2019-08-24 The Economist Latin America

The EconomistAugust 24th 2019 United States 19

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whichincludestheIronRange.

LarryJacobsoftheUniversityofMinne-

sotaagreesa tightcontestislikely,calling

thestatea “tossup”.Thatisa remarkable

judgment, considering Democrats have

wonthestatein11 successivepresidential

electionssince 1976 andrarelybotherto

campaignmuchthere.Hepointsto fre-

quentRepublicansuccessesinstatewide

legislativeraces.Farmersinthesouthand

westofthestate,alongwithminersinthe

Iron Range, are leaving the Democratic

fold,hesays,whileurbanandsuburban

votersflocktoit.Muchisinflux.

Mr Trump’s attacks on Ilhan Omar,

whichhaveraisedthestandingofthefirst-

timecongresswomanofSomalidescentin

Minneapolis,havealsohelpedtoexposean

urban-ruralfaultlineamongDemocrats,

saysMrJacobs.MsOmar,whocanbeout-

spoken incriticisingMrTrumpand his

policies,isintenselypopularamongher

urban constituents. But in small-town,

blue-collar and overwhelmingly white

placeslikeEvelethandHibbing,herhigh

profile makessomeuneasy.Thestateis

80%whiteandhasa relativelyfast-grow-

ingnon-whitepopulation.Somevotersbe-

yondcities,anxiousaboutracialchange,

couldfallinwithMrTrump.

HowmightDemocratsrespond?Heidi

Heitkamp,a senatorinNorthDakotauntil

thisyear,isleadinga nationaleffortcalled

“OneCountry”topersuaderuralvotersthat

Democratshavetheirinterestsatheart.She

citestheIronRangeastypicalofwherethe

partymust pay moreattention. “Demo-

cratsfailedtoshowupandlistentolegiti-

mateconcerns”insuchplaces,shesays.

Thepartyshouldoffera messageofinfra-

structureinvestmentandoftappingrural

labourforwhite-collarjobs,shesays,even

if it won’tcommittorevivingmining.

MsHeitkampalsowantsDemocratsto

changetheirtonewhenaddressingvoters

intownslikeEveleth.“Ithinkminerswant

tohearthetruth.RightnowruralAmerica

dependsontradeaid,butthereisareal

highbullshit factor,” shesays, meaning

politicianshavenotbeenstraightwhenex-

plainingthata changingeconomyrequires

government help in retraining for new

jobs.MrTrumpmaymakesimplevowsto

restoreoldminingwork,butDemocrats

could explain how tourism, technology,

engineering,healthcareandotherindus-

triescanbringeconomicrevival.

Suchmessageswon’twinoverallrural

voters,sheadmits,buttheyarebetterthan

silence.“RuralAmericaismovable,”shear-

gues,pointingtotheappealofLauraKelly,

theDemocraticgovernorofKansas,insub-

urbs,smalltownsandcities.Similarsuc-

cessesmayonlybereplicatedif candidates

showupinplaceslikeEveleth.“Itisa game

ofinches,notyards,”saysMsHeitkamp.If

Democrats failto play, Republicanswill

maketherunningontheRange. 7

A

t nine o’clock on a recent Friday,

some 80 people—mostly black—

waitedonpew-likebenchesforthestart of

theirevictioncasesathousingcourt. The

few lawyers in attendance—all white—

werepresenttobringtheday’scases on be-

halfoflandlords,oftenseveraldozen at a

time.The 25 peoplewhodidnotshow up

forcourtreceiveddefaultevictionorders

inthespanofa fewminutes.Thosepresent

could choose to mount legal defences.

Mostdidnot.

Similarscenesplayoutalmostdaily in

courtrooms acrossthe country. In 2016

there were an estimated 2.4m eviction

casesfiledinAmericaandnearly900,

completed,accordingtotheEviction Lab, a

researchoutfitatPrincetonUniversity led

byMatthewDesmond,asociologist. His

bestselling book, “Evicted: Poverty and

ProfitintheAmericanCity”,argues that

“evictionisa cause,notjusta condition, of

poverty”.ItwonthePulitzerprizein 2017

andhasreinvigoratedtheneglectedfield of

evictionresearch.

It israrefora sociologybooktobe wide-

lyread,letaloneactedon.Yetsince the

publicationof MrDesmond’sbook, New

YorkCityhasbecomethefirstplaceto guar-

anteea righttolegalcounselineviction

proceedings.Likeseveralothercities, it has

alsostrengtheneditsemergencyrental-as-

sistance programme. The city’s eviction

numbers have plummeted from a high of

28,849 in 2013 to just 18,152 in 2018.

Landlords have the right to enforce ten-

ants’ legal obligation to pay rent. Almost all

eviction filings are caused by a tenant fail-

ing to meet these obligations. Yet it has be-

come clear that the engine behind evic-

tions is poverty and that they are bad for

tenants. The looming question for re-

searchers now is how bad.

Housing instability wrecks credit his-

tories and disrupts work and school. See-

ing one’s possessions thrown onto the

street can be scarring. But quantifying the

effects on tenants—and, consequently, the

benefit of forestalling evictions—is diffi-

cult. That is because those facing removal

from their homes are often already in dire

straits.

However, economists have recently

found that the financial consequences of

eviction look less dismal than might be ex-

pected. In a recent working paper from the

National Bureau of Economic Research en-

titled “Does eviction cause poverty?”, four

economists examined every eviction filing

made in Cook County, which includes the

city of Chicago. The researchers compared

financial outcomes for tenants who were

evicted with those who were not. They

found that both groups were in remarkably

poor financial shape in the years leading

up to their eviction cases. They both re-

WASHINGTON,DC

Newresearchprobeseviction’scauses and consequences

Evictionsexamined

Pushedout

When a house is no longer home

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