costing

£33bn

14 January 2012

“I am not viscerally hostile. I am a passionate

supporter of HS2 in principle, but it has to be

right for London. And there are important

aspects of HS2 which are not right.

• Mr Johnson as Mayor of London

£7.1bn

2007 costing

hes an

to

hould

back.

2013 costing

£42.6bn

original arch

project, calls

“expensive m

October 2018

“There are projects we should have on

transport in the north of the country that

ought to take precedence over HS2. It’s

crazy how long it takes to get east-west

across the country.”

• Mr Johnson as former foreign secretary and MP for
  Uxbridge and South Ruislip

£ 5 5. 7 bn

2015 costing

Jan 14 2012: As

Mayor of London

“I am a

passionate

supporter of HS

in principle, but

it has to be right

for London. And

there are

important

aspects which

are not right.

This is not the

end of

campaigning

against HS2.

This is not even

the end of the

beginning. This

is the beginning

of the middle of

the beginning.

There is no point

spending this

much on

something

which doesn’t

work properly.”

Sept 30 2018:

As former

foreign secretary

and as MP for

Uxbridge and

South Ruislip

“There are

projects we

should have on

transport in the

North that

ought to take

precedence over

HS2. It’s crazy

how long it takes

to get east-west.”

July 10 2019: As

Tory leadership

candidate:

“HS2 certainly

doesn’t do my

constituency any

particular

favours but I

have resolutely

refused to say I

would cancel

HS2 because ... I

hesitate before

doing things that

would stop great

public

infrastructure

projects. What

we need to look

at is the size of

the bill, it’s

probably north

of £100 billion by

the time it’s

done.”

July 31 2019

“Look, there’s no

one more

fanatical about

major

infrastructure

projects than

me. I’m going to

hesitate for a

long time before

scrapping any

major

infrastructure

project.”

‘No point spending money on something which doesn’t work’ What Boris Johnson has previously said about the HS2 project he has now asked to be looked at again

scrapping HS2 during the Tory leader-

ship contest, but has previously stated

his opposition to the scheme as mayor

of London and as a backbench MP.

In January 2012, he said there was

“no point spending this much on some-

thing which doesn’t work properly”.

In October 2018, shortly after he re-

signed as foreign secretary, he told the

Conservative Party conference that

projects in the North of England “ought

to take precedence over HS2”. He has

also recently noted that the final cost of

the project could be “north of £100bn”

and last week ditched the official

£56bn price tag insisted on by Theresa

May’s administration.

Critics of HS2 have been encouraged

by the appointment of Lord Berkeley,

one of the project’s fiercest critics, as

deputy chairman of the review.

A Labour peer and railway expert,

Lord Berkeley has repeatedly attacked

HS2 Ltd, as well as challenging the De-

partment for Transport’s cost figures.

He will work alongside Douglas Oak-

ervee, the chairman who previously

occupied the same role at HS2 Ltd and

was a close ally of Mr Johnson during

his time in City Hall.

They will be assisted by a panel of

experts, including leading rail figures,

who will advise ministers on “how and

whether” HS2 should proceed.

The review will consider the direct

cost of “reprioritising, cancelling or

descoping the project”, as well as

whether the £56 billion estimated cost

of the scheme is “realistic”.

A final report will be sent to Grant

Shapps, the Transport Secretary – with

oversight from Mr Johnson and Sajid

Javid, the Chancellor – by the autumn.

“The Prime Minister has been clear

that transport infrastructure has the

potential to drive economic growth, re-

distribute opportunity and support

towns and cities across the UK, but that

investments must be subject to contin-

uous assessment of their costs and ben-

efits,” Mr Shapps said.

“That’s why we are undertaking this

independent and rigorous review of

HS2,” he added.

Concern has been mounting that

HS2 cannot be built to its current spec-

ification within the £56 billion budget.

Allan Cook, the chairman of HS2 Ltd, is

believed to have written to the Depart-

ment for Transport warning that the

final bill could be as high as £85 billion.

Editorial Comment: Page 17

‘There is a strong political

case for scrapping it. It

would send out Tory MPs

able to say “we’ve delivered”’

This ill-conceived waste of £100bn went off the rails a long time ago

G

rant Shapps’ first major

announcement as Transport

Secretary – a review on whether

HS2 should go ahead – is excellent

news for British taxpayers.

I, alongside other colleagues in

Parliament, have long argued HS2 is a

colossal waste of money. In 2010 we

were told it would cost £33 billion and

that quickly ballooned to £56 billion.

With recent comments from the HS

chairman that costs could reach over

£100 billion, this review could not

have come soon enough.

Given the Government’s most

generous estimates predict only

£92 billion worth of benefits, it is

obvious the project is simply not

worth the cost.

In May, I launched a report with the

TaxPayers’ Alliance which looked at 28

possible alternatives to HS2 that can

be delivered much cheaper and much

faster. They included upgrading and

electrifying regional rail lines,

improving key roadways and building

new cycle paths around the country.

Value for money is not the only

problem with HS2. The Government

has changed the rationale for the

project multiple times.

In 2010 the main justification was

speed. They were so obsessed with

getting from point A to point B as

quickly as possible that the line

neglects small towns vitally in need of

an infrastructure boost.

Regardless of this, by the time HS

is complete it will be old technology.

Japan is building the world’s fastest

train reaching upwards of 250mph.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk and Richard

Branson are competing to build the

world’s first hyperloop reaching over

700mph. Compared with this, HS2 will

look like a horse and cart in a world of

Ferraris.

Once the speed argument was

discredited, the Government’s

rationale shifted to focusing on

capacity and congestion. We have all

been on a busy train and struggled to

find a seat. But HS2 is not the answer.

The most congested line in the

country is the route from Glasgow to

Manchester Airport which is at 211 per

cent capacity at peak times.

The second most congested route is

on the Oxted line from East Grinstead

to London Bridge at 191 per cent

capacity. HS2 will do nothing for

frustrated passengers on these lines.

We are also told that HS2 will be the

silver bullet to rebalance the North

and South. But the Government’s own

analysis shows that 40 per cent of the

benefits will go to London.

HS2 is a singularly unpopular policy

across the UK and apart from being the

right thing to do, cancelling this

scheme would be a vote winner in any

potential general election campaign.

David Davis is the MP for Haltemprice

and Howden and a former Brexit

secretary

Comment

By David Davis

6 ***^ Thursday 22 August 2019 The Daily Telegraph

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