Seeing Trends
ANALYTICS in the Data
PAGE
3
15
FORTUNE.COM // SEPTEMBER 2019
G
O
O
D
N
O
T-
S
O
- G
O
O
D
W
A
R
N
IN
G
S
IG
N
S
2
4
6
8
10%
The U.S. unemployment rate is at historically
low levels and is still trending downward.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
0
50
100
150
Consumers are bullish, and they’re getting
more so.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
1.
1.
2.
2.5%
More Americans are leaving their jobs
voluntarily, a mark of economic confidence.
QUITS RATE
JAN. 2000 JUNE 2019
10
15
20
25 million
U.S. auto sales, a core economic indicator,
peaked in 2017 and are trending down.
VEHICLES SOLD
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E
ratio index indicates low future returns.
ST0CK-PRICE VALUATION
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
0
50
100
$
Anemic oil prices reflect weak industrial
demand—a concerning sign.
OIL PRICEs
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
0.
1.
1.
2.0 million
New housing construction is stalling—and
never reached pre-crisis levels.
NEW BUILDING PERMITS
JAN. 2000 JUNE 2019
30
40
50
60
The index is approaching 50. Recessions
tend to happen below that level.
ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
0
2
4
6% 10-YEAR GOVERNMENTBOND RATE
3-MONTH RATE
Long-term bond rates are below short-term
rates, another recession indicator.
THE YIELD CURVE
JAN. 2000 JULY 2019
3.7%
135.7 2.3% PER MONTH
(1985=100)
16.8 M. VEHICLES SOLD
ANNUALLY
30.3x
1.22 MILLION
PERMITS
(ANNUALIZED)
51.
2.02%
2.07%
$56.
PER BARREL
(WTI)
SOURCES: CENSUS BUREAU; BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS; THE CONFERENCE BOARD; BLOOMBERG; ROBERT SHILLER; INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT
10
20
30
40x
Opinions are split on whether the Federal Reserve
responded to genuine concerns for the U.S.
economy in cutting interest rates for the first time
in 11 years in late July, or simply bowed to political
pressure. But the warning signs of recession are
showing themselves—and a majority of economists
now believe the next cuts will come before the 2020
elections. We’re keeping an eye on these nine key
Code Yellow For the Economy metrics to judge the health of the economy.
