2019-08-24 The Economist Latin America

38 Middle East & Africa The EconomistAugust 24th 2019

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T

heconcretewallsringingtheAl-Aw-

dahcampforSyrianrefugeesinLeba-

nonappearcheerful.Pinkheartsadornone

segment,SpongeBobSquarePantsanother.

Thewalls,though,aretheonlyremaining

tracesof 178 homesthatweredemolished

inJune,ostensiblyforbuilding-codeviola-

tions.“It’sanupsettingthing,”saysAbuJa-

wad,a longtimeresident.“Evenifitwas

onlytemporary,thiswaswhereyouraised

yourchildren.”

Thedemolitionsarepartofanincreas-

inglyvicious campaignagainst theesti-

mated1m-1.5mSyrianrefugeesinLebanon.

Overthepastfewmonths theLebanese

government has deported hundreds of

themandtightenedrestrictionsonthose

whoremain.Politicianshaveblamedthem

fora raftofeconomicproblems.Spurred

onbyincendiaryreportsinthepress,vigi-

lanteshaveattackedcampsandharassed

Syriansinthestreets.“Idon’tthinkthereis

anyscenariowherethisendswell,”says

CarmenGehaoftheAmericanUniversity

inBeirut.

On an official level, Syrian refugees

were never welcomed in Lebanon. Stiff

workandvisarestrictionsandlocalmea-

sures,suchascurfews,havebeeninplace

foryears.Whentherefugeesstartedarriv-

ingin2011,thegovernmentstoppedaid

agenciesfromsettingupformalcamps.

PoliticiansfearedthatiftheSyriansstayed

it wouldupsetthesectarianbalanceunder-

pinningLebanon’spower-sharingsystem.

In2015,whenSyrianrefugeeswereabouta

quarterofthepopulation,thegovernment

toldtheUnitedNationstostopregistering

newasylumcases.

Buttherecent campaignis morein-

tense.ThechargehasbeenledbytheFree

Patriotic Movement (fpm), a Maronite

Christianpartythatrulesinalliancewith

Hizbullah,a Shia militia-cum-party. Ge-

branBassil,theforeignministerandson-

in-lawofPresidentMichelAoun,alarmed

manywhenhetweetedaboutthepositive

“genetic” qualities of Lebanese in June

amida crackdownonforeignlabour.Sym-

patheticmediahavebroadcastfootageof

membersofthefpmyouthwingharassing

SyriansinBeirut.Policeraidshavetargeted

unlicensedSyrianworkers.“Ifyou’redying

fromhunger,whatareyou supposed to

do?”shoutsa Syriantaxidriver.“Ihaveto

worktolive.”

According to Lebanon’smain intelli-

genceagency,morethan170,000refugees

have already returned since the end of 2017,

either on their own or with the help of the

agency’s “voluntary return” scheme, which

buses ostensibly consenting refugees back

to Syria. In April Lebanon’s top defence

council issued orders to start deporting

Syrians who cross into Lebanon illegally.

Hundreds of Syrians, including army de-

fectors, have since been deported without

due process, according to aid groups. “This

is a red line that has been crossed,” says

Ghida Frangieh, a lawyer with Legal Agen-

da, a local advocacy group.

Those who want to send the Syrians

home note that Lebanon has more refugees

relative to its population than any other

country. (Half of Mexico could settle in the

United States and Lebanon would still

come first.) Officials say refugees strain

roads, hospitals, schools and electricity

and water supplies, while crowding Leba-

nese out of jobs. They suspect that many

Syrians cross the border just for the hand-

outs, and that aid workers are exaggerating

the crisis to justify their jobs. “Who is the

only loser here? Lebanon,” says Nicolas

Chedrawi of thefpm.

The actual impact of refugees on the

economy is less clear. Syrians do compete

with Lebanese for low-skilled jobs. But in-

creased demand for teachers, doctors and

other service-providers has created new

work, too. An injection of aid money has

boosted consumption. Most of Lebanon’s

problems, from power cuts to the non-col-

lection of rubbish, are not because of refu-

gees, but because of Lebanon’s dysfunc-

tional and corrupt politics.

Lebanese officials push the idea that

Syria is now safe. “That is stupid, stupid,

stupid,” says an aid worker. Dozens of civil-

ians have been killed recently, as the Syrian

government tries to retake the last major

rebel stronghold, in and around Idlib prov-

ince. The risk of arbitrary detention and

disappearance remain high. Young men

who return face military conscription.

Others are exposed to revenge attacks from

embittered neighbours or Syria’s many un-

ruly militias.

The authorities in Lebanon appear un-

deterred by the principle of non-refoule-

ment, which prohibits sending people back

to countries where they will face persecu-

tion. Other governments in the Middle East

and elsewhere are considering similar ac-

tions—and taking them. Turkey, which has

3.6m Syrian refugees, stands accused of de-

porting some of them to Idlib.

Many Lebanese think Mr Bassil is whip-

ping up nativist fervour to further his own

presidential ambitions. “In a way, he is our

Trump,” says Ahmad Fatfat, a former law-

maker with the Future Movement, a Sunni

party. The response from other politicians

has been muted. Most seem content to

scapegoat Syrian refugees, instead of tak-

ing responsibility for their own failures. 7

BEIRUT

Awaveofnativistirehasleftrefugeeswithnowheretoturn

SyriansinLebanon

Norefuge

A window into despair

All of this seems to unnerve Mr Sisi. On

June 26th Alaa was photographed cheering

for Egypt at an Africa Cup football match in

Cairo. The authorities revoked his fan id

card shortly after, barring him from future

matches. Last month he tweeted criticism

of a minister who quipped that those who

speak ill of Egypt should have their throats

cut. A sycophantic newspaper soon ac-

cused him of links to the banned Muslim

Brotherhood. Samir Sabri, a hyperactive

pro-government lawyer, sued him for “sol-

idarity with a terrorist group”.

This seems irrational. No one truly ex-

pects Alaa to challenge Mr Sisi. His patri-

mony would not protect him—even a for-

mer army chief who stood for the

presidency last year wound up in jail. But

the public has soured on Mr Sisi, who lacks

a political party or trusted allies (ironically,

his own sons are increasingly powerful

aides). “Mubarak had a regime. Sisi has

himself,” says an activist. The govern-

ment’s overreactions are signs of its weak-

ness, not Mr Mubarak’s strength. Coinci-

dentally, your correspondent noticed last

month that Egyptair no longer serves pro-

cessed cheese with its in-flight meals. 7