Barron\'s - 02.09.2019

M38 BARRON’S September 2, 2019

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 23 / 4 23 / 4 21 / 2

PrimeRate(base) 51 / 4 51 / 4 5

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 23 / 25 23 / 25 147 / 50

Avg weekly auction-c 2.12 2.12 1.92

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.992 1.941 2.120

13 weeks, Auction Rate 1.950 1.900 2.080

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.888 1.888 2.266

26 weeks, Auction Rate 1.840 1.840 2.210
Avg weekly auction-c 1.92 1.91 2.04

BrokerCallRate 4 4 3 3/4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.15 2.15 1.93

2 months 2.15 2.15 2.08

3 months 2.15 2.15 2.23

6 months 2.05 2.05 2.35

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.486 -0.453 -0.392

3 months -0.473 -0.449 -0.353

6 months -0.460 -0.440 -0.316

12 months -0.402 -0.385 -0.215

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 2.09 2.14 2.11

3 months 2.14 2.14 2.32

6 months 2.04 2.08 2.54

12 months 1.97 2.03 2.84

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 2.99 3.06 4.18

Bank money market-z 0.23 0.23 0.20

Interest Checking-z 0.08 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.59 0.60 0.38

12-Month Certif-z 0.87 0.88 0.73
30 Month Accounts-z 0.92 0.92 0.99

5-Year Certificates-z 1.22 1.23 1.30

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

3.80

3.15

2.50

1.85

1.20

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

S O N D J F M A M J J A

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

CBOE s

s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedAug28:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,589,547 -3,597 -439,999

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 35 + 1 + 11

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 105 + 7 -165

Float -173 -52 + 43

OtherF.R.Assets 19,243 + 709 -1,999

TotalFedCredit# 3,723,811 -3,343 -461,853

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,042 + 14 + 379

Total 3,811,012 -3,251 -461,641

Currencyincirc 1,751,632 + 2,385 + 75,324

Treas.CashHldgs 160 -11 -56

Treas.FedDeposits 145,957 + 20,232 -196,586

ForeignFedDeposits 5,256 .... ....

OtherFedDeposits 73,793 + 11,122 -372

OtherFRliab/cap 45,003 + 622 -512

Totalfactors 2,312,332 + 14,114 -76,397

ReservesF.R.banks 1,498,680 -17,365 -385,244

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,475,359 + 4,013 + 46,303

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Aug28: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,574,001 1,610,673 -2.28 1,949,311

Nonborrowed Res # 1,573,865 1,610,570 -2.28 1,949,022

Required Res ## 210,594 191,371 10.04 197,227

ExcessReserves: 1,363,407 1,419,302 -3.94 1,752,084

Borrowed Reserves 136 103 32.04 289

Free Reserves ### 1,363,271 1,419,199 -3.94 1,751,795

MonetaryBase 3,257,802 3,292,735 -1.06 3,558,640

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

SouthKorea (Won) .0008261 .0008240 1210.50 1213.66

SriLanka (Rupee) .0056 .0056 179.4400 180.0500

Sweden (Krona) .1018 .1042 9.8217 9.5998

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0104 1.0259 .9897 .9748

Taiwan (Dollar) .03192 .03181 31.333 31.434

Thailand (Baht) .03265 .03264 30.630 30.640

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1715 .1736 5.8306 5.7599

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0396 .0398 25.2270 25.1110

U.K. (Pound) 1.2161 1.2284 .8223 .8141

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02730 .02738 36.630 36.520

----

Euro 1.0991 1.1144 .9099 .8973

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,August30,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0168 .0181 59.5093 55.1600

Australia (Dollar) .6733 .6755 1.4852 1.4804

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6524 2.6525 .3770 .3770

Brazil (Real) .2412 .2425 4.1455 4.1238

Bulgaria (Lev) .5620 .5699 1.7793 1.7547

Canada (Dollar) .7512 .7528 1.3312 1.3284

Chile (Peso) .001386 .001389 721.30 719.70

China (Renminbi) .1397 .1409 7.1567 7.0960

Colombia (Peso) .0002917 .0002921 3428.10 3423.30

Croatia (Kuna) .1484715 .1508409 6.74 6.63

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04235 .04311 23.610 23.196

Denmark (Krone) .1474 .1494 6.7840 6.6919

Ecuador USDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0605 .0603 16.5320 16.5755

HongKong (Dollar) .1275 .1275 7.8425 7.8425

Hungary (Forint) .003317 .003386 301.47 295.37

Iceland (Krona) .007935 .008057 126.02 124.12

India (Rupee) .01394 .01398 71.741 71.512

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000705 .0000704 14185 14213

Israel (Shekel) .2832 .2848 3.5305 3.5118

Japan (Yen) .009409 .009489 106.28 105.38

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002579 .002590 387.81 386.13

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2985 3.2884 .3032 .3041

Macau (Pataca) .1236 .1238 8.0926 8.0777

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2378 .2386 4.2055 4.1910

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0498 .0502 20.0651 19.9172

NewZealand (Dollar) .6308 .6401 1.5853 1.5623

Norway (Krone) .1096 .1116 9.1247 8.9587

Oman (Rial) 2.5973 2.5976 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00635 .00627 157.500 159.500

Philippines (Peso) .01917 .01906 52.165 52.459

Poland (Zloty) .2511 .2547 3.9825 3.9265

Qatar (Rial) .2753 .2748 3.6329 3.6394

Russia (Ruble)-a .01499 .01516 66.710 65.982

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2667 3.7508 3.7497

Singapore (Dollar) .7208 .7209 1.3873 1.3871

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0659 .0656 15.1831 15.2519

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 8/30 8/23 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1528.40 1503.80 1202.45

Silver,troyounce 18.39 17.43 14.54

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1580.80 60.80 4.00

MapleLeaf 1596.00 76.00 5.00

MexicanPeso 1840.66 8.00 0.44

AustriaCrown 1492.90 3.00 0.20

AustriaPhil 1596.00 76.00 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1596.00 76.00 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1520.00

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 8/29 8/22 Ago Chg.

550.64382.52 Gold mining 543.78 527.86404.04 +3.02

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 57% 59% 60%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 26.1% 26.6% 23.2%

Bearish 42.2 39.7 44.8

Neutral 31.7 33.6 32.0

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 45% 48% 49%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 51.0% 49.8% 46.5%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 7,426 r14,367 5,099

Municipal (z) 8,319 r15,802 5,207

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.66 2.74 3.83

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.38 3.46 4.78

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

78.8 79.0 80.2

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4284.67 4250.29 3430.61

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3073.99 3053.58 2712.08

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

307.01 303.86 269.76

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.97 3.07 3.96

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.53 3.55 4.02

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.35 –.40 –1.71

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.86 2.92 3.84

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedAugust19

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,809.7r3,858.93,676.5 3.62

M1(notadjusted) 3,784.8r3,720.43,682.2 2.79

M2(seas.adjusted) 14,936.7r14,941.714,214.9 5.08

M2(notadjusted) 14,928.3r14,942.514,188.1 5.22

TwoWeeksendedAugust14

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) r1.161 1.174 1.005 15.52

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJuly

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,852.1 3,824.0 3,667.2 5.04

M2(seas.adjusted) r14,871.2r14,771.214,146.7 5.12

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

S O N D J F M A M J JA

Barron's Gold Mining Index (543.73)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Negative/Positive: With bond yields

negative, gold finished the week up

1.6%, at $1,528 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30

NYSE .78 1.20 .56 .70 .86

NYSEAmerican .48 .30 .90 .78 1.17

Nasdaq .78 .79 .89 .72 1.04