32 China The EconomistAugust 24th 2019
2 land. They duly fell into line.
Since the handover the tycoons have
come to dominate not just the economy
but also government, opposing calls for
more democratic representation, a more
generous welfare state and, of course, a
programme to build mass, cheap housing
of the kind that Singapore has long pro-
moted (and used to keep voters quiescent).
Part of the tycoons’ clout comes from their
contribution to Hong Kong’s finances: 27%
of government revenues come from land
sales. Since the start of the crisis Hong
Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, has not
met any democracy activists, but she has
consulted with several plutocrats.
In public, however, the normally volu-
ble tycoons have fallen silent. They are pre-
sumably hoping to avoid offending both
their patrons in Beijing and their custom-
ers in Hong Kong. For a Chinese govern-
ment demanding that business bow down
(see Business section), that is no longer
good enough.
Chinese media have taken to attacking
Hong Kong’s oligarchs for insufficient dis-
plays of loyalty. Over the weekend several
showed up at a pro-government rally. Li Ka-
shing, Hong Kong’s richest man, has placed
full-page advertisements in the local press,
calling for restraint. But his message—
some enigmatic quotes from classical liter-
ature—was ambiguous. Was it aimed at the
protesters, the local government or the au-
thorities in Beijing?
In a recent meeting with visiting West-
ern dignitaries, a senior Chinese official
complained about Hong Kong’s tycoons.
The crisis was exposing the shortcomings
of Hong Kong’s capitalist system, the offi-
cial said: it was not spreading wealth
around as much as the central government
had hoped.
That realisation, if it is widely shared in
Beijing, is a welcome development. Just as
a political solution to the crisis has to in-
volve a less rigged system of political repre-
sentation, so an economic dimension has
to involve a less rigged property market.
Perhaps leaders in Beijing think such a re-
form would be a substitute for democracy.
Either way, they appear to be starting to ap-
preciate that Hong Kong’s property cartel
needs to be challenged by policies that see
much more land released for low-cost
housing.
The potential, says Johnny Kember of
KplusK Associates, an architectural prac-
tice, is vast. Over 1,000 hectares of brown-
field sites could quickly be developed, he
notes. There is also the 170-hectare golf
course in Fanling, whose lease comes up
next year. Many of Hong Kong’s fat cats
would surely resent giving up their week-
ends there to help the very people who are
out making trouble. But given the souring
mood in Beijing, that is what they may yet
be forced to do. 7O
n the eveningof August 19th at least
two dozen police officers could be seen
loitering at the entrances to Senado Square,
a narrow, busy plaza in the heart of old Ma-
cau. They took down the names of passing
youngsters, especially anyone in black or
white clothing. Some were led to a nearby
car park to be searched. A few were taken
away for further questioning.
The cops were there to discourage peo-
ple from participating in a silent rally that
had been advertised online a few days ear-
lier, and to intercept people who had talked
of confronting them. The rally organisers,
who have not been named, hoped people in
Macau would come out to condemn the
way police in nearby Hong Kong have dealt
with anti-government protests there. Local
authorities, unusually, disallowed the
event; police warned that attendees risked
up to two years in jail. Around the same
time the city began renovating a famous
fountain protesters had planned to gather
around. It will be hidden behind blue
hoardings for a month.
Leaders in Macau seem anxious about
contagion from Hong Kong, which lies
65km to the east along China’s southern
coast. The former Portuguese colony has
been allowed to run its own affairs since it
was handed back to the mainland in 1999.
But like Hong Kong, its institutions are
flawed. Only 14 out of the 33 legislative as-
sembly seats are directly elected, the rest
being doled out to interest groups. Thecity’s chief executive is elected every five
years by a committee of 400 bigwigs. At a
meeting on August 25th they will ask Ho Iat
Seng (pictured), a businessman, to take up
the job in December. It is the fourth time in
a row that the Communist Party’s preferred
candidate has run unopposed.
Macau is very unlikely to develop an
anti-government movement of the sort
seen in Hong Kong. With only about
600,000 residents, its economy is heavily
reliant on money and visitors from the
mainland, and its small political class is
loyal to the party. Although its laws guaran-
tee rights to speech and assembly, Macau
has plenty of tools for dampening dissent,
including stern national-security legisla-
tion of a type that does not yet exist in Hong
Kong. People associated with pro-democ-
racy movements in Hong Kong sometimes
get stopped at Macau’s borders. That is
more common than being denied entry to
the mainland, says one.
Although youngsters are growing more
politically aware, Macau’s people are
“largely apolitical and pragmatic”, says
Sonny Lo of Hong Kong University. The
city’s gdpper person is among the highest
in the world. Some government revenue,
derived primarily from the territory’s enor-
mous casinos, is distributed to residents as
an annual cash handout. This year the give-
away is 10,000 patacas ($1,250) per adult.
Macau has a more generous welfare system
than Hong Kong, including better provi-
sion of social housing. Beneficiaries are
loth to rock the boat.
Elections in 2017 brought fresh faces to
the legislature, most notably Sulu Sou, a
pro-democracy lawmaker who, at 26, was
the youngest to ever join the body. But the
pro-reform bloc grabbed only about a quar-
ter of votes, not much changed from the
previous election. Mr Sou thinks that me-
dia coverage of protests in Hong Kong has
hardened pre-existing views in Macau. He
says that in recent weeks conservative vot-
ers who have long been suspicious of calls
for fuller democracy seem to have become
much more vehement.
At a meeting with officials and journal-
ists on August 10th Mr Ho said that his new
administration would aim to make Ma-
cau’s youth more patriotic, including
through the education system. That has its
perils: a few years ago ham-fisted efforts to
tinker with Hong Kong’s curriculum
caused a backlash that presaged the more
recent unrest. In the nearer term nervous
authorities will have to resist overreacting
to locals inspired by Hong Kong’s protests.
No one wants police to keep interrupting
people’s evening strolls. 7MACAU
The former Portuguese territory shrugs
off the turmoil in Hong KongMacauBetting on red
Ho humRead a series of guest commentaries on
Hong Kong at Economist.com/openfuture