2019-08-24 The Economist - Continental Europe edition

(Tuis.) #1

30 Middle East & Africa The EconomistAugust 24th 2019


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heconcretewallsringingtheAl-Aw-
dahcampforSyrianrefugeesinLeba-
nonappearcheerful.Pinkheartsadornone
segment,SpongeBobSquarePantsanother.
Thewalls,though,aretheonlyremaining
tracesof 178 homesthatweredemolished
inJune,ostensiblyforbuilding-codeviola-
tions.“It’sanupsettingthing,”saysAbuJa-
wad,a longtimeresident.“Evenifitwas
onlytemporary,thiswaswhereyouraised
yourchildren.”
Thedemolitionsarepartofanincreas-
inglyvicious campaignagainst theesti-
mated1m-1.5mSyrianrefugeesinLebanon.
Overthepastfewmonths theLebanese
government has deported hundreds of
themandtightenedrestrictionsonthose
whoremain.Politicianshaveblamedthem
fora raftofeconomicproblems.Spurred
onbyincendiaryreportsinthepress,vigi-
lanteshaveattackedcampsandharassed
Syriansinthestreets.“Idon’tthinkthereis
anyscenariowherethisendswell,”says
CarmenGehaoftheAmericanUniversity
inBeirut.
On an official level, Syrian refugees
were never welcomed in Lebanon. Stiff
workandvisarestrictionsandlocalmea-
sures,suchascurfews,havebeeninplace
foryears.Whentherefugeesstartedarriv-
ingin2011,thegovernmentstoppedaid
agenciesfromsettingupformalcamps.
PoliticiansfearedthatiftheSyriansstayed
it wouldupsetthesectarianbalanceunder-
pinningLebanon’spower-sharingsystem.
In2015,whenSyrianrefugeeswereabouta
quarterofthepopulation,thegovernment
toldtheUnitedNationstostopregistering
newasylumcases.
Buttherecent campaignis morein-
tense.ThechargehasbeenledbytheFree
Patriotic Movement (fpm), a Maronite

Christianpartythatrulesinalliancewith
Hizbullah,a Shia militia-cum-party. Ge-
branBassil,theforeignministerandson-
in-lawofPresidentMichelAoun,alarmed
manywhenhetweetedaboutthepositive
“genetic” qualities of Lebanese in June
amida crackdownonforeignlabour.Sym-
patheticmediahavebroadcastfootageof
membersofthefpmyouthwingharassing
SyriansinBeirut.Policeraidshavetargeted
unlicensedSyrianworkers.“Ifyou’redying
fromhunger,whatareyou supposed to
do?”shoutsa Syriantaxidriver.“Ihaveto
worktolive.”
According to Lebanon’smain intelli-
genceagency,morethan170,000refugees

have already returned since the end of 2017,
either on their own or with the help of the
agency’s “voluntary return” scheme, which
buses ostensibly consenting refugees back
to Syria. In April Lebanon’s top defence
council issued orders to start deporting
Syrians who cross into Lebanon illegally.
Hundreds of Syrians, including army de-
fectors, have since been deported without
due process, according to aid groups. “This
is a red line that has been crossed,” says
Ghida Frangieh, a lawyer with Legal Agen-
da, a local advocacy group.
Those who want to send the Syrians
home note that Lebanon has more refugees
relative to its population than any other
country. (Half of Mexico could settle in the
United States and Lebanon would still
come first.) Officials say refugees strain
roads, hospitals, schools and electricity
and water supplies, while crowding Leba-
nese out of jobs. They suspect that many
Syrians cross the border just for the hand-
outs, and that aid workers are exaggerating
the crisis to justify their jobs. “Who is the
only loser here? Lebanon,” says Nicolas
Chedrawi of thefpm.
The actual impact of refugees on the
economy is less clear. Syrians do compete
with Lebanese for low-skilled jobs. But in-
creased demand for teachers, doctors and
other service-providers has created new
work, too. An injection of aid money has
boosted consumption. Most of Lebanon’s
problems, from power cuts to the non-col-
lection of rubbish, are not because of refu-
gees, but because of Lebanon’s dysfunc-
tional and corrupt politics.
Lebanese officials push the idea that
Syria is now safe. “That is stupid, stupid,
stupid,” says an aid worker. Dozens of civil-
ians have been killed recently, as the Syrian
government tries to retake the last major
rebel stronghold, in and around Idlib prov-
ince. The risk of arbitrary detention and
disappearance remain high. Young men
who return face military conscription.
Others are exposed to revenge attacks from
embittered neighbours or Syria’s many un-
ruly militias.
The authorities in Lebanon appear un-
deterred by the principle of non-refoule-
ment, which prohibits sending people back
to countries where they will face persecu-
tion. Other governments in the Middle East
and elsewhere are considering similar ac-
tions—and taking them. Turkey, which has
3.6m Syrian refugees, stands accused of de-
porting some of them to Idlib.
Many Lebanese think Mr Bassil is whip-
ping up nativist fervour to further his own
presidential ambitions. “In a way, he is our
Trump,” says Ahmad Fatfat, a former law-
maker with the Future Movement, a Sunni
party. The response from other politicians
has been muted. Most seem content to
scapegoat Syrian refugees, instead of tak-
ing responsibility for their own failures. 7

BEIRUT
Awaveofnativistirehasleftrefugeeswithnowheretoturn

SyriansinLebanon

Norefuge


A window into despair

All of this seems to unnerve Mr Sisi. On
June 26th Alaa was photographed cheering
for Egypt at an Africa Cup football match in
Cairo. The authorities revoked his fan id
card shortly after, barring him from future
matches. Last month he tweeted criticism
of a minister who quipped that those who
speak ill of Egypt should have their throats
cut. A sycophantic newspaper soon ac-
cused him of links to the banned Muslim
Brotherhood. Samir Sabri, a hyperactive
pro-government lawyer, sued him for “sol-
idarity with a terrorist group”.
This seems irrational. No one truly ex-

pects Alaa to challenge Mr Sisi. His patri-
mony would not protect him—even a for-
mer army chief who stood for the
presidency last year wound up in jail. But
the public has soured on Mr Sisi, who lacks
a political party or trusted allies (ironically,
his own sons are increasingly powerful
aides). “Mubarak had a regime. Sisi has
himself,” says an activist. The govern-
ment’s overreactions are signs of its weak-
ness, not Mr Mubarak’s strength. Coinci-
dentally, your correspondent noticed last
month that Egyptair no longer serves pro-
cessed cheese with its in-flight meals. 7
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