Farmer’s Weekly – 30 August 2019

Looming food insecurity

in Zimbabwe

D

roughts or floods always

have a devastating impact on

agriculture. But the second-

round effects on people’s livelihoods

are manageable in countries that are

economically stable, depending of course

on the magnitude of the impact.

However, for countries with economic

instability and low capability for

mitigation, the disaster continues months

after the extreme weather events.

This is precisely what we are witnessing

in Zimbabwe at the moment. To give some

context, it is important to mention that

Zimbabwe’s maize prospects, the country’s

staple crop, are not in good shape because

of a drought that delayed plantings at the

start of the 2018/2019 production season.

And when it finally rained, the downpour

was excessive, as was witnessed during

Cyclone Idai at the start of the year.

The 2018/2019 maize harvest is estimated

to be 800 000t, down 53% from the

previous year, according to data from

the US Department of Agriculture. The

hardships emanating from this poor

harvest, exacerbated by unstable economic

conditions, are being felt across the country.

The World Food Programme estimates that

more than one-third of Zimbabwe’s rural

population (or some 3,6 million people) will

be food-insecure by October. And this is set

to increase sharply to 5,5 million by January.

Had Zimbabwe been an economically

stable country (with efficient markets), the

effects of lower agricultural output would,

to a certain extent, have been buffered by

imports and government assistance.

But this is not the case in Zimbabwe.

The economy, political environment and

state resources remain fragile. The maize

markets cannot function efficiently, as

the state’s “hand is deep in the maize

bag”. Just last month, the Zimbabwean

government designatedthestate-owned

Grain MarketingBoardasthesolebuyer

of maize fromlocalfarmers.Thosewho

attempt to selltheirproduceoutsidethis

arrangementcouldfacepenalties.

While the governmentmighthave

introduced thismeasureasa wayof

ensuring consumers’well-beingafterfood

price inflationgallopedtomorethan126%

year-on-yearinMay,it is unlikelytowork.

Farmers arereportedlywithholdingtheir

produce insteadofdeliveringit totheGrain

Marketing Board.Thishadledtoa scarcity

of maize on themarket,andwillinevitably

not address thegovernment’sconcernsof

consumer well-being(affordablefood).

INITIATIVESAREYETTOMATERIALISE

Regardless ofwhereZimbabwe’sdomestic

maize policyends,thecountrystill

needs to importaboutonemilliontons

of maize in ordertofulfilitsannual

needs. It is notclearwhetherthisimport

activity has startedyet,asthelocal

authorities havenotpublishedanydata.

Looking atSouthAfrica’sexportdata,

which wouldbeoneofthekeycountries

Zimbabwe couldsourcesuppliesfrom,

Zimbabwe has,thusfar,notimportedany

maize from thiscountryinthe2019/

marketing year,whichstartedinMay.

Now that theGrainMarketingBoard

has been designatedasthesolebuyerof

maize from localfarmers,it is unclear

whether thispolicywillinfluenceprivate

businesses’ maizeimportactivities.

One organisationthatwoulddefinitely

purchase maizeonbehalfofZimbabweans

in the near futureis theWorldFood

Programme. Theorganisationrecently

indicated thatit wouldboostitshumanitarian

aid to ZimbabweuptoApril2020.South

Africa, ZambiaandMexicocouldbe

the potentialsuppliersofwhitemaize

to Zimbabwe.Asidefromwhitemaize,

there are a numberofcountriesthat

could potentiallysupplyyellowmaize

to Zimbabwe,withthemostlikelybeing

Brazil, Argentina,UkraineandtheUS.

These are allinitiativesthatareyet

to materialise.Asthingsstand,food

insecurity isloominginZimbabwe.

FARMERS ARE

WITHHOLDING

MAIZE INSTEAD OF

DELIVERING IT

AGRIBUSINESS

PERSPECTIVES
BY WANDILE SIHLOBO

Wandile Sihlobo is head of economic
and agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz.
Email him at [email protected].

OPINION & ANALYSIS

30 AUGUST 2019 farmer’sweekly 11