The EconomistAugust 24th 2019 Middle East & Africa 371I
t was astunning sight for many Suda-
nese. For nearly 30 years Omar al-Bashir
led a crooked and genocidal regime in Su-
dan. On August 19th, four months after be-
ing ousted in a coup, Mr Bashir sat in a cage
in a Sudanese courtroom. It was the first
day of his trial for corruption. When asked
where he lived, Mr Bashir seemed amused
by his comeuppance. “Formerly the airport
district, at army headquarters, but now Ko-
bar prison,” he said with a laugh.
Sudan is entering a new chapter, and
the trial of Mr Bashir is only part of it. A day
earlier, after months of negotiations, the
military junta that has run things since the
coup agreed to share power with civilian
leaders. A transitional government led by
Abdalla Hamdok, an economist, is expect-
ed to take over on September 1st. If all goes
well elections will be held in 2022. News of
the deal caused the streets of the capital to
erupt in celebration. But many of the
democrats rejoicing were also nervous
about the path ahead.
That is because the generals still hold
much sway. They signed the agreement
only after coming under intense pressure
from foreign powers. Under the deal, a new
Sovereign Council responsible for defence
and foreign affairs will be made up of five
soldiers and six civilians. But it will be led
by Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Bur-
han for 21 months (after which he is sup-
posed to hand over to a civilian). The army
also controls the defence and interior min-
istries, which have large budgets and were
responsible for past abuses. The generals,who accumulated vast wealth under Mr Ba-
shir, are already buying off opponents.
The appointment of Muhammad Ham-
dan Dagalo (known as Hemedti) to the
council is particularly worrying. The para-
military commander is said to be one of the
richest men in Sudan, having strong-
armed his way into the gold business. He is
also intensely feared. His Rapid Support
Forces (rsf) grew out of the Janjaweed, a
militia responsible for genocide in Darfur.
The rsfled a bloody crackdown on protes-
ters in June, killing more than 100. The gen-
erals may worry that real reform will lead to
accountability. It is notable that Mr Bashir
is on trial only for corruption—not torture
or murder, in which the armed forces and
security services were complicit.
Sudan is huge and disunited. Rebel
leaders in Darfur, Blue Nile state and South
Kordofan rejected the power-sharing
agreement, arguing that it did too little to
accommodate them. The generals have
tried to cut separate deals with these
groups. “Given the junta’s desire to divide
and rule, the civilian opposition cannot af-
ford to be seen as excluding the rebels from
the transition,” says the International Cri-
sis Group, a think-tank. But the opposition
is itself divided. Some factions have reject-
ed the agreement because of the role of for-
mer junta members and the failure to hold
them accountable for past violence.
The new government faces immediate
challenges, not least a collapsing economy.
It will try to convince America to remove
Sudan from its list of state sponsors of ter-
ror, which would open it up to foreign in-
vestment. The imfand World Bank might
then help Sudan deal with a mountain of
public debt. All that will take time. Mean-
while, Sudanese people are suffering from
shortages of food, fuel and electricity. An-
ger over a spike in the price of bread
sparked the first protests against Mr Bashir
last year. More unrest may be unavoidable.
But for now, at least, there is hope. 7A power-sharing deal paves the way for
civilian rule. The generals could spoil itSudanThe start of
something new?
On track, for nowH
osni mubarakonce shut off the inter-
net to discourage protests. So what
happened to one of his biggest online sup-
porters this summer is ironic. Karim Hus-
sein shares photos and videos of the for-
mer dictator with the 3m followers of his
“I’m Sorry, Mr President” Facebook page.
Many of his posts are subtly political, like a
tongue-in-cheek list of reasons why Egyp-
tians wanted to overthrow Mr Mubarak in
2011: a stable pound; manageable external
debt; thriving tourism. (All have worsened
since the revolution.)
Mr Hussein also wrote that the ex-presi-
dent allowed a free press. That was an exag-
geration. But the current president, Abdel-
Fattah al-Sisi, does not tolerate even the
limited political freedoms his predecessor
did. On July 9th police arrested Mr Hussein
on suspicion of “spreading false news”.
Back in 2011, when a popular uprising
ended Mr Mubarak’s 30-year rule, it was
hard to imagine much nostalgia. Many
Egyptians felt their country was adrift, led
by an old man who was not up to the job.
They mocked his doddering demeanour by
calling him la vache qui rit, the laughing
cow, after a French brand of processed
cheese with a beaming bovine on the box.
Eight years later, more than a few Egyp-
tians view the past through rose-tinted
glasses. Ordinary people recall a president
who maintained a subsidy scheme that
kept prices low. The dispirited remnants of
Egypt’s civil society miss the relative open-
ness. Mr Mubarak allowed a bit of space for
opposition, as a safety valve and a sop to
the West. Mr Sisi has ramped up executions
and persecutes even supporters who step
out of line. “They were professionals. Now
they’re amateurs,” says one activist of
those in charge.
Mr Mubarak and his sons have stoked
nostalgia by returning to the public eye. In
May the former president sat for a rare in-
terview with a Kuwaiti journalist. The dis-
cussion was largely about foreign affairs.
He held forth on Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait
in 1990 and Donald Trump’s efforts at Israe-
li-Palestinian peace. But it cast him back in
his cherished role as a well-travelled elder
statesman. His eldest son, Alaa, has also
become more visible. He pops up in photos
on social media, playing backgammon in
humble cafés or dining in El Prince, a pop-
ular haunt in the working-class Imbaba
district, famed for heaping portions of
fried liver and other healthy fare.CAIRO
The former president and his sons are
stoking nostalgia in EgyptHosni MubarakLa vache qui vit