18 United States The EconomistAugust 24th 2019
2 charged after the raids in Mississippi. Koch
Foods, one of the raided processors, noted
in a statement that employers cannot de-
mand more documents when employees
present authentic-looking papers, and that
e-Verify, an online system that is supposed
to confirm employees’ legality, does not
catch workers using the stolen or borrowed
identity of a legal migrant.
As a show of force, such raids are im-
pressive. As a matter of policy, they are in-
efficient, requiring large resource expendi-
tures to arrest a few hundred workers. It
may sound tough to say that every undocu-
mented immigrant is an equal priority, but
from a public-safety perspective it makes
no sense. A workplace raid absorbs time
that then cannot be spent on more danger-
ous undocumented immigrants.
There are signs that this shift in priori-
ties is having consequences. The number
of deported people convicted of a crime fell
to its lowest level in 2017 since 2008, the
year before Mr Obama became president.
That figure has started to climb, but re-
mains below the average from Mr Obama’s
time in office.
Nor is it just immigrants whom these
raids make nervous. Poultry is Mississip-
pi’s biggest agricultural industry, but cut-
ting chickens is a dangerous job and pro-
cessors were already struggling to find
workers. Allison Crittenden, the congres-
sional-relations director at the American
Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural
lobbying group, says her members worry
about raids causing “a potential disruption
to farming operations”.
So what do these raids accomplish? For
one thing, they help Mr Trump keep his de-
portation numbers up now that local police
are less co-operative than they used to be.
Between Mr Bush’s inauguration and the
start of Mr Obama’s second term, deporta-
tions rose markedly—from 189,000 in 2001
to 432,000 in 2013 (see chart).
Much of that increase stemmed from lo-
cal police assistance. Metro areas that offer
sanctuary to illegal immigrants—as more
than three-quarters of those housing most
of America’s undocumented population
do—limit such co-operation. ice agents
cannot simply wander through immigrant
neighbourhoods at random demanding
proof of citizenship. Workplaces provide
large numbers of undocumented people at
a single, predictable site.
Mr Trump may believe that raids deter
would-be migrants, but no evidence backs
him up. It is difficult to imagine that some-
one whose children have been targeted by
gangs in Honduras will factor the prospect
of being caught in a raid in Mississippi or
Ohio into their decision to flee. Raids dom-
inate a couple of news cycles, scare immi-
grants and let Mr Trump project toughness.
On a recent afternoon, José’s neigh-
bourhood was deserted. Yet if the adminis-trationhadsetitselfagainstJoséandhis
family, his neighbours had not. Pastor
Bowmansayshisparishionerstendtobe
politicallyconservative, but alsobelieve
that“Godtellsusexplicitlytofeedthehun-
gry,toclothethoseinneedofclothes,to
providesheltertothosewhoarehomeless
andtocarefortheimmigrantpopulation
withintheboundariesofourcountry.” 7TrumpslumpSource:DepartmentofHomelandSecurityUnitedStates,immigrantdeportations,’01002003004005001993 2000 05 10 15 17CriminalNon-criminalS
upport for miners is ubiquitous in
Eveleth, Minnesota. Hand-painted
signs on roadsides and placards in bars and
other businesses proclaim mining to be the
region’s lifeblood. Bob Vlaisavljevich, the
mayor of this small town in the north-east-
ern corner of the state, lauds taconite and
other minerals as the spine of the local
economy. “The mining rank and file think
like me,” he says, recounting the story of
his grandfather, who migrated to the area
from Serbia a century ago.
Loyalty to resource extraction endures
in Eveleth and across four small mining
cities—called the Quad Cities—in a region
known as the Iron Range. But much else is
shifting. Mr Vlaisavljevich, who was first
elected in 1987, recalls how the Quad Cities
had some 14,000 miners in the 1980s. That
has dwindled to just 4,200. Their well-paid
jobs once sustained a roaring regional
economy. Eveleth alone boasted several car
dealerships, jewellery and furniture shops,
restaurants and “houses selling like crazy”.
No more. “Back then it was hard to find
parking,” says the mayor, gesturing to a
wide, near-deserted street by the town hall.
Mr Vlaisavljevich has also changed. He
and his family were long proud Democrats,like most on the Range. He voted for Barack
Obama as president. Today he has a placard
praising Donald Trump glued to his mayor-
al desk. He points to a Christmas card sent
from the president on his wall. On the desk
a joke roll of toilet paper bears an image of
Hillary Clinton.
“You know what I am? I’m a Democrat
that supports Republican policies,” he
says, describing his political transition.
“The Democrats are two parties in one, and
the left has abandoned the middle class.”
He lauds Republican tariffs on imported
steel, saying that would once have been a
Democratic policy. He thinks Democrats
are soft on immigration. He resents rich,
big-city folk in Minneapolis, for “selfishly”
blocking plans to establish open-pit mines
for copper and other materials. “Now it’s a
survival thing. With all the environmental
groups, they want to stop all that mining.”
In nearby Hibbing, Todd Hall is also
from a mining family of fervent Demo-
crats. But he and his wife, Kirstie Hall, have
jumped party, calling liberal-minded
Democrats out of touch. “The working
class don’t recognise the Democratic
Party,” claims Mrs Hall. She calls a state-
wide plan to increase petrol taxes an em-
blem of neglect for rural concerns. The
Halls are also troubled by an influx of So-
mali refugees to other towns in the state.
So for three years she has organised a
Republican float for Hibbing’s annual
street parade. At first, she says the float was
met with no more than boos and jeers. But
sympathy is growing, she says. Mr Hall says
it was once socially unacceptable to admit
to supporting Republicans but that the ta-
boo is lifting. Mr Vlaisavljevich says local
union leaders know rank-and-file mem-
bers are drifting to support “that guy”,
meaning Mr Trump.
Jennifer Carnahan, who leads the Re-
publican party in Minnesota, calls the
Range ripe for expansion. “Union workers
need to take advantage of resources, create
jobs, to reinvigorate the area,” she says, us-
ing the sort of language long deployed by
Democratic leaders. She says state Republi-
cans can emulate a strategy that worked in
neighbouring Wisconsin by winning over
small towns and blue-collar voters even if
cities remain out of reach.
But could gains in the Iron Range help
to tip Minnesota Republican in the 2020
presidential election? Mr Trump says he is
eyeing the state. He came within only
44,000 votes—a 1.5% margin—of taking
Minnesota’s ten electoral votes in 2016,
when Republicans won 78 of the state’s 87
counties. Mrs Carnahan wants Mr Trump
to hold three big rallies across the north,
south and west of Minnesota, which she
says could help put the state in play. Repub-
licans did poorly last year in the mid-
terms, especially in suburbs. But they
flipped the 8th congressional district,EVELETH, MINNESOTA
Republicans see an opening in a
longtime Democratic strongholdParty politicsRural change
1