Barron\'s - 02.09.2019

(Axel Boer) #1

22 BARRON’S September 2, 2019


been following for 10 years. The com-


pany manufactures everything that


goes into its high-powered lasers and


has only one competitor, IPG Photon-


ics —which the fund also owns. IPG


(IPGP) and nLIGHT have managed to


reduce the costs of owning, operating,


and maintaining their lasers, which are


far more precise than low-end lasers.


Adoption of their lasers by industrial


manufacturers has been rapid.


nLIGHT checks off all of the fund’s


boxes for quality. Its long-term trajec-


tory is perhaps its strongest feature.


It’s a small company with a market


value of $480 million, but Hinmon’s


team expects its fiber-optic lasers to


permanently take market share from


traditional carbon-dioxide ones. Hin-


mon says its gross profit margins can


expand from 35% to 50%. And the


company is still run by its three found-


ers, all with engineering backgrounds.


The stock has fallen sharply during


the U.S. trade war, as one of its end


markets is China, but Hinmon sees


that as a buying opportunity.


Hinmon is a thematic investor, look-


ing for long-term industry trends and


then investigating every company in a


favorite industry. He likes online retail,


so the obvious choice, Amazon.com


(AMZN), is the fund’s biggest holding.


He says it has plenty of room to grow,


despite its immense size. But he also


owns Argentina’s MercadoLibre


(MELI), which is “viewed as the Ama-


zon of Latin America,” he says. “That


sells the company short because it not


only has a thriving e-commerce busi-


ness, but like PayPal (PYPL) it also


has invested quite a bit in electronic


payments. And Latin America is a


market that it has already successfully


defended against Amazon.”


One important theme for Hinmon is


the evolution of workplaces, so that


intangible assets such as human or


intellectual capital—meaning people—


have become more valuable than phys-


ical assets such as real estate. He’s a


big fan of software companies, which


make up 14% of the fund’s portfolio,


especially ones that facilitate a digital


workplace. One favorite is Atlassian


(TEAM). The Australian company


originally designed its Jira software to


allow software engineers to collaborate


in code development, but has since


expanded to manage workflow for all


departments within an organization.


Bringing disparate people together


to collaborate is certainly something


that Hinmon knows all about.


those with “management teams that


think and act for the long term even


when there’s chaos surrounding them.”


Hinmon joined Motley Food Asset


Management in 2010, just after the


financial website launched its asset


management arm. Global Opportunities


was its first fund, launched in June


2009; Hinmon joined the fund’s man-


agement team in 2015. MFAM now


oversees $1 billion million in two mu-


tual funds and two exchange-traded


funds.


Hinmon looks for strong companies


that can withstand the next crisis. “We


define quality across four pillars, the


first being management, corporate


culture, and incentives,” he says. The


other three pillars are a business’ eco-


nomics, competitive advantage, and


trajectory: “Will this be a better or


worse business in 10 years, and why?”


Before any company can enter the


portfolio, its analyst must write a re-


port scoring the company on each of


the four pillars from one to five. Ev-


eryone else comes up with their own


quality scores for the stock. The team


then debates whether the company


should be added to the portfolio; Hin-


mon and Arsta make the final call.


Hinmon’s most recent addition, in


April, is laser manufacturer nLIGHT


(LASR), which one of his analysts has


MFAM Global Opportunities.............


Note: Holdings as of 6/30; Returns as of 8/26; three- and five-year
returns are annualized.
Sources: Morningstar; Motley Fool Asset Management


Total Return


1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr


FOOLX 5.2% 14.8% 8.6%


World Large


Stock Category


-1.5 8.2 5.2


Top 10 Holdings % of Assets


Company / Ticker


Amazon.com / AMZN 5.8%


Mastercard / MA 5.4


Medtronic / MDT 4.4


Atlassian / TEAM 3.8


Starbucks / SBUX 3.5


SoftBank Group / 9984.Japan 3.3


Paycom Software / PAYC 3.2


Watsco / WSO 3.2


MercadoLibre / MELI 3.1


SBA Communications /


SBAC


2.9


Total 38.6


Funds


Using Volatility ETFs for Safety


ByStephenGandel


INVESTORS ARE PILING INTO AN EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND THAT APPEARS TO PROM-


ise protection at a time when stocks, and the economy in general, look to be


theirmostvulnerableinyears.Theproblem:Thefundmayactuallybeoneof


the riskiest investments in the market right now.


The iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol U.S.A. ETF (ticker: USMV) has at-


tractednearly$9.5billionthisyear,secondonlytothebroaderandmuchbet-


terknown VanguardS&P500 (VOO).TheiSharesETFhasswelled42%in


thepasteightmonthsto$32billion,andisnowthelargestofthelow-volatility


ETFs,morethantwicethesizeofitsnextlargestrival,the$12billion Invesco


S&P 500 Low Volatility (SPLV), which has also been attracting assets.


Investor interest in understandable: As volatility increases, investors seek


safety.AndtheiSharesETF’sreturnshavebeenremarkable—up22%in2019,


versus18%fortheS&P500.Therehasalsobeenanumberofstudiessuggesting


thatlowvolatilityfundscanofferbetterreturnsandlowerriskthantraditional


indexfunds;themostfamousisa2014studybyaNewYorkUniversityecono-


mistandstrategistfromhedgefundAQRcalled“BettingAgainstBeta,”theWall


Streettermforhowmuchastockmovesinlockstepwiththerestofthemarket.


Theargumentforwhylowvolatilitystocksoutperformisessentiallyavalue


one.Whenthestockmarketisrising,newinvestorstendtobedrawntothe


stocksthataregoingup.Indexfunds,whicharemostlymarket-capweighed,


alsoownmoreofthebest-performingstocksastheyrise.Basedonthat,low


volatility stocks are often relatively undervalued.


That’s not the case now. The average stock in the iShares ETF trades for


24timestrailing12-monthearnings,versus19fortheS&P500;theETFoverall


tradesata17%premiumtoitsMSCIbenchmark.ArecentstudyfromLeuthold


Groupfoundthatlowvolatilitystocks,relativetotheirhighervolatilitypeers,


are 99% more expensive than they have been over time, going back to 1990.


Anotherproblemisinterestrates.Lowvolatilitystockstendtobeinsectors


that do better when interest rates are falling. The surprise drop in interest


ratesthisyear,forinstance,isprobablywhylow-volETFshavedonesowell


in 2019. Interest rates may not rise anytime soon, given the lack of strength


in the economy, but they probably won’t drop much more, either. That could


temper some enthusiasm for low volatility strategies for a while.


Lastly,theETFitselfisdiversifiedacrosssectors—ratherthanowningthe


stocks with the lowest volatility, as the Invesco ETF does, the iShares ETF


ownsthelowest-volstocksineachsector.Thatleadstogreaterdiversification—


theInvescoETFtendstobeheavilyweightedinutilitiesandrealestate—but


canleadtounexpectedvolatility.Forinstance,iShares’USMVfellmorethan


10%inlastyear’smarketturmoilfrommid-Augustuntiltheendoftheyear;


theS&Pwasupnearly10%inthesameperiod.Evenso,“webelieveadiversi-


fied low vol approach over time will produce market-like returns with lower


risk,” says Holly Framsted, head of U.S. factor ETFs for BlackRock.


ResearchAffiliates,however,hasfoundthatthemoreadjustmentsmadeto


astraightlow-volatilityportfolio,thelesseffectiveitwillbeatmitigatingmar-


ket downturns. Feifei Li, a partner and head of investment strategy at Re-


searchAffiliates,preferstheInvescoETFforthisreason.Itsportfoliohasa


slightlyloweraverageprice/earningratio,23,thantheiShares’24.Thefund


isunlikelytooutperformthemarket—itfacesthesameinterest-rateheadwinds


astheiSharesETF—butit’slikelytodoabetterjobofprotectingyourmoney,


and that’s the reason for buying a low vol ETF in the first place. 

Free download pdf